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For the past few months my comrades have been urging me to vote for evil. I must forget about Ken Livingstone's decision to ignore London's liberal Muslims and ally with the far Right, they say, and banish his Jew-baiting from my mind.
The condemnation of his own Labour government's modest proposals to tax Indian tycoons and Russian oligarchs cannot be held against him. Nor should I mention his friendship with speculative developers whose grotesque high-rises will disfigure the London skyline well into the 21st century.
As for the public money that has disappeared into organisations run by friends of his cronies - come on, Nick, you're a man of the world. There's no need to get on your high horse. Just shrug your shoulders and remember that the only way to stop Boris Johnson is to vote for Livingstone - the "lesser evil". For the past few months my comrades have been urging me to vote for evil.
But is it? The Standard's poll this week showed Johnson 12 points ahead. As it stands, Livingstone can't be re-elected because Johnson is almost home. If his popularity starts to fall, however, the candidate most likely to beat him is Brian Paddick.
This may seem an odd claim. The Lib-Dems are a distant third, and a vote for Paddick looks wasted. But everywhere I go I meet people caught in a Left-wing dilemma: we don't want Johnson but we won't be able to look at our faces in the mirror if we support Livingstone.
If enough of us were to swing behind Paddick, however, London's perverse election system would be on our side. Here's how. If no candidate gets 50 per cent of first preferences, then a run-off takes place. The second choices of voters for the eliminated minor parties are then counted and added to the leaders' totals.
Obviously, hardly anyone who put Livingstone as their first choice will put Johnson as their second, and vice versa. But Paddick will be the second preference for most Labour and Tory supporters.
It will take nothing less than a mass defection of voters from Ken to the Lib-Dems in the first round - but if Paddick can get to the last round, he wins because a majority of second choice votes will come to him. But if Johnson is ahead and faces a final showdown with Livingstone, Johnson wins because the second preferences of Liberal-Democrat voters split evenly between Tories and Labour, as you would expect them to.
It's a sign of how malicious and incompetent the Mayor's campaign has been that he has smeared his rival as a "racist," which Johnson isn't, instead of a buffoon, which is how he often seems to many. Perhaps Johnson will give him a break he doesn't deserve by making a spectacular blunder between now and polling day.
A lot can change, in other words. But as things stand, if you want a candidate who can reform the police, take a Leftish stand on social, environmental and economic issues and beat the Conservatives, then Paddick, not Livingstone, is your man.
Reader views (9)
Please explain to me why you consider Ken 'evil'? I see someone who is humane and dedicated to his job, but not perfect. I find it incredible the degree to which people like yourself in the media judge and condemn others. Are you perfect? If your professional and personal life was inspected through the media lens how would it fare? Would it be blameless? Why do you faultless guardians of our moral welfare so rarely turn that blinding beam of judgement onto yourselves or your editors? When will a story appear in the Evening Standard denouncing one of your own senior staff for sexual or financial impropriety and speculating on their suitability to contribute or run a newspaper.
hmm..never I suspect. Jesus who was probably just slightly more moral and blameless in conduct than you suggested that it was best to 'judge not in case you are judged'. But that would put you out of job wouldn't it? Why don't you do everyone a favour and focus your obvious forensic and discriminatory talents on the policies- are they effective? What really works?
- Nick, London, 28/04/2008 00:42
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I would rather vote for my own foot than for Livingstone. But a vote for Paddick is an interesting option. They have not been in power for decades and have a very small chance of winning a General Election. All that said, the Lib Dems do very well in local elections and make a very good job of it. Although I think a character like Boris would make a good Mayor and do a lot of good for London, Paddick does make a good choice. If this becomes a two horse race between them, either candidate winning would not upset me. Livingstone getting in again however would leave me wondering if I should have put my foot forward as a candidate.
- Mike, London, 01/04/2008 13:18
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Nick, I generally agree with you a lot, but if you can't bring yourself to vote for Ken, you might as well go for Boris. If Simon Hughes could only poll 17% with a bigger campaign, do you really think some confusing voters with a call to shift to Paddick will stop the final vote being anything other than Ken v Boris. If you can't vote for Ken then fair enough be honest and support the other person, but don't waste peoples time when this election is about a simple choice that will make some people uncomfortable but has to be faced up to eventually. I hope you vote for Ken, but in the end what I find far worse are people who bottle it! Will you tell us the week after the election how you voted. Assuming it is now Paddick 1, the interesting question is what will be your 2. Ironically in Richmond, Orpington, Kingston and Sutton there are loads of Labour voters who normally tactically vote Lib Dem who are relishing voting Labour in an election where their vote counts. Look at the ward distribution of the 2004 results for the evidence of this. A London wide election enables people whose party is in third place to express their true view. Your column won't change that.
- Charlie, Morden, Surrey, 31/03/2008 18:00
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I agree with Nick. Paddick can beat Boris whilst it looks more and more as if Ken is dead in the water. At least the Lib Dem has real hands on experience of policing!
- Stephen, Lambeth, 31/03/2008 16:31
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Excellent article. I agree. Paddick is the only chance of defeating Johnson. I hope you Londoners wake up to this in time.
- Nigel, Northampton, UK, 27/03/2008 15:42
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Nick is quite right that Brian Paddick can win and he would be an excellent Mayor. He actually knows all about policing, which is by far the most important responsibility of the London Mayor and Assembly.
The Libdems have been doing very well in actual Council by elections in London lately, never mind the opinion polls which don't actually count on polling day.
Ken Livingstone is discredited and unelectable - and Boris Johnson cannot be regarded as a serious candidate -in Margaret Thatcher's phrase, he has never run a whelk stall.
- Michael Hall, Orpington Kent, 27/03/2008 14:34
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What do you mean "perverse" election system? It is eminently sensible and means the candidate who wins has the backing of the majority of the population. Much better than the ridiculous first-past-the-post nightmare we have for Westminster. No-one has to fill in their second preference if they don't want to.
- Rober, London NW6, 26/03/2008 18:54
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Nick you have lost the plot if you think Ken is worse than Boris. Why don't you just vote for Boris anyway - since you are so determined to hand him victory?
- Howard, Cheshire, 21/03/2008 12:07
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Nick, your column today shows you've been reading too much of your own headline-grabbing claims. Your analysis of how the far-left has gone to bed with right-wing Islamist has been very insightful. But you're now going about taring everyone with the same brush, and shown that you have left your senses, let alone the Left. Livingstone isn't perfect, but he's done a fantastic job for this city. Branding him as 'evil' and fooling yourself that Paddick is even remotely close to the left shows how little you care about the prospect of handing London back to Tory control.
So I don't expect you'll change your views on this, but don't pretend you're still on the left!
- Alon Or-Bach, London, UK, 19/03/2008 23:04
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