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China ‘will be the world’s biggest economy by 2027’
17.11.09
Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast for China's economic growth, predicting it will overtake America to become the world's biggest economy in 2027 — 14 years earlier than expected.
The US investment bank calculates China's gross domestic product will hit $5.4 trillion (£3.2 trillion) a year by 2010 — up more than $1.1 trillion in dollar terms since the end of 2008 — at a time when most Western economies have been flat lining.
Writing exclusively for the Evening Standard, Goldman's chief economist Jim O'Neill said: “When we first suggested back in 2003 that China could possibly challenge the US to be the world's number one by 2041, many thought it was a pipedream, and had virtually no chance. In fact, it is possible a lot sooner, and indeed, we now think it could happen within 20 years — in fact 2027 to be precise, so 18 years.”
China, the world's third-largest economy, is on course to usurp Japan next year after its GDP more than trebled in value between 2001 and 2008 from $1.3 trillion to $4.3 billion.
“Its rise in that short space of time has been the equivalent to creating nearly two new Britains in seven years,” he said.
He added that London is well-placed to benefit because of the City's time zone between Asia and America and the fact English is the international language of business and the internet.
Reader views (2)
They will be number one only if they maintain there lack of human rights,actually they will get worse as pressure
is put on China to improve them.
- David Nigel Braham, Milan Italy
The wonders of almost infinate supply of cheap labour and an economy whose interets rates and key ecnonomical parameters are not based in any reality known to capitalism!
China is the next bubble, beware!
- Hansel, London
