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Boris is 13 points ahead in Mayor race
Pippa Crerar, Political Correspondent07.04.08
Boris Johnson has a 13-point lead over Ken Livingstone in the latest Evening Standard YouGov poll, published today.
He is up two points on last week's rating to 49 points, with the Mayor down one point to 36, the poll of more than 1,000 Londoners showed.
But the Mayor's campaign said it was launching an official complaint against YouGov, accusing the poll firm of using "flawed methodology".
A spokeswoman claimed YouGov was"misleading the public" and failing to take into account London's ethnic minority population.
The Tory candidate's lead, the biggest yet, suggests he is on course to become the next Mayor of London but has raised fears in his camp that complacency could set in among his supporters, leading to some not turning out.
Aides stressed there is still "a very long way to go" and every vote counts.
Tory insiders claimed their own internal polling put the two main candidates much closer - proving nothing could be taken for granted.
In today's poll, Lib-Dem Brian Paddick remained static on 10 per cent and Green Sian Berry on two per cent.
However, once second choice votes are allocated, the Tory candidate leads 56 to 44, which is no change from last week, suggesting Mr Livingstone has won back some second preference support, in particular from Lib-Dem voters.
The poll was mostly carried out before revelations on Thursday night and Friday that Mr Livingstone had fathered three secret children and Mr Johnson had taken cannabis and cocaine.
A spokeswoman for Mr Johnson said: "We hope Boris Johnson's message of change in London on the issues that matter such as fighting crime and antisocial behaviour are getting through to Londoners. However there is still a very long way to go. We think it will go to the wire and every vote will count."
His lead puts him in a tricky position as voters can stay away from the ballot box if they do not think their vote will matters. Mr Livingstone's team would also prefer to see a relatively small gap as it would convince activists to continue to work as hard as possible --rather than just giving up.
However, the poll suggests many Londoners feel it is time for a change at City Hall. YouGov questioned a representative sample of 1003 Londoners online between 2 and 4 April. A total of 13 per cent did not yet know who they would support, four points down from the last poll, suggesting many voters are beginning to make up their minds.
Mr Livingstone's vote, according to YouGov, has fallen from 44 per cent in January to 39 per cent in February. It remained static at 37 per cent in March and has today dropped to 36 per cent.
Mr Johnson's lead has crept up from 40 per cent to 44 per cent, then 49 per cent, dropping to 47 per cent last week and back up to 49 per cent today, while Mr Paddick, who launched his manifesto today, went up from eight to 12 per cent but has remained at 10 per cent since. Last week an ICM/Guardian poll showed the race was neck-and-neck with Mr Johnson just a point in the lead, although he was eight per cent ahead among those respondents who said they were absolutely certain to vote.
But questions over the accuracy of the polling are now at the heart of the campaign. A spokeswoman for the Livingstone team said it was now to complain to the Market Research Society, the self-regulatory body for polling firms.
"You Gov's polls are misleading the public and we have therefore decided to make a formal complaint about their basic flaws to the Market Research Society of Great Britain," she said.
YouGov president Peter Kellner said the company would vigorously defend itself if there was a complaint. The firm's polls have predicted the results of a string of elections correctly.
In 2005, it carried out nine polls before the general election, which all predicted the outcome to within one point of the actual result. In 2004, there was a discrepancy between YouGov's online surveys for the Evening Standard and the only published telephone poll, in that case Populus for The Times.
On election day, the Mayor's firstround support, and his final margin of victory, were exactly as the firm reported in its final poll for the Standard among all those giving a voting intention - the same basis as today's 13 point lead for Boris Johnson.
Reader views (50)
Ken is a disaster for London just like Brown is for the nation.
I say let Boris and Cameron rule the show and really make London and the rest of the country the best it really can be and send the red socialists into the exile that they belong in.
- Ryan, London
I do not live in London but visit regularly. If we value our safety whether the danger be from terrorists or crime, if we want to encourage tourism and make London a better place to live and work then Boris is the man to make this happen. London cannot go another 4 years under Ken Livingstone who has failed to deliver on so many of his promises. Back Boris for a better capital city.
