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Broker calling a halt to the Bovis bandwagon in prices ‘downturn’

Rosamund Urwin
7 Aug 2009


Signs of life in the housing market have buoyed Bovis Homes of late, but Goldman Sachs reckons that it's now too late to get in on the rally.

The City big-hitter today removed the housebuilder from its conviction buy list and warned that it expects residential property prices to start falling again soon, dropping by around 10% in the next 12 months.

Although analysts have upped their forecasts for sales volumes by 18% after Bovis reported a pick-up in demand and an increase in the number of househunters nosing around their properties, they reckon these gains have been priced into shares.

Bovis shares have surged 27.5% since mid-June, compared with a 20% rise from the rest of the sector, but Goldman's gloom sent them down 3p to 501p.

Shares in London were on course for their highest close this year despite Royal Bank of Scotland's miserable results making investors jittery in early trading. The boost came at lunchtime from much-better-than-expected jobs figures from the US. The benchmark index had spent the morning heavily in the red but, after the publication of non-farm payrolls, recovered to trade up 15.25 points at 4705.78.

The US economy shed 247,000 jobs last month, compared with a 467,000 loss in June. Analysts had expected a 325,000 loss. The figures lifted the mood in New York, where the Dow Jones shot up 52.52 points to 9308.78.

RBS's results largely put an end to banking stocks' recent rally amid fears the crisis is far from over. The taxpayer-owned bank dropped 6¼p to 47.2p, falling back below the 50½p average price the Government paid for its stake. RBS's results pushed Lloyds Banking Group down 4½p to 100¼p, but Barclays bucked the trend, 6½p up at 360½p.

Could the worst be over for ITV? Plummeting advertising revenues pushed the broadcaster to a half-year loss of £105 million yesterday, but some in the City have now turned more bullish about its prospects.

JPMorgan points out that the results, though grim, beat forecasts and reckons the crash in earnings has now bottomed out.

Its optimism was fuelled by comments from executive chairman Michael Grade that September's order book for advertising spots had received a boost from a rush of late money. The broker thinks this means ITV could do better than the 7% drop in revenues estimated for next month.

Fellow heavyweight Citigroup has upped its target for the shares from 47p to 55p and is advising clients to buy. Jefferies International, Bernstein Research and Investec were all party-poopers, however, flagging up a triple-whammy of worries.

Jefferies has jacked up its price target from just 16p to 36p, but warns that consumer spending will not recover much until next year, depressing ad sales. Bernstein thinks ITV's ballooning pension deficit is a major concern, while Investec says doubts remain over the broadcaster's turnaround strategy and believes the recovery has already been priced into the shares. But ITV added to yesterday's gains, rising 0.3p to 42.9p, within reach of its high for the year.

Charity and the stock market may be unlikely bedfellows, but they were brought together today when not-for-profit Housing 21 made a bid for Claimar Care, the Aim-listed group which provides care in the home for the elderly and infirm. Shares in Claimar Care rocketed 18.5p, or 148%, to 32p after the social landlord made a cash offer at 39p a pop.

Drugs tiddler Antisoma dipped ½p to 28¼p after abandoning development of a potential breast cancer drug. The trial has been scrapped after disappointing results. Broker Canaccord Adams thinks the shares still look attractive, but cut its price target from 76p to 68p in response.

If you bet on a bookie, take a punt on William Hill, not Ladbrokes. That was the verdict of Evolution Securities, which reviewed the gambling sector.

While results this week showed trading has toughened for both, analysts say William Hill is in a better position than its rival, with gaming revenues growing particularly strongly. But investors shrugged off their advice, with William Hill dropping 1.8p to 168.3p and Ladbrokes 3.6p up at 174.8p.

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