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These are the four key questions facing British Airways:
1. Can it survive in its current form?
BA is already attempting to morph into something different. It has had tortuously long negotiations to merge with the Spanish flag carrier Iberia.
However, There has been a change of command at Iberia, and BA chief executive Willie Walsh has admitted he is no nearer to sealing the deal.
BA wants a merger of not-quite-equals as Walsh has pledged BA will not own less than 53% of an enlarged group.
Whether a merger is a panacea for the ills of BA, and indeed Iberia, is another matter. Against Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, a BA-Iberia deal look more like a couple of drunks attempting to prop each other up.
Yet if they can do the deal there will be huge cost savings, including job carnage at Heathrow, and revenue-raising opportunities from working with their respective North American and Latin American networks.
But the greater prize for BA is a deal with American Airlines. European regulators say a tie-up would amount to market dominance on the North Atlantic. But if every airline looks like it may go bust, the regulators may relent.
2. Can Walsh survive the growing storm?
His record is patchy. Yes, he hit the much-vaunted 10% operating profit margin target in 2007-8, but that was in the biggest aviation boom in history.
When he joined BA in 2005 he was supposed to be the big cost-slasher. Yet four years later, he is still searching for thousands of job cuts.
Also, strategically some of his decisions have been questionable. When Iberia and AA are the deals that need to be done, he opened talks with Qantas, an airline 10,000 miles away. Er, why?
Last year's chest-thumping launch of BA's OpenSkies on the Continent was a disaster waiting to happen, given that BA already knew passenger traffic was beginning to plummet.
Walsh's future is in the hands of his chairman Martin Broughton. But if Walsh is deemed to have failed, his failure is also Broughton's.
3. Could the national flag carrier go bankrupt?
BA says not, especially as it has £2 billion at its disposal after its fund-raising.
But if the airline is working its way through £3 million a day, that only gets it through to spring 2011 - and Walsh is on record as saying he believes the aviation slump will continue to 2012.
Falling passengers numbers, down 1.5 million a year, are not the only crisis. BA has a £3 billion black hole in its pensions schemes.
Ahead of key negotiations with pension trustees, Walsh has said the airline has no way of filling it. The Pensions Regulator could be called in, and it has the power to compel BA to put in money.
4. Would the Government bail BA out if it had to?
Broughton says BA does not believe in state aid. Taxpayers would also have the right to ask: is this a good use of public money?
Reader views (1)
What has Mr Walsh done to BA ! His staff are the best in the industry !!! To me has has lost the plot and seems to be a real bully !!!!
- Adrian Francis, london, 17/07/2009 21:15
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