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Boris surges ahead in poll
Paul Waugh and Pippa Crerar28.04.08
Boris Johnson has raced ahead of Ken Livingstone with just three days to go until the mayoral election.
The latest YouGov poll for the Standard shows the Conservative candidate is 11 points ahead on first preference votes - and 10 points ahead in the crucial second preference category.
The survey puts Mr Johnson on 46 per cent to Mr Livingstone's 35 per cent of first preference votes, while in an almost inevitable run-off, Mr Johnson would secure 55 per cent to 45 per cent for his Labour rival.
But the key factor in the contest is likely to be the large number of undecided voters. YouGov found that when people were asked to choose solely between Mr Livingstone and his main rival, the gap narrowed. Some 46 per cent backed Mr Johnson, while 41 per cent backed the Mayor. Yet 13 per cent said they still "don't know".
Mr Livingstone will spend the final days of his campaign on his message that Mr Johnson is not up to the job and will unveil a new poster with the slogan: "Imagine Boris Johnson in charge of London's £39billion transport budget. Suddenly he's not so funny." Yet the Mayor said he would offer his defeated rivals - including Mr Johnson - jobs in his new administration. "I would genuinely want Boris to come in, take a job and get some experience," he said.
Mr Johnson was concentrating on keeping his advantage with his campaign on the need for change.
YouGov found that for the first time in weeks, the gap in the "run-off" between the two has widened - to 10 points compared with six last week. The poll shows Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick is still the most popular choice when it comes to second preferences. Some 36 per cent would give him their extra vote, compared with 15 per cent for Mr Johnson and 14 per cent for Mr Livingstone. The Greens pick up 15 per cent of second preferences.
The YouGov survey contradicts others in recent days suggesting Mr Livingstone was ahead in the race.
A spokeswoman for Mr Livingstone's campaign said: "This is a farcical poll which will do deep damage to the reputation of YouGov when the actual result is announced on 1 May."
A spokeswoman for the Back Boris campaign said: "This poll shows that every vote will count. If Londoners want a change in London, they have to vote for it this Thursday."
• YouGov polled a total of 1,138 people online between 23-25 April.
Reader views (38)
Here's a sample of the latest views published.
Jj: It just annoys me that people who don't live in London and don't realise just how bad things are (for example increased Council tax to pay for the Olympic Games, small businesses who lost their premises in east London to make way for the Olympics and didn't get enough compensation from the Compulsory Purchase orders etc), presume to tell US how to vote. As I said Ms Rees-Bygrave won't have to endure the consequences. It is very easy to tell other people what to do when it doesn't affect you.
And who said I was supporting Johnson? You presume too much.
Livingstone has gone back on so many things, i.e. He would only stand for two terms. You cannot believe a word he says.
Another point: Livingstone can't have it both ways: he pretends to be autonomous from "New Labour" yet has constantly had arch Blairite Tessa Jowell in tow, he has also been around with Gordon Brown, yet Livingstone still claims he doesn't see eye to eye with Labour leadership. Yesterday he was quoted as saying that nobody had mentioned Brown to him, or the 10p tax band
h no? not to this "champion of the poor"? Pull the other one Livingstone.
- Alan Giles, Romford Essex
- Mark, Fulham
I don't WANT the Olympics!
Think of the desperately need hospitals and doctors and sight saving, Altzeimers and cancer medications that NICE say we can't afford.
How many British citizens who've paid huge amounts of tax all their lives are going to suffer and die for want of the money we are spending on the Olympics?
It's all going on land grabs and speculative building, it's not even being spent on training for kids to get to the Olympics.
The whole thing is sick.
- Thalia, London UK
Mr Giles - you seem concerned about location (how's Essex by the way?) - will Tim-Nice-But-Dim actually be living in London then?!
I imagine if he won he would beat a hasty retreat from The Smoke to countryside manor with money and some more fame.
- Jj, Hammersmith
The lady from Dorset (Linda Rees-Bygrave) doesn't have to live with the consequences of Mr Livingstone. If she thinks London a la Livingstone is so wonderful why not give up Sherborne and go to Tower Hamlets instead?
With all due respect please leave the decision to those of us who have to live here.
I see Mr Livingstone still has Tessa Jowell in tow - the lady who signed multiple mortgage applications without reading them, just because her husband told her to do so.
- Alan Giles, Romford Essex
Cameron did first ask Brian Paddick whether he would run for the Tories. This means that even the Tory leader thinks that Paddick is a better candidate than Boris as a mayor for London.
- Gerald Williams, London
The election is being contested on the personalities of the 2 candidates, but the real proof of 'fitness to govern' is about the team that candidate assembles.
