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Boris lead is cut in half
Pippa Crerar and Paul Waugh14.04.08
Boris Johnson's 13-point lead over Ken Livingstone has more than halved in the past week, a Standard poll reveals today.
The Tory candidate is now just six points ahead on 45 per cent compared with the Mayor's 39 per cent. In the last survey he was on 49 per cent to Mr Livingstone's 36.
His narrowing lead suggests the race will go down to the wire on 1 May. Mr Livingstone was today at a Sikh temple in east London, campaigning with Gordon Brown, in a sign of the importance Downing Street is putting on a Labour victory in London.
Mr Livingstone said: "More than 350,000 Londoners will have a vote for the first time at this election and I particularly appeal to them to keep our city going forward.
"I hope they will vote to keep London moving further forward and vote against London becoming a Tory city." Mr Johnson was wooing the business vote as he attempted to lay to rest any perception that he is not a serious candidate.
Mr Johnson said: "I continue to campaign around all the London boroughs with my message of change on the issues that matter such as fighting crime and anti-social behaviour. I am now ready to govern London for the benefit of all Londoners."
The YouGov poll indicates that as polling day draws near the Mayor's relentless focus on whether Mr Johnson is competent has had some impact.
There are signs that Labour supporters are beginning to return to the fold while some Tory supporters are having doubts about Mr Johnson. Last week 34 per cent of Londoners agreed that Mr Johnson was not serious enough to be Mayor while 40 per cent disagreed. That position is now reversed - 40 per cent agreed and 37 per cent disagreed.
However, Mr Livingstone is still trailing with just over two weeks to go, meaning the Tories' message on time for change is hitting home. Polling experts also claimed the Mayor was having to fight hard to prevent the Labour Party's dismal national ratings rubbing off on him. The survey shows an increase in support for Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick to 12 per cent from 10 per cent. Lib-Dem supporters split their second preference votes, which could decide the election, equally between his Labour and Tory rivals. The Green Party's Sian Berry remained on two per cent of those Londoners who expressed a voting intention. If no one get 50 per cent of the vote, there will be a run-off between the two main candidates.
In that case Mr Johnson leads by 54 per cent to Mr Livingstone's 46 per cent, a narrowing of eight points on last week.
Among those identifying themselves as Tory supporters, 90 per cent said last week they would give Mr Johnson their first preference vote while five per cent backed the Mayor. This week, the Tory's support among this group had dropped to 85 per cent while Mr Livingstone's had increased to nine per cent.
The poll shows that Mr Livingstone has made his greatest gains among male voters. Mr Johnson is still ahead among men, but only by two points, whereas last week he was 14 points ahead. He is 10 points ahead among women and substantially in the lead - by 18 points - among the over-55s who are the most likely to vote.
Today Mr Livingstone was also attempting to secure the votes of 350,000 firsttime voters aged under 22. In a bid to copy Barack Obama's success at energising young voters, he announced that his campaign had signed up the presidential contender's internet firm.
Although the Livingstone camp are convinced they have a large lead among those under 30, younger supporters are traditionally much less likely to turn out.
The Mayor's campaign released the names of 20 prominent figures from the music, arts and environmental worlds who have said they will back him.
Among them are Alistair McGowan, Jo Brand, Bill Bailey, Phil Jupitus, Arthur Smith, Emma Thompson, Prunella Scales and Antony Gormley.
His campaign spokeswoman said: "The more voters hear about the issues that affect their lives, and the lives of their children and their grandchildren, the more they realise that Boris Johnson has no answers to the challenges that confront Londoners and the city."
YouGov polled 1,031 Londoners online between 9 and 11 April. A total of 13 per cent did not yet know who they would support, one point down from the last poll.
Reader views (46)
I'm certainly not wild about Ken, but in spite of my reservations he does have one fairly critical advantage - intelligence. I could definitely live with a smart, competent Tory as mayor but Boris alas is neither of those things. If he wins, I suspect that all you Boris fans are going to feel very silly indeed before too long - I hope I'm wrong but the signs, plain for all to see, are not good.
- Ricky, Bethnal Green
Boris has what it takes, we must vote the dictator Ken out before he clobbers us again with the green taxes we cannot afford. London needs less red tape.
