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Short-sellers' fingers start twitching as banks go cheap to raise cash

Mickey Clark
8 Oct 2009


Selling short can be a perilous manoeuvre in the current stock market climate.

But you could see Harry hedge fund and his mates sorely tempted today as they watched the High Street banks come under new selling pressure.

Lloyds Banking Group, 43%-owned by the taxpayer, was among the biggest blue-chip fallers.

The price dropped 1.3p to 94.2p, after touching 90.6p, as more than 150 million shares changed hands.

There is talk that Lloyds is about to tap shareholders for £15 billion and sell off £10billion of assets to avoid the taxpayer having to step in and take a larger share of the bank.

It was only four months ago that Lloyds tapped shareholders for £4 billion at a heavily discounted 38p.

The hedge funds are now wondering whether shareholders will be willing to cough-up again in order to avoid heavy dilution.

Royal Bank of Scotland may also be in the same boat. It is 73%-controlled by the taxpayer and wants to raise at least £4 billion.

Its shares lost 1p at 48.6p. Barclays was also 2p lower at 368.2p.

But the prospect of multi-billion-pound cash calls did little to spoil the party for investors generally.

After yesterday's pause for breath, share prices were making headway again today, although prices were trading below their best levels.

Naturally enough, the miners made much of the running on the back of higher raw materials prices and an expected pick-up in demand.

Vedanta Resources helped to lead with a rise of 53p at 2158¾p after producing better-than-expected second-quarter production numbers.

Antofagasta was also up 22p at 820p, and Anglo American rose 62½p to 2160p.

In fact, miners accounted for six out of the 10 best blue-chip performers

Their heavy weighting also provided a boost to the FTSE 100 index, which sported a rise of 18.29 at 5127.19, after touching 5172.82.

The Bank of England's decision to leave interest rate on hold at half-a-percent for the seventh month in a row came as little surprise.

Wall Street tacked higher this afternoon as investors responded to monthly sales numbers from retailers such as Target and Macy's. The Dow Jones rose 41.72 to 9767.30.

Back in London, Vodafone came under the hammer, falling 2.6p to 134.4p to reflect competition worries in India and a change of strategy by its American rival AT&T.

BT Group put on 3.5p at 134.3p after Exane BNP Paribas raised its rating from underperform to outperform.

Oil explorers were also on the move after the price of crude climbed back above $70 a barrel.

Tullow Oil put on 54p at 1224p, with Cairn Energy adding 50p at 2820p and Soco International was up 33p to 1466p.

House prices should continue their recovery during the next year because of a shortage of housing supply and that, in turn, should be good news for the builders.

That is the view of Morgan Stanley, which has begun coverage of the sector with Taylor Wimpey, 1.5p firmer at 44.8p, and Barratt Developments, 13.9p dearer at 263.1p, as its two main picks.

It rates both companies overweight with a 64p price target for Wimpey and 250p, ex the rights issue, for Barratt.

That implies they have scope for improvement of at least 50% in their share prices over the next year.

Morgan Stanley claims Taylor Wimpey has been undervalued with the market failing to take into account the true value of its US division.

Barratt continues to trade below its tangible net asset value and has taken action to strengthen its balance sheet.

Persimmon, up 9.1p at 459.7p, and Berkeley, 3½p better at 909½p, are rated equalweight.

The broker says: "We expect house prices to benefit from a dramatic correction in housing supply as new starts collapse from 217,000 in 2007 to 80,000 this year. The stock of unsold homes remains at record lows."

A gradual improvement in mortgage lending will encourage builders to increase volumes from extremely depressed levels short term given the low cost of bringing mothballed sites back into production and government initiatives to boost activity.

It adds: "But we believe supply will be constrained in the long term as developers struggle to acquire new land."

Morgan Stanley has lowered its sights on Yell, 0.05p easier at 59.7p, from 115p to 90p to reflect weaker revenue trends and the dilutive effect of its £500 million rights issue.

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