Statisticians might tell you that Warringah cannot win tomorrow's £210,000 Ebor at York. With 9st 10lb to carry, you have to go back 30 years to the dual Champion Hurdler Sea Pigeon to find the last horse to defy such a burden.

However, Sir Michael Stoute's classy four-year-old is built for the task and confidence is growing at the yard that the gelding can take the honours in the richest handicap on the Flat in Europe.

Warringah likes to run from the front, so his inside draw in stall one is perfect and champion jockey Ryan Moore will be able to dictate the 1m 6f contest and keep applying the pressure up the long Knavesmire straight.

This relentless galloper bolted up at Windsor and was then only just reeled in close home both at this track and at Glorious Goodwood last month.

Warringah produced a career best performance on the Sussex course, splitting Illustrious Blue and Halicarnassus in a Group 3 race and, being 4lb well in according to the official handicapper, he can grind his rivals into submission tomorrow.

There has been plenty of money for Aidan O'Brien's 3-1 favourite Changingoftheguard, who is the sole three-year-old in the race and is also well drawn in seven.

The Ballydoyle trainer won the Ebor with the smart Mediterranean in 2001 and Changingoftheguard also boasts an impressive CV, having improved no end since chasing home Stoute's Harbinger at Chester in May and winning the Ulster Derby at Down Royal the following month without breaking sweat. The value looks to have gone, but the colt is a must for a saver.

Claims that high number stalls are the kiss of death hold precious little water - the last two York winners (the race was run at Newbury in 2008 after the meeting was abandoned due to waterlogging) came from 14 - and trainer Clive Cox remains enthusiastic about the prospects of Red Merlin, who starts from 15.

Successful in his last three races, Red Merlin ticks all the right boxes and, though unproven at the trip, Cox feels optimistic that he will stay, while the booking of Mick Kinane for the in-form Willie Mullins-trained Deutschland looks significant.

Tomorrow's York TV selections

1.45 Class Is Class; 2.15 Enroller; 2.50 Showcasing; 3.25 Warringah.