- Pete, London
Ken's shown contempt for democratic processes. When English Heritage intervened in planning applications for tall buildings, he derided them as 'the taliban'. When there were calls for an independent inquiry into the Stockwell shooting of an innocent young boy, he said 'the police should be allowed to get on with their jobs'. He then repeatedly attacked the Independent Police Complaints Commission during the course of its investigation.
He's shown contempt for local residents. A woman at a recent mayoral debate told him that there were problems with bus reliability, he attacked her, telling her: 'you must be on something'. Myself, and several residents groups in Kings X wrote to him to ask that he intervene in a planning application for the redevelopment of Kings X, one of the largest applications in London, worthy of extra scrutiny. He waved it through.
Meanwhile, he's been cozying up to big business, well-paid consultants and homophobic Muslim clerics.
Boris, however, is not fit to govern. There's no need to vote for Ken because he is 'the lesser of two evils,' because there is a proportional voting system, so there's no need to vote Ken to 'stop Boris'. Brian Paddick's the best man for the job.
- Lee Baker, London
Why would we want to vote Ken in again, all he does is spend our money. He decided I wanted to pay for the Olympics for some 8 years, who asked me?
He brought in congestion charge to cut congestion and now that is a pollution charge what does that have to do with the amount of traffic. The city will be at a snails pace with low polluting cars and we will be back to the start with traffic and congestion again. What about public transport, yes it may be better but look at the damage caused to the buses and trams, who are the main culprits, school kids.
How do we tackle that, give them all free travel 24 hours a day, so those who have to get to work cant get on the bus or tram for kids, and when you can they shout scream push everyone about. Try tramlink they even push passengers off at the platforms when the door opens.
I feel sorry for those on freedom passes especially the retired who are trying to make ends meet. Their pass starts on the bus at 9am so have to pay to go to work, while the kids go free, jumping stop to stop for fun. When I asked a bus inspector why pensioners had to pay when kids don't I was told that otherwise the pensioners would flood the system? So why are the kids limited as well I ask?
Lastly, I agree with oyster pre pay great idea Ken but why are freedom passes also oyster cards like student cards? That way if they travel on London overground they could pay the excess the fare from Harrow to Watford went up from 3.20 to £6 when Ken took over.
- Charlie, Croydon. UK
I agree with George. Boris was awful on Newsnight and that has changed my opinion of him completely. He did not seem to have a grasp of the facts at all.
In fact Ken was not much better. Paddick seemed to be the only competent candidate.
- Concerned Londoner, London
No one man can decide London's fate... How dare Livingstone take the credit for making London Great again. Us Londoners make London what it is... and this is despite the best efforts of a Mayor and his cronies who have done their utmost to destroy our spirit with their disastrous management of the infrastructure of this city.
Vote for anyone but Ken on May the 1st, but if you're undecided, vote for Boris. He will at very least let us get on with our lives, and who knows might even make our lives a little easier.
As for Gilligan resigning... tell you what if Ken wins I'll resign... sell up, and move to Harare...
- Roger, London
Livingstones ideas have already done huge damage to London and it's reputation has rip off city.
The cost of public transport along with Livingstone's taxing frenzy have cost us dear.
Crime and the congestion charge have made London somewhere to avoid rather than visit since Livingstone and his bunch of thieves got into county hall.
Seeing Brown now endorsing Livingstone makes my skin crawl two reptiles together spouting the same old lies while the working class in London continue to be totally ignored.
- K Harrop, Hertford UK
The Mayoral campaign drears on: old Ken, whatever the weather parades around London in his flashers raincoat, usually in tow with Tessa Jowell. It is impossible to look at Lady Snooty without remembering all those mortgage applications she signed on the “orders” of her “colourful husband” David Mills: "Red" Ken supported by arch-Blairites he pretends to despise. Yet another example of Livingstone hypocrisy!
- Alan Giles, Romford Essex
It seems rather a pity that Boris Johnson comes over as an overgrown public schoolboy. Having read his articles I know that he is certainly not the clown that he acts.
Further he would appear to suffer from foot and mouth disease, when he opens his mouth he puts his foot in it.
