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Boris races ahead in mayor poll
Pippa Crerar, Political Correspondent17.03.08
Boris Johnson has soared ahead of Ken Livingstone in the race to be Mayor, an Evening Standard poll reveals.
The most detailed survey yet puts the Tory candidate 12 points ahead, suggesting many Londoners feel it is time for change.
The YouGov poll has Mr Johnson on 49 per cent, the Mayor on 37 per cent and Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick on 12.
Mr Livingstone has been rocked by allegations of cronyism and corruption at City Hall and the London Development Agency leading to the resignation of key aide Lee Jasper.
His attempts to fight back by discrediting Mr Johnson's transport plans and questioning his competence appear to have had limited impact so far. But polling experts believe the findings say more about the view that Mr Livingstone has over-stayed his welcome than they do about the
success of Mr Johnson's efforts to rebrand himself as a serious politician. YouGov questioned a representative sample of 1,005 Londoners online between 12 and 14 March. A total of 17 per cent said they did not yet know who they would support, suggesting there was all to play for.
Mr Livingstone's vote, according to YouGov, has fallen from 44 per cent in January to 39 per cent in February to 37 per cent. Mr Johnson's has gone from 40 per cent to 44 and 49 per cent today, while Mr Paddick went up from eight to 12 per cent but this month stayed static.
The change can be explained by Labour voters deserting Mr Livingstone and by Londoners who have no clear political allegiance switching from the Mayor to Mr Johnson. The vote share of the minor parties was more squeezed than ever.
In today's survey, Mr Johnson was particularly popular among women voters. He also picked up 53 per cent of the 18 to 24-year-olds, compared with Mr Livingstone's 41 per cent.
He was also ahead of the Mayor among 25 to 34-year-olds and 35 to 44-year-olds and in the over-55s, where he got 53 per cent compared with Mr Livingstone's 29 per cent. The only age group in which the Mayor came ahead was 45 to 54-yearolds where he won 47 per cent to Mr Johnson's 38 per cent. Exactly 50 per cent of the ABC1 social group said they would vote for Mr Johnson, while 33 per cent backed Mr Livingstone and 14 per cent Mr Paddick.
The Tory challenger could win the race on first preferences because he has a realistic chance of taking more than 50 per cent of the vote. If nobody achieves 50 per cent, the number of second preference votes are added. Mr Johnson got 20 per cent share of second preference votes to Mr Livingstone's 17 per cent.
A spokesman for Mr Johnson welcomed "these encouraging results," adding: "There is still a long way to go, however." A spokesman for the Mayor said: "If the agenda of the election shifts to the key issues for London then Ken will win."
• A poll for the Greater London Authority says 61 per cent of Londoners support the Mayor's plans for a £25 congestion charge on 4x4s.
Reader views (37)
" Taxi For Ken "... Via The Job Centre P45 In Hand..
- Boris Johnson, London
The prospect of having in power a buffoon, backed by secret advisors within big business is a frightening prospect for Londoners... this would never happen in America!
- Brian Hughes, London, UK
I'm very concerned about Boris. I think his appeal lies in the fact that's a loveable buffoon and that's not the world's best reason for putting someone inexperienced into an office this important. And when the BNP tells me I should vote for Boris, that's all the incentive I need to vote for Ken.
- Jane Horley, London England
Surly its time for change! Ken might be OK if your either very rich or very poor but for the average hard working non-benefit claimant trying to go about his day to day business to make a living and feed his family, Ken is a leach who has a pet hate for non office workers. Using cctv to spy on hard working law abiding citizens and dish out fines for breathing. Ken, we can't all be as lucky as you and sit in a comfy chair working out ways to generate more money, hopping in black cabs (unless of course a tv camera is with you, then you go by tube, naturally).
Before you vote have a look at your council tax bill to see how much you pay Kon Livingstone, for him to waste and give to corrupt organisations such as Lee Jaspers. How many investigations is it now being carried out about dodgy dealings? Surely it's time for a change.
- Aubury Partridge, Bromley, kent
I am a natural Labour voter but I can't support legalised theft.