- Kate, Worcestershire, Worcestershire
As a Londoner living away, watching this race from afar, I say let Johnson win, because when he mucks up London the Tories will never get in again nationally which will be a good thing - believe me! Cameron is scared witless that Johnson will win, hence why Johnson hasn't been allowed to debate with the other candidates! And don't fall for the line that Cameron is better than Labour, he will be far worse....Tories never change their spots! You have been warned!
- Simon, Newcastle
I vote for ken because he gives lots of money to us ethnic minority groups, I send my money to home in Africa, it feeds all the village.
Thank you Ken and London taxpayers, if you ever want a cheap holiday, all expenses paid, do call!
- Mr Undarbeningimasarlere, Bexleyheath
The "congestion charge" initially reduced congestion, but then Ken filled London with wider pavements, chicanes, speed bumps, long periods of red traffic lights and those absurd "bendy" buses. Driving in London is awful, and black cabs have been made unaffordable (unless you can claim back on expenses like Ken).
- Neil, London, UK
Ahmed, I was the press officer at Notting Hill Carnival when Lee Jasper and his mates seized control and I can tell you that they were determined to call the shots...
They have since ruined Carnival and done very little in reality for the community...don't be fooled by their propaganda!
- Stephanie Harwood, UK
Why the fixation with Boris and Ken? Let's have equal attention given to all the candidates; it is a democracy after all?
- Chris Maddox, London, England
I notice that Ken's warning to his public is that Boris Johnson is an extreme right winger and could be dangerous.
Have we all suffered from wet left wing, sympathetic communism like policies from this government for so long - we are scared witless of any sort of toughness back in society.
In a country where people have stopped engaging and fear acting on the things they believe are right - maybe a move to the right is just what this country needs.
Tough action against those that don't give damn. I don't live in London - but I wouldn't vote for lefty Livingstone.
- Paul Hampson, Lancashire
Ken - Bah - agree with everything said here about him but I have a personal grudge -
They've spent £1.25 m on our local station and I still can't get up the 39 steps to the platform without a good rest half-way. That's one of the problems of old age!
As for taking a bus - well the congestion charge seems to have produced a mile long traffic jam of buses in Oxford Street. It's quicker to walk.
- Christina Speight, West London
Go Boris and newter the human newt.
- John, London
I agree completely with Peter Thurgood. He's changed the traffic lights all over to frustrate the driver, attempting to force- not persuade- people out of their cars. Instead of going for incentives, he's gone for the negative option. I voted for him one time- not this time. Boris gets my vote- he's run a positive, intelligent campaign, and all we see now from the Livingstone camp is desperation and bitterness at being so far behind in the polls.
- Richard Pate, London, UK
London needs someone like Boris to get us moving again. Red Ken has destroyed lots of London and especially its character over the last 5 years. My vote goes to Boris!
- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London
Can anyone tell me why, when you look at a map of the congestion charge zone, all the areas that are entitled to the 90% discount are in the rich areas of Kensington and Chelsea and Notting Hill, even Regents Crescent and the City get the big breaks, but all the poorer areas in Southwark and Elephant and castle get no discounts at all.
What's that about Ken?
- Thalia, London UK
Why is it when something does not meet Ken's approval, it is branded racist? Minority groups are not the idiots Ken's comments imply. And furthermore, they can think for themselves. This polling company has a very commendable history of accuracy. But don't be complacent. Get out and vote and make sure Livingstone's name is not given your 2nd vote! Anyone but Ken!
- Diana, Paddington W2, London, UK
Ken is a liability for London. He professes to be green but aside from peak times, his buses have a very low occupancy and spew out pollutants. He has caused more damage to the environment by his foolish road system around Trafalgar Sq. Cars and buses are bumper to bumper from Aldwych to Traf Sq just idling and going nowhere. He has wasted millions of our taxpayer money on his cronies "political" organisations. And his crowning glory will be the burden he brings on all us council tax payers to fund the Crossrail overspend. The congestion charge extension won't even break even for the first few years such is the waste this man engages in. This liability has to be removed. I will vote for Boris because I cannot bear to see how expensive this man has made London life.