Livingstone - cronies from all sorts of dubious political cliques dating back to Ken's loony left days
Johnson - some of the cream from the private sector. He also doesn't need the fame and fortune, nor has axes to grind.
- G Dawson, London SE16
2 terms is enough for anyone and Ken has his eye on global recognition. This job is merely Ken's shop window for the future.
If I felt he truly listened to the wishes of Londoners, it would be my inclination to vote for him. But as he ignores his own studies, should they not correspond with his personal views, it's clear his is a personal crusade.
There is one thing that will make me vote for Boris: In his first term at least, he will bring in expertise and he will listen to consultation.
Unlike Ken who spent £ millions of our money on the extended Congestion Charge consultation and then completely ignored the clear wishes of the people.
Some democrat.
For me, a vote for Ken is a vote for an autocrat. And a shameless one at that! A hell of a condemnation for a so called socialist.
- Richard, London
"My one worry is that you can put nothing passed Livingstone and his cronies and ballot rigging of the postal vote could easily happen." !
And what's the next accusation going to be? Killing of the first born? Debate that involves the use of a couple of brain cells can be good, but this is just ridiculous. I don't suppose that even that one man anti-Ken mission, Andrew Gilligan would make such a ludicrous suggestion!
- Brian Capaloff, Falkirk, Scotland (Formerly London)
What choice to we have?
A crook
A monkey
And whatever
Don't trust any of them. Boris is a joke and is not a reason to vote for because Ken should go.
- Alice, Richmond Surrey
Boris is definitely our best choice imagine 12 years of Ken at least? C'mon London deserves a change and why would I give a thumbs up to Brown that he's doing a fantastic job?
- Dave Angel, llondon
Having watched the Sky News debate last night I feel that Boris is a funny man who should stick to entertaining audiences. He does not seem to have a policy which he has thought of himself and his recent good behaviour is incredible to behold.
Ken may have faults but at least I can believe in his love for London. He also is not afraid of unpopular choices which bring environmental benefits. I hope Ken wins on Thursday!
- Linda Rees Bygrave, Sherborne, Dorset
Think about this:
Why does Boris want to be mayor?
Money? Nope. He's got that, and would actually get less money if he became mayor as he'd have to give up his other, better paid jobs.
Fame? Nope. He's one of our most recognised and well-known politicians.
Popularity? Nope. He's been the most popular politician for the last ten years in surveys.
Boris genuinely wants to help people, and make their lives a better place.
Why does Ken want to be mayor?
Well, I'm sure even the most cynical wouldn't say it's totally for his own gain.
But I'm sure there's an element of that- Livingstone hasn't got anything else to do.
His career would be over if he lost this election, so I'm sure there's at least an element of holding onto power involved in his campaign.
Always remember that.
- Robert Cunningham, Harrow, London, UK
George, London - you make a good point, London deserves a better choice..
Ken should have stood down to let someone bring in a fresh perspective, and the Tory's showed disdain for London when they put Boris forward, because at the time they didn't want to put him in charge of anything "winable".
On balance I will reluctantly go for Ken, as Boris's track record is terrifyingly inadequate.
- Nick Dunton, Islington
My one worry is that you can put nothing passed Livingstone and his cronies and ballot rigging of the postal vote could easily happen.
London has been ripped of by these parasites time for a change and a leader with a brain.
- K Harrop, Hertford uk
Let´s pray a disaster does not happen and Boris J destroys the valuable job that Ken has done through all these years.
London has seen great changes with Ken. This election is not about politics, but about who´s more capable to run one of the biggest cities in the World.
- Maria Munro, West Kensington
Finally London can be cool again. Let's give Boris a chance. Red Ken has failed miserably. The last 8 years have been bad for London. I cannot see Livingstone getting re-elected again.
- Georgie, Islington, London
While Boris spend his final days before the vote reassuring people that he IS capable of doing a good job -without slagging off Ken, Ken spend his final days only focussed on making Boris look bad. This looks like a very childish last straw to me...
- Steve, London
Only Boris can stop the unethical, amoral and unscrupulous Ken - so whatever you think of the fluffy blonde's performance, vote Johnson. If Ken by some calamity is returned, he will truly become impossible, having got away with the equivalent of political murder.
- Phillip Hodson, London
This country needs a change, Labour has once again ruined everything we stand for, Boris is the man to start the change get rid of the corruption within the London Assembly, lets take a stand
- H, London
Andrew, have you not noticed that pretty much every bus in London is now wheelchair-accessible? The tube is much harder, but I think Ken's pledged that 1/3 of stations will have step-free access in the next 4 years.
