Tonight:
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Unlike many in the political class, I think it's possible that 2008 could see London get its first Tory Mayor. There are grandiose reasons for thinking this - the great shift in British politics of the past two years has been the collapse of the Labour vote in the south. And there are boring, anoraky reasons too - people are more likely to turn out if they live in the outer-London suburbs where Tory support is concentrated.
I admit the thought that Boris Johnson could seize power in the capital still seems bizarre. But that's because I, and I suspect many others, have got used to assuming that London's Conservatives must always lose.
That unjustly neglected political commentator Bridget Jones explained why when she summed up a mood that gripped cool Londoners for the best part of two decades. Tories like Johnson were nothing more than "braying bossy men having affairs with everyone, shag-shag-shag left, right and centre, and going to the Ritz in Paris, then telling all the presenters off on the Today programme," she told her diary.
And anguished Conservative moderniser Jo Ann Nadler even produced a book, Too Nice to be a Tory, in which she laid into Johnson's "posh twit routine" for reinforcing the impression "that Tories speak a language no one else understands".
Times change and Johnson's supporters maintain that he has metamorphosed from the buffoon who infuriated Ms Nadler into a potential statesman. They wave detailed policy announcements at anyone who doubts he can not only win but also provide serious leadership.
I went through them and found much to admire. But for a man who boasts that he tells it straight, I did detect a slippery habit of sliding for the door whenever tough questions had to be answered.
For instance, Johnson favours zero tolerance policing to attack the yobbishness that blights urban life. A senior officer did a rough calculation for me and reckoned that the Met would need 10,000 more officers to bring New York-style law enforcement here. If that's what Johnson wants, he should say we must pay for extra police with higher taxes. He doesn't, of course, because tax rises will alienate potential supporters.
He also rages against the exorbitant cost of housing, while rejecting the pseudo-solution of the high-rise developments that Ken Livingstone has inflicted on the city's skyline. He wants affordable houses families will want to live in, which is good to hear. Yet he never suggests building new homes on the green belt because that would upset voters in Tory-supporting shire seats, not least in his own constituency of Henley.
There are no painless answers in politics. If Johnson has the strength of character to level with the electorate, he'll prove he's more than just another celeb. If not, his career in public life will remain a posh twit routine.
Reader views (4)
The idea that it's "not democratic to allow" Ken a third term is plain silly! Surely if Londoners believe that Ken has done a very good job - and as a Londoner I think he's done a fantastic job in terms of improving transport, reducing crime, promoting economic prosperity and equality - then it is up to Londoners to decide whether we wish to give him a third term, is it not? That's democracy and long may it continue!
Vote Ken for a safer, greener and more prosperous London.
- Pav Akhtar, London, England
Boris will definitely win because Ken has had two chances and it is not democratic to allow him a third. Boris had run a really sensible, positive campaign with good policies that we can all relate to. With Ken, there are too many concerns about cronyism and financial wrongdoings. He always blames someone else for his own failings and is still invoking the names of Mrs. Thatcher and Lady Porter for what is going wrong in London.
- Angela King., London
I was a journalist alongside Boris Johnson at The Daily Telegraph newspaper just a few years ago and firmly believe he's still as devoid of any substantial policies or vision for a better or fairer society now, as he was then.
The reason for this is simple: Johnson doesn’t live in the real world that most of us Londoners inhabit. He’s so far removed, living it up in elite social circles that befit his little Eton penchants to give a flying fox about community policing or transport or waste management.
Why else has he failed – just three months before the mayoral election – to produce any serious manifesto of policies for the capital?
For anyone to suggest that Johnson could stand up for London, let alone inspire young Londoners (like myself) to turn out and vote for him because “he’s humorous”, is as insulting as it is disingenuous.
Thankfully younger Londoners will judge Ken Livingstone on his record of delivering on the environment, equality, policing and more affordable homes.
Ken’s record stands in sharp contrast to Johnson’s pledge to abolish the 50% affordable housing policy, big cuts to London's transport and policing budgets and opposition to the Kyoto Agreement.
Let the likes of Cohen and Bright sling their mud, the facts will speak for themselves…
- Pav Akhtar, London, England
I agree that London is very likely to get a Conservative Mayor, if Conservatives all over the area go out and vote for Boris on 1st May. He is much more attractive to all ages than the tired, smug, expensive, and rattled Livingstone. The young who normally don't vote see Boris as honest and humourous for a politician. By the way, not all London is used to apparent Conservative defeats as Nick Cohen says - Wandsworth Council has been Conservative for 30 years and we are celebrating it this year!
- Richard Tracey, Wandsworth, England
