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Many years ago, an unlucky newspaper reporter got the sack after writing that a London fireman, badly burned rescuing people from a blazing Whitechapel building, was "the toast of the East End".
At the Press Awards two nights ago, the consensus across the High Command of print journalism was that that rather less heroic figure Ken Livingstone was the toast of London: dead, finito, history, over. Amid 13-point deficits in the latest YouGov poll, not even the most highly trained specialists of the London Fire Brigade could extract Ken from the meltdown that is his own campaign for reelection.
When conventional journalistic wisdom starts to form, that's when to scent danger. And perhaps it was just as well for the Mayoral frontrunner, Boris Johnson, that Fleet Street's finest were all at the awards on Tuesday. It meant they missed his performance on Newsnight, the first TV candidate debate of the campaign period.
I must say that, having now watched the recording, I thought there was no clear winner and Boris did OK. So did some from notably anti-Johnson quarters, such as the Guardian's Andrew Sparrow. But I've been hearing and reading mixed reviews from others, including Political betting's Mike Smithson (a Lib-Dem but a well respected, non-partisan commentator).
Boris was, I thought, quite good on the Mayor's waste and corruption but on a question he must have known would come up, the cost of reintroducing the Routemaster, he was still at sea, despite weeks of hassle from Planet Ken. He is a calmer, more controlled TV performer than he used to be but there is still, I think, work to do in this department, and a tendency to flippancy. "How's that for a policy?" he will sometimes say.
In these encounters, Livingstone is consistently more assured than Boris - though, alas, many of Ken's assurances do turn out to be lies. On Newsnight, for instance, the Mayor was asked about breaking his 2003 promise not to increase the congestion charge for 10 years (he raised it from £5 to £8 in 2005, you might remember). The voters approved his change of mind, he said. "If you go back and check my manifesto ... in 2004 when I sought reelection, I said I would increase it."
Well, I have been back and checked.
There is, in fact, no mention of any increase in the charge in Livingstone's 2004 election manifesto, nor can I find any promise to increase it in any press coverage throughout the six months before that election. The 60 per cent increase in the congestion charge broke on London only once Ken was safely back behind the Mayoral desk.
Livingstone also misled Newsnight viewers about the Lee Jasper grants scandal, and claimed never to have been involved in fundraising for his campaign. Literally 12 hours later, the Standard revealed he'd hosted a fundraising dinner for the 2004 campaign-at which he made a direct appeal for money.
The problem is that most viewers will not have known that Ken was lying; he does it well. And below the media radar, an effective viral operation is going on, with Labour supporters, never the campaign itself, sending out emails, writing blogs and possibly making telephone calls, claiming that Johnson want to axe pensioners' free travel, something that is not even in his power. (Livingstone, indeed, has himself made this false claim on the record at least once.) The same people were blogging that Newsnight was a "disaster" for Boris before the programme had even finished, or perhaps even started.
Let us dispose of some of the myths about how this election will be decided. Labour will not be saved by the ethnic vote. Ethnic minorities do not make up "more than a third of London", they make up 29 per cent. And because turnout is lower, and the community disproportionately disfranchised, they are only about 20 per cent of actual London voters.
It will not be decided by preposterous deals, such as the Green Party's, to "deliver" second-preference votes to Livingstone. The idea that any candidate can order their voters how to behave is fantasy. Green voters come from across the political spectrum.
But the election will be decided heavily on television. Until recently, Londoners' TV screens were filled with stories about Lee Jasper. Now they are filled with debates and other things at which Ken, as we have seen, is better than Boris. There are still three weeks to go. Could a combination of aboveand below-the-radar lying, superior TV performance skills, and fading memories of sleaze pull it back for Livingstone?
To those of us for whom this is a frightening prospect, there are several items of comfort. First, minus a major gaffe by Johnson (which now seems unlikely), Ken really is running out of time. If Boris's lead is 13 per cent - or even seven per cent, the poll average - it's quite a lot of ground to make up. For all the Livingstone campaign's whingeing, YouGov polls have been consistently more accurate in past elections than the phone polls showing a much closer race.