The comment about amnesty for illegal immigrants might well have blown his chances.
- Anthony Bootle, London
The Tories could have put a monkey up against Livingstone and the monkey would have won it! Unfortunately they chose a clown - and a witless one at that.
- Tony Hammond, Earls Court
Ken's hirelings do a pretty good job writing here. For a moment I thought they were real people.
- Howard, Essex
Livingstone has done damn all for London except spend, spend, spend my money without my permission. His mates have trousered thousands of pounds, he happily consorts with people who hate this country, and he is intoxicated with ancient Trotskyite class war memories.
I recall a lot of people who voted for Livingstone first time round because they thought he was 'a bit of a laugh'. Most of them are laughing on the other side of their faces now.
- Roman, London
I think David, Balham has made a valid point. Why do we need this extra layer of government in London? I would add that with all the additional assemblies and committees that have been introduced in the UK in the last decade or so, the benefit is that more people are employed. On the flip side, I don't things are any better than before, and public services (e.g. transport) so expensive compared to, say New York, I can't afford to use it any more! I support any proposals that encourage investment but at the same time reduce the size of government and tax burden. Until then, I would support Boris
- Andy, Putney
To Jonathon Morgan, London
No, I'm not involved with Labour's campaign. And I'm as annoyed with waste on PC initiatives, Hugo Chavez and the abolition of the Routemaster as anyone. But having seen Boris in action on Newsnight, I don't think he can hack it. And as my livelihood depends on London remaining the financial capital of the world, I'm not going to risk it. Did you see Newsnight? Do you honestly believe Boris can manage a complex bureaucracy of 105,000 people? 50 spoilt journos at the speccie isn't the same you know.
- George, Swiss Cottage
If Ken wins, will Mr Gilligan resign?
- Jeremy Fraser, London England
"Think about it- if Ken returns as Mayor but Labour lose the next general election (most likely to the Conservatives), we'll end up with a government and a Mayor who almost certainly won't see eye to eye. The resulting clash of policy would be disastrous for everyone."
And? Is the suggestion here that people forget who they want to win, whose policies they favour, whose personality they prefer and vote for someone who may be of the same political hue as a party which may win an election in 3 years' time. There's political sophistication for you!
As a Londoner and fan of Ken's for over 25 years, and an unfortunate reader of 25 years of anti-Ken vituperation within the Standard for that same period, I would hope Ken wins this vote, but whoever people vote for don't do so on the basis of which party might win a general election in 2010!
- Brian Capaloff, Falkirk, Scotland (Formerly London)
I don't really care who is in the lead as long as Ken Livingstone doesn't get voted back as Mayor. He has been presiding over what appears to be little more than a self-help scam for himself, his cronies and his hangers-on and they have done extremely well for themselves during his reign as Mayor. But what about the ordinary people of this city - what has he done for them? Come on Londoners, get voting, get him out.
- Mary, Sutton, Sutton Surrey
Will Boris plaster his mugshot on every London (!) website and poster if he gets into office?? No, Ken, however much you might like to think of yourself as a glamorous celebrity and unstoppable baby-maker, we do not like looking at you; definitely a face for the radio (shame about the voice!), not some kind of symbol of London..
- Ads, London
Ken doesn't have the support of his own staff and he treats them with little respect. The thing is a vote for Ken 1st or 2nd preference is a thumbs up to Gordan Brown that he's doing a great job Where has London's tax money gone? Scotland? Why is only London paying for the Olympics. Ken and brown have fleeced London, cant anyone see this.
- John Jones, london
I think London would do better with Mugabe. He at least knows how to really fix the voters.
- John Hunt, Ross-on-Wye.England
I may be able to afford to visit my birthplace again.... get rid of Ken!
- David, Wokingham uk
Boris makes gaffs that are potentially racist and then people try to pas it off as him playing the media? Why would anyone using the media to their advantage use the term picaninies? If you want someone who makes that sort of mistake then by all means vote for him. But the reputation and the people of London will suffer as a result. The dangerous thing is, people think the philanderous buffoon is capable of running one of the world's biggest cities. Incredible.
- David, Richmond
Its a shame the evening standard doesn't always reflect the mood of Londoners in this matter.