- Nazir, London
Are there any other candidates for the London Mayor job beside Livingstone, Johnson & Paddick. Judging from the British media coverage it would appear not. Its amazing that our media harps on incessantly criticising the censorship & biased regimes operating in places like Zimbabwe & China, yet they are merrily carrying out the same behaviour in our own country by only reporting on the mainstream establishment candidates. What hope is there for Londoners who are only informed about the nepotism candidate Livingstone, the oafish candidate Johnson & the sexual morality alternative candidate Paddick. Surely there are other candidates from which Londoners can choose, but from the media coverage there doesn't seem to be any one. When is this so called free country going to get the unbiased, uncensored media coverage that such a society deserves & demands. Our media should concentrate less on foreign countries limitations but instead focus on our own politically censored & biased news coverage.
- Lynda Plum, London, England
So what will it be when Ken loses? - A peerage or a nice safe Labour seat.
- Michael Cole, London, N14
Ken did enough damage to London and he is a parasite.
- Av, London, England
Every dog has its day ken did some good. Times change young people are voting for the first time together with older people wanting change. Ken labour and brown! people don't want next time around. We need change every poll says it! Goodbye Ken, goodbye labour and soon goodbye Brown.
- Paul Connolly, Potters bar Herts
Oh, and has anyone read the latest headlines about Ken's latest strategy?
It looks like he's finally realised the Red-Green pact he forged with the irrelevant Sian Berry is completely useless. Yes, just in case you didn't know - Labour is asking the LibDems to urge their voters to give their second preference votes to Ken....
So, being completely unable to gather anything like a decent enough score in the first-preference round, Ken is now having to scrape the barrel by pleading with every other party aside from the Tories for votes. Pathetic, Ken, and you know it.
LibDem supporters, my message to you is this:
Ken Livingstone is the man that completely snubbed your party just for the environmental vote in agreeing a "pact" with the Greens - as soon as he's in, he'll be just as arrogant, just as crony-driven and just as insensitive as ever - and if not more so. He thought this was going to be an election based on the environment, but Londoners have other priorities as well, like crime for instance, and the only two candidates who seem to offer any ideas on this are Paddick and Johnson, not unless you count the "if it bleeds, it leads [in the media]" contribution from Ken Livingstone.
Don't fall for his ploy, LibDems. Don't Vote Ken.
He's desperate, LibDems, see to it that he gets thrown out.
- Joe, London
Given YouGov's record for accurate polling, it's no surprise Livingstone's camp is starting to panic. And to say that the poll didn't take ethnic minorities sufficiently into account just reveals how thoroughly desperate Ken and Labour are getting, as well as trying to court their vote at the same time (pretty sickening really, isn't it?)
Please, everyone, get this relic of the 80s out of City Hall! London needs change, and only Mr. Johnson can provide it.
Vote for Boris!
- Joe, London
Go Boris, you've got the corrupt Trots on the run!
Roll on Polling Day.
- Peter , Chingford , London
Funny how Ken makes out the polls are inaccurate and worthless and then makes a complaint to YouGov!
I hope to goodness these polls are right. Ken has nothing new to offer London. Just more of the same - violence on our streets, violence on our buses while he and his cronies at City Hall squander tax payers money. I really hope Boris does win.
- Louise, Camberwell
It really is a choice of the mad or the insane to run London.
As a Labour supporter I could never vote for Boris but we need to get rid of Ken and his morally corrupt political dogma machine.
Ken you cannot support the likes of Lee Jasper and expect to win. You are a dinosaur and your time for extinction has finally come.
- Duncan Bailey, London
If you live and drive in London, as I do, you will know that our streets are more gridlocked since Ken's Congestion Charge came in than they were before. He has altered the traffic lights to cause more problems, and coupled with his awful bendy busses, makes London the worst city I have ever driven in.
- Peter Thurgood, London, UK
Great comment Zach of Hackney. If I recall correctly, Marx lived in Hampstead, that trendy leftie but rather costly place to reside, and is now buried in Highgate Cemetery, another frightfully poor area of the capital!
- Annabelle, london
Which of the big London Co would give him a job? The answer is none. So don't off load him on us.
- Tom Archer, dagenham
If Ken is going to make residential streets all 20mph - which is most streets - because some idiots haven't learned the Green Cross Code then the nanny state has gone way OTT and I'm backing Boris.