- Tom, London
Livingslime is history, as are his City Hall cronies who post on this and every other website. Time for a new job boys and girls! Try your local supermarket, or fast food restaurant, but they might be a bit fussy about who they hire, they prefer honest staff with integrity!
- Vote Boris!, London
Ta! Ta! Ken!
- Graham Smith, Morden Park, England
A recent article in the Evening standard stated "Mr Johnson's other outside interests include £250,000 per year from the Daily Telegraph, after-dinner speaking which recently made him £50,000, and book contracts worth as much as £40,000."
So does Boris Johnson see the Mayor of London role as a part-time job or will he give up his other commercial activities if he becomes the Mayor? Do Londoners want a part-time Mayor or a full time one?
- Kevin, London, UK
Between Boris or Ken, one is just as bad as the other, one might say half a pound and 8 ozs. Are there no better candidates for a major city like London? Poor Londoners.
- George, London, UK
Ken has done very well for London, got us the Olympics and transport is under a radical change for the better. Can anyone believe that Boris Johnson will be able to do as good a job as he can't even provide any figures or facts that he aims to achieve. I fear that if Boris Johnson succeeds in his campaign I will have to move out of London until he is forced out of office. Strong words but I mean it.
- Mark, Fulham
Bearing in mind a couple of the polls over the weekend had very different results, Oliver, whilst it is a bit presumptuous to rubbish this poll it is curious how consistently out of sync YouGov has been with the others. On this basis the criticisms made by Ken's team, albeit a touch strong, which is realistically inevitable in a political campaign, are not based upon complete prejudice, unlike yours, and are not from ignorance/arrogance.
- Brian Capaloff, Falkirk, Scotland (Formerly London)
Livingstone still wont account for the missing millions he allowed his race advisor to squander on bogus organisations so one can only deduce he was complicit in what Lee Jasper was doing.
Any company director would be before a court if he allowed this kind of fraud in his company.
The assembly should force Livingstone to account for the actions of Lee Jasper or resign.
- K Harrop, Hertford UK
I'm an American who lived in London for some years (and was back very recently for a visit with friends) who loves the city very much. Yes, Ken Livingstone can talk like a fool--but on the whole he represents a long, hard-won tradition of capable, knowledgeable British public administration. (My God--isn't today's dynamic London a better place than the city of the Thatcher-Major years?) Boris, on the other hand, actually is an amiable fool who knows nothing about running a great city. Look at eight years of the George W. Bush administration (Baghdad...New Orleans...) for clues as to the mess that contemporary know-nothing Tories can make of things. Think carefully before voting...
- John Devault, Washington, D.C., USA
Is Johnson leading Livingstone to the Victorious Falls?
We'll all hear someone splashing about on Thursday!
- Peter Seekings-Foster, Muildenhall, Suffolk
While Ken Livingstone doesn't want the gloomy Brown 'albatros' near him while he's on the stump this picture of Boris and 'Dave' tells a completely different story. The body language is very relaxed and gives a very reassuring message.
- Jeremiah, London
Let us hope and pray this poll isn't borne out. What London simply doesn't need is Boris Johnson in any position of power. Ken Livingstone hasn't done a bad job.
- Paul, London
Have spoken to yet another committed Labourite today who said 'anyone BUT Ken!'
Go Boris!
- Sjm, London
Bill, I was with you right up until the final word of your comment.
I shudder to think how a man of Johnson's fragile, bizarre psyche would handle a crisis - such as the London bombing. And it beggars belief, Bill, that anyone believes a single thing the man says. He has no grasp of financial or strategic detail, and wants us to put him in charge of the world's number one city. Ken's not perfect. But he has one thing going for him: he's not Boris.
- Kevin Mitchell, London, UK
It beggars belief that anyone with an ounce of sense would vote for Boris.
- Will Fox, London
Somehow I don't think this poll would get the same attention from the Tory Standard if it said the opposite...
- Bert Albion, London, UK
I'm disabled. London Transport is plainly inaccessible to us and whilst that's not Ken Livingstone's fault he's made it so difficult to renew my driving exemption pass that I've let it lapse. It's easier to get a British Passport!
He clearly judges stopping those who cheat his tax gathering system to be more important than helping those who can't otherwise visit their own capital city.
Thanks Red Ken, you hypocrite.
- Andrew Waldron, Bournemouth, UK
It beggars belief that anyone with an ounce of sense would vote for Livingstone.
- Bill, London
I think YouGov know a lot more about accurate polling than any arrogant crony coming coming out of the Livingstone camp, clearly they're worried enough about this poll to publically rubbish it.
- Oliver Gompertz, London
