Morning:
8°c
Never mind the East Midlands earthquake. Are the tectonic plates starting to move in London? As the historic cathedral city of Lincoln suffered falling chimneys, that other age-old focus of pageantry and worship, Ken Livingstone, suffered falling poll ratings. As houses in Grimsby developed visible cracks, so too did Mr Livingstone's bid for re-election: a YouGov survey put him five points behind his main rival, Boris Johnson - the first time in eight years Ken has trailed in the polls.
Like the earthquake, the magnitude of this event should not be exaggerated. It's only one poll. And while Mr Livingstone has lost ground over the past six weeks, Boris hasn't yet gained it. The main beneficiary is the Lib-Dems' Brian Paddick, on a rising but still distant 12 per cent.
It's possible that those Ken deserters may vote Paddick first preference, Livingstone second - which, in the current state of the parties, is effectively a vote for Ken. (If your first-preference vote is not for a candidate who comes in the top two but your second-preference vote is, it's your second-preference vote that counts.)
And though Boris's performance has improved, he must still do more to avoid the risk of a "Neil Kinnock moment": that point, almost palpable in the 1992 general election, when people intending to throw out the Tories recoiled at the last minute from the untried Kinnock. So for now, Ken probably remains the narrow favourite.
Yet as well as the poll come other signs that HMS Livingstone is taking on water. The most interesting ping on the sonar was from some of the Mayor's own supporters, in the form of an open letter, or rather open goal, from Compass, a Labour pressure group.
"Livingstone has been the frontrunner for re-election, but alarm bells may be sounding," admitted Compass. It paid flattering tribute to the "attack dog" activities of the Evening Standard, "the most influential paper in the country because every decision-maker and influencer in London reads it".
But what was "perhaps most alarming of all", the letter continued, was the "writers and commentators who claim to be 'on the left' taking the fight to Livingstone in a way that will only result in victory for Johnson".
That, I think, is a reference to me, and to Martin Bright, political editor of the New Statesman, and to Nick Cohen, the Standard and Observer columnist - traitorous renegades from the running-dog "Lefties Against Livingstone" grouping. We're out and we're proud.
But the Compass plea for "every progressive voter, activist and organisation to get behind the campaign to re-elect Ken" is an admission that the problem goes far wider than a few hacks. What's interesting, nowadays, is how many other broadly progressive Londoners have doubts about their Mayor.
This is a man who, for all Compass's attempts to paint him as a champion of "democracy, equality and sustainability", treats any democratic bid to scrutinise him with insults and contempt; a man already talking about being Mayor after the 2012 election when he hasn't won the 2008 one yet; a man, in short, taking the voters for granted.
As for equality, his director of equalities is one Lee Jasper. And a reworked congestion charge that allows 80,000 small cars into central London for free won't do much for sustainability.
Compass claims that Livingstone has brought in "cheaper public transport". It must mean that other Ken Livingstone, the genuinely progressive GLC one, whose cheap fares made his name. The new, sustainable Ken charges some of the highest public transport fares in the world. Even with Oyster, the single off-peak bus fare, London's most bought ticket, rose by 25 per cent in 2007.
Compass's other points include: "It's them and us. And Ken Livingstone is us," and the quasi-playground cry: "Boris Johnson would just make everything worse."
Those arguments actually show two of Livingstone's weaknesses: his sectarianism, and his belief that Boris is a disaster from whom all Londoners will recoil. As some London Labour MPs pointed out to Ken at a recent private meeting, their constituents simply don't see Boris that way.
Nor are those MPs exactly fighting to endorse Ken. Only three London Labour MPs, out of 44, signed the Compass letter; only two London Labour council leaders, of nine; only one London Labour MEP, of three.
If even your own office-holders won't step up to the plate, you've got a problem. Labour's lack of enthusiasm is explained by possibly the most significant thing ever said about Livingstone, by Kinnock: "Everyone likes Ken, except the people who know him." Labour tolerated Livingstone when he looked competent and a winner. Now, as the sleaze clouds gather, tolerance may be running low.
For progressives, too, it seems highly unlikely that Boris would "make everything worse". Livingstone supports ID cards and police shoot-to-kill on suspicion; has bullied and smeared the anti-war protestor Brian Haw; honours racist and homophobic clerics; and has handed property developers the keys to the city, so long as their buildings are more than 40 storeys high. Boris would do none of those things.
Most extraordinarily, last week, Livingstone came out against plans to make non-doms pay even a token amount of tax, something which Johnson supports and which is also Labour Party policy, not to mention a matter of elementary fairness. For the Left, following Ken must increasingly feel like being one of those lorry drivers looking for the M5 but led down a farm-track by their faulty sat-nav.
I know why some progressives defend Livingstone so furiously. After years of disappointment with the national Labour government, he presents himself as the last great hope for social justice. I thought that myself for a while, but I've taken Kinnock's advice: I've got to know Ken. I took a close look at what he actually does, as opposed to what he says, and discovered my hope to be misplaced.