- Helen Maher, West Hampstead
Only 13% I have yet to talk to a single person who will vote for Ken.
- Den, London
Only 13 percent? I have not heard of anyone who does not like what Boris does. Come on Boris!
- Smiles, London
Is Mr. Livingstone taking lessons from Mr. Mugabe?
- M Lowe, ealing
Although, I'll give to Cameron - A Boris mayoralty will solve both London's congestion problems and address our huge energy usage - because in a couple of years most of the population will have moved away for their own sanity!
- Liam, London
Good on Boris!
- Steve, London, NW1
The greed and mindlessness of Boris' supporters knows no bounds - your self-satisfaction at not having to pay a C-Charge will be short lived when you are sat in grid-locked traffic instead.
- Liam, London
It frightens me to death to think of this fool running London, but if that what Londoners want then so be it.
- Brian, wiltshire
Boris is more 'compatible' with the 'spirit' of London.
- Giovanni, New Malden
Oh dear Mr. Livingstone. A drowning man clutching at straws.
- Jimbob, Kensington
A points lead is all fine and well but what only matters is ...votes actually made on the day!
So there is no point in getting "comfortable" at this stage!
Whatever eventually happens on Voting Day, London urgently needs to get rid of Ken Livingstone once and for all!
- Fraser, Telford Park
So he should be all Livingstone stands for is more taxation and waste.
Livingstone's latest 20 mph speed limit is typical of the mealy mouthed weasel.
Livingstone's team are sounding more like Mugabe every day if they don't like the truth they complain people will draw their own conclusions from them complaining and vote Livingstone out and good riddance.
Watch out now for ballot rigging these people are desperate and nothing is beyond them.
- Kenherts, Enfield
Well done, Boris! The champagne is on ice: don't let it go to waste!
But there's no need to have a blue rinse!
- Peter Seekings-Foster, Muildenhall, Suffolk
Go Boris Go!
I will vote for you.
- Lenny, London.
"... mostly carried out before revelations on Thursday night and Friday that Mr Livingstone had fathered three secret children and Mr Johnson had taken cannabis and cocaine."
I.e. showing that they're normal Londoners rather than aliens.
- John, Bromley, Kent
Ken is unbelievable - power mad and pathetic to boot.
He sounds like Mugabe - ' I don't like the numbers so they must be wrong'
- he has had his time and its time for change
- he did some good things but has lost the plot, and, Ken, its time to go !
- Rodney Bentham-Wood, London
"A spokeswoman claimed YouGov was "misleading the public" and failing to take into account London's ethnic minority population."
How so? YouGov is a voluntary thing -just like voting, what is she trying to say? -that the poll is inaccurate because minorities don't have access to computers? weak- very weak.
- Dave, London
Come on Boris, beat Livingstone to the post, he's had the job along with his cronies far too long.
Goodbye Ken and your Rip of Charge!
- George Dorman, Bexleyheath
Ken needs to move on and stick to his words when he said that a mayor should only have two terms!
He is also depending on the ethnic minority vote, well the ethnic minorities are not stupid! They now know that Ken arranging all the carnivals and the Indian festival at the Trafalgar square is not the only part of their life. Their life is also part of the high travel expenses, affordable housing and high living cost in London, Ken needs to go and like myself they too understand.
- Ahmed Hussain, London
Typical Ken! As soon as it's negative press, it's someone else's fault. Blaming a polling organisation for not engaging ethnic minorities is a new classic. Well done!
- Nobby Clark, Perth, UK
Gosh, a complaint to the Market Research Society of Great Britain, enough to put the fear of God in anyone. The Labour people just can't accept that Kenneth Livingstone (must give him his full name per little Ms Jowell's demands!) is in grave danger of losing.
- Annabelle, London, UK
Boris is a buffo but if he is even considering reversing Kens "moronic" decision to dump the Routemaster. Ken's an old Marxist and Marx was a hypocrite because he never worked a day in his life (in London!) and lived off the fruits of capitalist exploitation, via Engel's father.
- Zach, Hackney, London
It is high time for Livingstone to get his comeuppance.
- Bill, London
