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Everything still to fight for, says defiant Ken
Pippa Crerar, Political Correspondent03.04.08
Ken Livingstone is facing a fight for his political life, a new poll confirmed today.
The Guardian/ICM telephone poll puts Boris Johnson two per cent ahead of the Mayor - showing the contest for City Hall will go to the wire.
The poll comes after a YouGov poll for the Evening Standard on Monday put Mr Johnson 10 points ahead.
Today's survey will bring some relief to the Mayor's faltering campaign. His aides claimed it showed the gap between the two men was closing.
But it confirms Mr Johnson's position as frontrunner - making him favourite in every poll since the campaign got under way in earnest last month.
The ICM survey put Mr Johnson on 51 per cent and his Labour rival on 49 per cent in the final run-off after second preferences have been counted under the alternative voting system.
Among Londoners who were certain to vote, Mr Johnson is eight points ahead of Mr Livingstone, the poll showed. The Tory candidate would get 48 per cent of the vote compared with the Labour Mayor's 40 per cent, the ICM survey for the Guardian showed.
Mr Johnson was the first choice of 42 per cent of Londoners, compared with Mr Livingstone on 41 per cent and Lib-Dem Brian Paddick on only 10 per cent, the poll found.
Mr Johnson's spokeswoman said: "The only poll that matters is that on 1 May. We will continue to work as hard as possible to get our message of change across on the issues that matter, such as crime."
Mr Livingstone, who has been backed by a series of Guardian commentators, said: "As the election gets closer Londoners are concentrating on the big issues that will affect their lives - transport, crime, housing, community relations, the environment and the ability to practically run London. That's where I'm picking up support and Boris Johnson is losing ground."
He said the poll showed that "there is everything to fight for over the next four weeks".
"The fact that people see it is almost a dead heat in the polls will encourage people to turn out because they know their vote will really make a difference this time."
However, polling experts said the result showed Mr Johnson could still pull off a spectacular victory and that turnout would be crucial.
The outcome is likely to be decided by the second-choice votes of Lib-Dems and minor parties including the Greens, who have endorsed Mr Livingstone, and the BNP, who yesterday suggested supporters gave their second vote to Mr Johnson.
The minor parties picked up seven per cent of voters in the ICM poll. Their second preferences split very narrowly in favour of the Tories, which could be enough to secure Mr Johnson's path to City Hall.
However, Mr Paddick has insisted he will not ask his supporters to back either of his main rivals, hoping instead one of them will implode before polling day.
The ICM poll of 1,002 Londoners found just over half thought Mr Livingstone had been good for London, even if they did not intend to back him this time, against 39 per cent who said he had been bad for the capital.
As with the YouGov poll, the Mayor was ahead on which candidate voters thought would be best for the capital's ethnic minorities - 64 per cent of non-white voters said he had done a good job, compared with 46 per cent of white voters.
Mr Livingstone came ahead of Mr Johnson on both transport and environment policy, but fell dramatically behind when voters were asked who was the most honest candidate. The Mayor's campaign for re-election has been dogged by allegations of corruption and cronyism at City Hall.
Experts said the YouGov poll already reflected the opinion of people more inclined to vote because it uses a panel of people who are politically engaged.
YouGov president Peter Kellner said: "Given the history of telephone polls in London and given their certain-to-vote figures, if I were Ken I would be very worried. Telephone pollsters are more likely to get nonvoters than we are so it's more important for them to filter than us."
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Reader views (11)
Here's a sample of the latest views published. You can click view all to read all views that readers have sent in.
With transfers, sadly it is unlikely that Boris will win.
- Michael Riley, London
Is someone living in Henley referring to 'people with watermelon smiles' really an alternative to Ken ?
- Alan, Islington
How does one call a supporter of a supporter of terrorism?
How sad to see those hoping for change in City Hall failing to bring up Red Ken's relationship with petro-dictator Hugo Chavez. Mind you debate is being dragged to green issues, yet Ken's 'oil deal' with Chavez is not mentioned. Debate is being dragged to security, yet the fact that Livingstone buddy Chavez is about to be exposed as a supporter of FARC narcoterrorists, by Interpol nonetheless, goes unheard. Red Ken fails to declare his directorship of the Venezuelan Information Centre, yet no journalist picks on that one...
- Alek Boyd, Marbella, Spain
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