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Boris and Ken losing lead among 'influentials'
Pippa Crerar, Political Correspondent25.02.08
Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson are losing the support of "influential" Londoners to smaller parties, a poll reveals.
Although the contest is still a two-horse race there are encouraging signs for Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick.
The former senior Met officer increased his lead over rivals when respondents were asked who would win their second preference votes - backing his belief he can seize power if he makes it through to the second round of voting on 1 May.
After the initial vote count, the top two candidates will go to the second round, with second preference votes of the eliminated candidates being re-allocated if they are for either of the two frontrunners.
Mr Paddick was also the only major candidate to increase his share of support for first-preference votes, although he remains some way behind Mr Livingstone and Mr Johnson.
Today's YouGovStone poll for the Evening Standard asked 663 Londoners from the business, culture, education, government, media and voluntary sectors for their views on the mayoral race.
According to the poll, Mr Johnson is still the front-runner among "influentials", attracting 41 per cent of first preference votes, down from 44 per cent last month.
Mr Livingstone is on 34 per cent, down four, while Mr Paddick is on 15 per cent, up three, and Green Sian Berry is down one point on three per cent.
The smaller parties, including Respect, the Christian Alliance and the Stop Congestion Charging party, picked up seven points between them.
Mr Paddick was the most popular second choice, with 43 per cent of respondents prepared to offer him their second-preference vote, up from 37 last month.
If the first and second preference votes were added together, Mr Johnson would receive 57 per cent of the vote and Mr Livingstone 49 per cent. However, not all second preference votes will come into play - if a voter's first choice makes it through to the second round their second preference vote is not counted. Mr Paddick said: "The longer the campaign runs, the stronger my position becomes. This new poll echoes the very warm reception I am getting from Londoners as I campaign across the capital."
The two frontrunners were almost neckand-neck on whether respondents thought they would do most to enhance London's reputation, with Mr Johnson on 35 per cent and Mr Livingstone on 32. Mr Paddick was up three points to 14.
Mr Livingstone was most trusted to deal with another terrorist attack in London, beating Mr Johnson by 33 per cent to 28 per cent, while Mr Paddick, one of the public faces of the Met after the July 2005 attacks, came a close third on 24 per cent.
The poll also established that " influential" Londoners felt their city was the best in the world, with 38 per cent giving it their backing compared with 24 per cent for New York and eight per cent for Paris.
The YouGovStone survey was carried out between 13 and 20 February. Any totals that do not come to 100 are a result of "don't know" responses.
In the latest of our agenda-setting debates about issues facing London, the Evening Standard Influentials/YouGovStone Debate tonight asks: How can London stay ahead as the great world city?
Guest speakers are Mr Livingstone, LBC presenter Nick Ferrari, Financial Times editor Lionel Barber and Labour MP Diane Abbott.
The debate, from 6.30pm at the Royal Society of Arts in John Adam Street, Charing Cross, is chaired by journalist Jonathan Freedland.
Reader views (10)
We now have a selection of bizarre candidates.
I have no idea, yet the winner will have huge influence on the future of London and the UK.
- Nick, London
Boris as Mayor and Paddick as deputy - the dream ticket!
A chimpanzee would make a better balanced job than Red Ken - perhaps we could bring one of the PG Tips stars out of retirement.
- David, Shifnal, UK
What I find so difficult on this is the use of my second vote. If my first vote goes through does my second vote still count or what? I do know one thing- who I do not want to get in but is my second vote important? I simply do not know.
- Richard Moore, London
As someone who often works in London, I think it's time for a change. If I could vote, mine would go to Brian Paddick. He sounds like a breath of fresh air.
- Alistair Macdonald, Whaley Bridge, UK
You heard it here first- vote Lib Dem.
Can you imagine waking up to find Boris Mayor of London? It beggars belief....
- Alan Hall, Lewisham London
Aren't the Brits and the Londoners fed-up with the corruption, expenses, spin, wars, taxes, police state, NHS disasters, etc, that the Conservatives and Labours have brought to the UK. Never mind the cost and fund raising of electoral campaigns. Meanwhile the Lib. Dems. have been rather neat all the way through. I believe that, if London wants a change, Paddick is the only choice.
At least when he speaks, he doesn't sound like he is about to crucify or send the boys to who either challenges him. He seems to be well balanced, well spoken and I am sure far more aware of Londoner's needs, than the two bullies who should think twice before opening their mouth. You got my vote Paddick. Don't vote against, vote for.
Labour and Conservatives have had 20 odd years or so, to prove to us that they are unfit to govern.
- Lauren, London
I've looked at these numbers and if you reallocate the Paddick's 15% and the Green and Others 10% as second preferences by any reasonable criteria you can only get to one conclusion - BORIS WINS!
- John Moss, Chingford, London
I'm a Tory but I can't vote for that clown. What happened to Steve Norris?
- Jeffrey, Croydon, South London
Persecuting commercial traffic in London will drive business away with disastrous consequences. If we are to control traffic in London we must discriminate between essential and non-essential traffic. At the moment it is already difficult to get services and deliveries in some areas, soon it will be impossible.
- Richard Morse, London; England
A lot of people don't realise that the second vote is lost if that candidate doesn't make it through to the last two.
People should vote first choice for Paddick and then 2nd choice for who they can best stomach out of Ken and Boris.
- Vince, Kent