Stealing off of ORDINARY people with punative parking charges and other "creative" forms of taxation such as speed cameras where one suffers the loss of a quarter of one's drivers licence for minor infractions of the speed limit in the middle of the night when travelling perfectly safely and stuffing people with £100 fines for overstaying on meters for 15 minutes is not my idea of social democracy or freedom to any extent. The law is supposed to be there to protect people; not used as a tool to heavy handedly use the power of the State itself to extort money from people who are effectively powerless to do anything about it.
My car *IS* my freedom! Of course I have to take into consideration other people's freedom too but things are now that bad that one tiny infraction like nipping inside 2 cars early to turn left in a bus lane is met with the ludicrous invoice in the post!
I have always obeyed the spirit of the law... But when doing so renders me liable to be bled dry by parasites in authority it's either time to rise against the oppression or have a change.
It will soon be goodbye, Ken.
Please don't come back!
- Paul From Barking, Barking, England
Boris would be a welcome breath of fresh air after all the obfuscations and cant of Livingstone and his charmless cronies.
- James Elliott, Eastbourne UK
Here here! It's about time Londoners had a Mayor who actually makes changes to improve the standard of living and improves our great city.
Under Ken's ruthless and draconian regime we have had relentless taxes forced upon us, above inflation fare rises, dangerous bendy buses and violent crime on the up.
Ken treats us Londoners with utter contempt and ignorance, choosing to use his storm troopers at TfL in conjunction with bailiffs to victimise, bully and extort millions from decent, hard-working people.
Vote Boris I say!
- Daniel Howard, London,UK
About time - Ken's hubris is incredible! Let's show him what happens when there's a "real consultation" with the people!!
- Raghav, London
Please, anybody but Livingstone!
- David W, Plumstead, UK
Great news! Everyone should vote Boris and tell their friends. First let's get Livingstone out and then let's get Labour out. They NEVER work.
- David Marshall, London, UK
Ken had his time. Boris Johnson will bring change to London's key issues.
- Olivia Dunk, Hackney
I don't think Boris is a clown. The political scene, locally and nationally, has grown dismal. Ken has become old and sour. Now, when someone human comes along, he/she looks outlandish by comparison. Not a clown. Conspicuous by being normal.
- Paul Griffith, London
Neither Boris the Clown nor un-likable Ken will be getting my vote. Bye bye Livingstone but not hello Boris.
- Real, London
Boris is a public school educated snob who has no place governing Londoners. London is a diverse city so why should we have an English, white toff in charge?
- Dave, SE1
Come on Boris!!
Ken is an insult - we cannot have him representing the people of London; and no more of Ken or Gordon's waste of our money.
- Manav, Camden, UK
Boris will fail as a diplomat in London. His record of thoughtless commentary is second to none. Still he is the Gilderoy Lockheart of the Conservative party and "Celebrity is as Celebrity does". I seem to remember him being sacked for dishonesty by Michael Howard. As for Ken I think despite his many faults he has improved London overall over his tenure and there is no danger of our lives being made more hell-like with dis-investment in public transport and the police. The Conservatives voted against the increases in police numbers and truly have nothing to offer the people of London, the beating heart of Britain...except of course short-term greed, increased crime that results and even less punctual buses and tube trains. Better the devil we know I think.
- Ralph Baldwin, London, UK
I think Mr Johnson is a serious threat to stability in London. If he continues to lose control his mouth and offend ethnic groups. I also fail to see how reducing investment via tax cuts is going to make the Tube/Buses or even driving through London any easier, never mind fewer Police.
- Ralph Baldwin, London
Ken do me a favour-queue up for an Ealing tram, remember them? According to TFL polls we all wanted them except for Ealing residents and that's why labour lost Ealing. Now it's your turn.
- Paul Lask, London, UK
When will we see Boris's policies really published and be criticised by his opponents?
- Harold, London, England
Great news. London needs to lighten up a little and this may help!
- Chris, London
Livingstone started well but like so many politicians in power too long has lost his sense of reality. I'm all for the CC but £6500 pa to drive in Central London is pure madness.
