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Some experts say the recession is all but over — not Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
The director of research at stockbroking house Charles Stanley is issuing a note to clients today which sets out a grim set of possibilities for the world economy.
In particular, America's finances are so precarious they could soon stamp all over recent green shoots.
“We believe that the US economy is totally insolvent,” he writes.
“In such a condition it becomes imperative for the US administration to try and convince the world that demand for Treasury bonds remains strong. We already know that the only serious source of demand for these Treasuries is the Federal Reserve itself. We also know that if the US economy's dire state became common knowledge, demand both for new and existing US debt would collapse, causing interest rates to skyrocket, followed shortly thereafter by a collapse in the US credit rating,” adds Batstone-Carr.
The analyst, a regular on TV finance shows, warns the “mind-blowing” amount of debt held by the US is higher than it had at the start of the Great Depression.
His rivals in the City have lately turned positive on the prospects for the economy. Yesterday Jim O'Neill, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, said he felt the UK probably emerged from recession in June. He was also fairly bullish about America.
France and Germany saw their economies grow, slightly, in the second quarter.
