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Business needs Brown to stick to his guns in backing Europe

Anthony Hilton
14 Jan 2008


The Prime Minister's New Year resolution not to shy away from tough decisions saw the Government give encouragement last week to the building of new nuclear plants, and today found him, for the first time anyone could remember, giving full-blooded endorsement to a pro-European business conference.

Given the contortions he recently went through to avoid being photographed in Lisbon with other European leaders signing the new treaty, this is significant. Today, at an event organised by the Government and the pro-EU Business for New Europe, he gave an upbeat opening speech.

But instead of leaving straight afterwards as politicians usually do, he stayed for the first session, where he joined a panel alongside Lord Browne, formerly of BP, and Centrica chairman Roger Carr to discuss energy policy and climate change and what business and Government could do about each.

The Prime Minister seems at last to realise that the attitude of David Cameron's Tories to Europe is quite at odds with what most serious business leaders in this country want and believe, and could turn into a major area of electoral weakness for the Conservatives.

Their threats to renegotiate Britain's arrangements with Europe and generally to distance the UK from Brussels and its policymaking are considered by much of the business community to be potentially disastrous for this country, and unrealistic in the context of the modern world.

Business leaders may often be irritated by what comes out of Brussels but they also understand that we should work for reform from within because we have no realistic alternative to membership. George Bush's Presidency has underlined the risks of identifying too closely with the US and the one-way nature with which the Americans regard such a relationship. On the other hand, separation from the EU, Britain's major market, would leave the country like an overpopulated Iceland - without the cod - condemned to increasing irrelevance and steady relative decline, even in financial services.

Third, they recognise that this country cannot by itself influence policy on the major issues confronting the world, but will have to work for its objectives through the mechanisms of the European Union.

Pro-European business leaders - which is probably most of them - tend not to speak out because they do not want to be targeted by the zealots in the anti-European lobby. Silence has also been a fairly safe option because with Labour in power, there was no prospect of Government seeking to mess around with Britain's status within the EU.

The rise of the Tories in the polls changes that cosy assumption, and in consequence they are beginning to find their voice. But if they are going to stand up and take the flak, so must the Prime Minister. The support he showed today must not be a one-off. ounce to edge past the previous alltime high of $875, set way back in 1981.

But this is a different market from the Seventies and Eighties - a time when paper currency had such a bad reputation because of inflation that even pension funds took stakes in gold. Today's market is interesting but certainly not feverish. It has taken a bull run of several years' standing to get the price to the current high.

For the most part, too, demand is driven by the rapidly expanding and increasingly prosperous middle classes of India and elsewhere who can afford to indulge their traditional interest in gold jewellery with renewed enthusiasm. It is not driven by fears of upheaval or the collapse of faith in the ability of the world's currencies to hold their value.

It is odd to say this of a metal hitting its highs, but gold has always been a pretty poor investment other than at those rare times when civil society breaks down.

Today's record is no such thing if adjustment is made for inflation, In real terms, the $875 of 1981 in the money of 2008 is the equivalent of $2200 - a point that is all the more relevant because, unlike most investments, gold yields no income (unless you lend it) and may incur storage costs.

The other too-often-ignored point is that the dollar has been sliding all the time gold has been climbing. If one reckons the US currency has dropped by a third, which is roughly right, then the $900 record price is in fact $600 for the average non-American buyer.

Investors who came out of euros into gold have had a much less enjoyable ride. The moral is that gold is fun and gold is interesting, but unless you want to wear it, it makes little sense to buy it.

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