- Joshua Fenton-Glynn, London
I think George in Swiss Cottage lives in a different London to me. So, on 80% of issues Ken has done London a good turn has he George? I'd rather we just got rid of the office of mayor altogether, for the last few years I've to pay extra on my council tax for a mad man who wants to tax me out of existence altogether just for working and driving a car. Are you sure you're not a Livingstone camp political activist, George? The last person I would want in charge in a downturn is a committed hard left socialist with no idea about market forces unless it involves cheap oil from tin pot socialist dictators.
- David Peters, Balham London
Ken has lied his way to two mayoral victories, including saying he wouldn't stand for a third term but here we are. He has appointed a corrupt Praetorian guard who transact all his dirty business and expects us all to just look away. He gives money to bodies who can't justify their expenditures. He insults jews and thinks he doesn't need to apologise. He wastes the congestion charge on a company who paid the capital cost six years ago. He introduces ridiculous low emissions zones which are utterly meaningless (remember the nuclear free zone of the eighties?). He insults anyone who opposes him and he is an habitual drunk and now he wants our vote?
Get back to where you belong, Ken - the gutter.
- Robin, London
Alec - not quite sure what your trying to say here?
When people write to support Ken they are being paid.
And the people that write in support of Boris? Are they being paid or do they really want to elect someone who will be painfully, hopelessly, out of their depth by the end of May?
- Nick Dunton, Islington
Mark from Maidstone says that Ken Livingston has made London Transport the most expensive in Europe, might I suggest Mark pops down the M4 and tries the bus (non) service we have in 19th century Bristol, as a Londoner he would realise how well he is served by the best public transport system in the world.
- Colin, Bristol
Any chance London has of surviving the global economic turmoil will vanish if we have a part-time comedy performer for Mayor. Boris - you're a nice guy but not fit to lead London. Ken hasn't pleased me with every decision he's taken but he's credible and a safe pair of hands and personally, I'll sleep better at night if he's running the capital rather than Boris.
ps - I have no fixed political views and read the Standard but your coverage of the race looks pretty once sided towards Boris - a little bit disappointing as as a reader, I'd prefer to have the facts a bit more rather than just opinion - thanks.
- Frank, Clapham, London
I have been campaigning and leafleting on the streets and have noticed a growing pro-Boris wave of support over the last few weeks as people realise that Boris is THE serious challenger, with fully thought out and costed policies and a team ready and waiting to hit the ground running on May 2nd. As well as being someone who would be an attractive figurehead for London. That is a plus, not a minus.
I have not met anyone yet wavering on Boris. On the contrary, the people who are wavering tend Ken's traditional supporters who are no longer inspired by him or who feel he his time is up. More often than I can count people have said to me" I am not a Tory voter, but I do love Boris" Some people take bunches of leaflets and offer to help deliver them. Some beg for a T shirt. Some start chanting... I guess those who imagine wavering are not out on the streets...
- Susan Wade Weeks, Vauxhall UK
I'm convinced that 'George, Swiss Cottage' is involved with Labour's campaign.
I've seen an almost identical comment elsewhere and I'm sure it's just designed to unnerve people into voting for Ken rather than Boris.
Of course, some people might think I'm involved in Boris' campaign as I leave comments like this. I can assure you I'm not- I just think he couldn't be worse than Ken.
- Jonathon Morgan, London, UK
Come on Londoners.
If you want higher council taxes, being lied to and fleeced, Ken is your man. Vote for him, then you have
well truly been fleeced.
How many people written in support of Ken are being paid with his shady dealings?
No matter what, Livingston must not be allowed to continue to destroy and run London as the way he has.
- Alec, West London
I was beginning to wonder when the electorate might wake up to the serious choice that they have facing them on May 1st. I'm not the biggest fan of Ken Livingstone but to have that clown Johnson in charge of London's police, security, community relations, economic framework, skills ... (need I go on) spells disaster for Londoners. I'd rather have Ken and suffer his nauseating moral dictats than have 'big bird' in charge at City Hall.
- Jo, Croydon
Polls go up and down, but I hope that people will think of the vast amounts of taxpayers' money Ken Livingstone has wasted on bogus projects which have done nothing for the ethnic minorities he pretends to support. Boris would be a breath of fresh air. We need to get Ken out first, Brown will follow.