Bye Bye Livingstone hello Johnson.
- Oliver Wright, London, England
Londoners need to wake up and take a reality check. Johnson offers no real solutions to the Capital's problems; the congestion charge would remain,fares would increase and there would be even more guns on the streets as police numbers are cut. More homeless people on the streets as house prices increase in a free for all. That is the reality.
- Dhanraj, Basildon, Essex
Who will we have to complain about when Ken has gone?
- Nobby Clark, Perth, the Scottish one
Hoping we can wave goodbye to tin-pot dictator Livingstone soon and then good riddance to Gordon Bean soon afterwards. The City and the country will be much better without them both.
- Richard, Greater London, England
Time for Red Kenny to go, he is not wanted by Londoners any more, and reminds me of how arrogant and out of touch Maggie was at the end of her term.
- Neil Grinsell, london
A message for Livingstone - pack your bags and get out
- Edriordan, wisbech
I hope Ken Livingstone has to drive a city bus after he loses the next election.
YOU GO BORIS!
- Deezee, London
One of the problems of trying to appeal all the time to minority groups is that you only get the support of the minority. Did no one tell you this, Ken, as you threw the majority of Londoners' money away? Time to say 'bye bye'!
- Peter Johns, Nice, France
Bendy buses that have led to some horrific accidents, double decker buses without proper ventilation, unnecessary traffic calming measures which have lead to appalling congestion, costly bicycle lanes for non-existing cyclists, planning permissions for ugly skyscrapers ...the legacy of Mr Livingstone. Hope that Boris wins.
- Nick, London UK
Boris.......As a cyclist, he sees it as the public does, he could be a breath of fresh air for London, Ken has been ok for the capital, however his polices are going stale, time for a change? Its not about the party its about the man. Will Boris give up the bike for the car if he gets into office? Hopefully he won't, it would be great for PR if he didn't change. I'll give Boris the vote, why? because I like the guy.
- Alan Kerr, Greenwich, UK
It could well be that people have really had enough of Livingstone's relentless policy of If it moves Tax it and if it stands still tax it again.
London as been slowly strangled by the congestion charge and many small companies have been forced out of the central area and many have closed altogether.
- Kenherts, hertford
I recently had to travel from Essex to City Airport in the early hours. The congestion was horrific. The pollution must be tremendous. Just getting round traffic islands was beyond belief at the chaos. It was every man for himself. I have never seen such selfish drivers. Imagine some people do this every day. The millions of litres of petrol that are wasted everyday is uncountable, and now this government wants to build new towns out there. It is beyond all common sense. I think the only solution is to ban cars from all roads into London between certain hours and make people get on the buses and trains. Of course, buses and trains must be available. I will never travel this way again.
- Frederick, London UK
Livingstone is unfit for any public office, and should be removed as soon as possible
- Chris Neave, London UK
As usual, large numbers of people are not swinging
'towards' one of the major parties (in this case, Boris Johnson's Tories), but rather more 'against' another, i.e. Ken Livingstone and Labour.
- E R Glass, London, England
Whether Boris Johnson would be any good as our next Mayor for London is anyone's guess. That said, what is CERTAIN is that it is NOW time for London to have a NEW Mayor. Ken Livingstone is WELL PAST his "Sell By" date! Indeed, I doubt that Boris Johnson could make "worse appointments" at City Hall than Ken Livingstone did!
Let's face it, if Boris Johnson doesn't work out then we can always replace "him" next time around. But let's give him a chance . . . Surely he couldn't be any worse than Ken Livingstone, could he?
- Fraser, Telford Park
A poll for the GLA supports the £25.00 rip off for 4 x 4's- I doubt that very much!
Why doesn't Red Ken come clean and admit that he intends to extend the Rip Off zone East and South, just see the what the voters will make of that?
Its going to happen folks, think carefully before you vote.
- George Dorman, Bexleyheath
Who do the GLA poll? Its not believable that 61% of Londoners support the £25 C Charge on 4x4's, I am afraid. More spin.
- Aeh, Fulham