Second, for all his undoubted stagecraft, Ken continues to leave no stone unturned in his efforts to craft a losing message. He has wasted nine months trying to paint Johnson as a racist and Right-wing fanatic, charges without credibility or traction. He proclaims his top priority is the environment - an issue about fifth in the priorities of voters.
And finally, Livingstone's real nastiness still shines through. In the Newsnight debate, I was struck by the way he blamed the victim of a bendy bus accident, passenger Lee Beckwith, for his own death (claiming he was "several times over the legal limit for alcohol"). Smearing the dead, Ken? I didn't know there was a "legal limit" for riding on a bus.
Boris should have picked that up, hard, and several other things in Tuesday's debate. He is a vastly improved candidate, he is certainly ahead, but if I have a criticism it is this: he isn't yet closing the deal. Ken could still wriggle back through the cat-flap.
Reader views (11)
Ken will win hands down.
- Okpoti, London, UK
Well done Mr Gilligan the lefties on here are screaming for your blood. You must have told the truth then as the lefties never like to hear it! Livingstone is the worst news for London ever, with his visceral hatred of motorists who represent a major economic force coming to London and his devious, lying ways to boost the bus industry, who are Labour party donors. Livingstone has to go!
- John, Surrey
Andrew, you're right to question whether Ken will sneak in the back door..I suspect that if he doesn't win through the allocation of second placed votes....then postal votes will suddenly swing the day! I wonder whether they even bother to count the votes anymore?
- N/A, UK
Yawn. Heard it all before Gilligan. And none of it's true.
It would be nice if you actually showed a hint of equal treatment to the candidates - you know, like professional journalists are supposed to?
- David Kenilworth, London
Mr Gilligan, regardless of the result, I for one am very grateful to you for opening my eyes to the kind of man Ken Livingstone is. Unfortunately, it seems some people still want to believe he is the person they want him to be, but notwithstanding this, I suspect you have had more impact than you could ever have hoped for.
- St, London
Johnson, as I understand it, wants to legalise illegal immigrants (thus presumably giving them the vote) and give illegal immigrants free travel while legitimate British citizens have to pay fares.
And this is the 'Conservative Party' candidate?
Maybe Boris has been bounced into supporting these things by fear of the left and the usual accusations against anyone who disagrees with anything they say. Or are these things now Tory policy?
If anyone can confirm or deny in case I've misunderstood I'd like to know - before polling day please.
- Mike Newland, London
I agree with Martin. You need to stop, Andrew.
- Jason Plessas, London
Andrew please stop this petty one man crusade, it is starting to look like Ahab and the Whale.
Can't you write about something else other than how much you hate Ken Livingstone?
- Martin Caldwell, London
There was me whilst not agreeing with you seeing as reasonable your protestations that you were not on the metaphorical Johnson campaign bus but were taking Ken Livingstone to task as the incumbent, just as you would do should the incumbent be named Boris Johnson and be required to be taken to task. Paragraphs that start "To those of us for whom this is a frightening prospect.." with regard to Ken's re-election would appear, however to be suspiciously close to placing you on the previously disavowed campaign bus!
- Brian Capaloff, Falkirk, Scotland (Formerly London)
Boris was a bit like an old 1930's Bentley.
Magnificent but a bit dodgy at high revs.
I dislike Ken but he is very like Blair, a very smooth manipulator, something Boris is not.
Of the three I thought Paddick came across best.
- Minnie Ovens, USA
Wise words. Complacency in the Boris camp is the last thing we need as Ken is an astute political operator as well as a scheming and lying fraud.
However, you missed one thing in your analysis here and it's an important consideration; Ken has received the glowing endorsement of one of the most unpopular men in the country. Gordon Brown is sure to bring the kiss of death to Ken's increasingly poisonous campaign. Everything that Gordon has touched in the last nine months has crumbled before his very eyes. He is now becoming that worst nightmare - a joke figure. He dithers over decisions and fumbles over Mme Sarkozy and stumbles and fails to get his image right.
Gordon's endorsement of Ken was the absolute last thing that any true Ken supproter could have wished for. It will surely be the ultimate kiss of death.
- Robin, London