- Beatriz, London
Some people on here claim that the polls suggest Boris is losing ground.
Well, as various candidates for the mayoralty keep saying, "the only poll that counts is May 1".
London: get Ken out.
- Jonathon Morgan, London, UK
The point about Ken being in conflict with a Tory Government is a good one, however, if Boris gets in, he will immediately be in conflict with Labour.
If Boris gets elected, there is also the question of; who will actually run London?
Given that Boris has no track record, credentials or relevant experience, I would like to understand who he will bring in to deliver the services, tackle the very complex and sensitive issues that exist and deliver the multi billion £, very mess-up-able, infrastructure projects?
I think there is a big misunderstanding about how difficult the job actually is. The swing back to Ken in the poll shows that when we are a fair way away from the election people are comfortable to say they will vote for Boris and give Ken a fright because they are annoyed about things. As we get closer to the election, the size of the risk puts people off.
No matter what you think of Kens politics, he beats almost anyone in the world when it comes to knowledge & experience of delivering services to London, and I dont think the return of the routemaster offsets the risk of electing a completely under qualified Mayor.
- Nick, Islington
No he is not, Boris is in the lead with a good majority.
- J Conyard, Ilford Essex
I'm a natural Tory, work in the City and all that - but I just can't vote for Boris. Because he is just not competent enough to manage one of the world's largest and richest cities. I saw him on Newsnight, and I was really, really disappointed. We are not talking about a student debating society here - and competence will be particularly important in a downturn. Blithe slogans will not hack it for Boris come 2nd of May. I'm annoyed with some of Kens posturing, but on 80% of issues he's done London a good turn.
- George, Swiss Cottage, London
I cannot see Londoners wanting more of the Red Ken time. London has lost 10 years with him and has become the poor cousin of the European towns.
- Georgie, Islington, London
This article says that some Conservative supporters are wavering in their support of Boris.
But whoever they prefer, I would urge them not to vote for Ken instead.
Think about it- if Ken returns as Mayor but Labour lose the next general election (most likely to the Conservatives), we'll end up with a government and a Mayor who almost certainly won't see eye to eye. The resulting clash of policy would be disastrous for everyone.
So even if you don't vote for Boris, I would urge you not to vote for Ken, either as a first-choice or second-choice candidate.
- Robert Cunningham, Harrow, London, UK
2 or 3 years ago Gordon Brown said that Livingstone was a useless cretin. Who am I to argue. I will vote for Boris. Never again anything Labour!
- Frederick, London
Although YouGov's polls seem to be needed to be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism, as both IPSOS and MORI have independently produced figures touting a 49-51 split in the final round (with MORI's recent showing Ken in the lead), this significant downward trend is very bad news for Boris indeed. I think people are getting cold feet with Boris - he's not proved he's the serious candidate and, the closer we get the election time, the more nervy are leaving him and Livingstone is a known quantity - much safer.
If the YouGov poll ever slipped into showing Ken leading, I think Boris' time is definitely up.
- James Nash, West London
Ken will win because he is Mr London.
- Emma Chisett, London, UK
I will vote for Boris Johnson because he has the education and track record to make the changes that Londoners want. Ken Livingston has only managed to increase taxes, waste public funds on useless projects, and make London Transport the most expensive in Europe.
What is so difficult about providing a clean, affordable, punctual train system that will be the envy of New York and Paris?
Boris Johnson, you are the man!
- Mark, Maidstone Kent
Who will win surely depends on the turnout.
Livingstone has a captive vote of those on the Labour payroll. This gives him a huge advantage in a low poll. That's how he won last time with a fraction of London's voters supporting him.
Boris will win if the disenchanted majority who don't bother to vote at all on grounds 'they are all the same' decide to participate in substantial numbers.
- Mike Newland, London
"I am now ready to govern London for the benefit of all Londoners." Good stuff, Boris, music to the ears of the silent and continuously-ignored-by-Ken majority.
- St, London
"Mr Johnson was not serious enough to be Mayor"
After the joke that is Ken?
- Nobby Clark, Perth, the Scottish one
