Morning:
8°c
'No one knows how bad things will get'
Simon English, City Correspondent17 Mar 2008
Even wise old birds who thought they'd seen it all before admit to feeling queasy.
The mood in the City drifts between sanguine and panicky, but the most common feeling is one of uncertainty: no one knows how bad this could get.
As traders drifted into offices in Canary Wharf and the Square Mile, jokes about the need to stock up on tinned goods - and possibly firearms - were the order of the day.
One analyst suggested lead is now a good investment, "for the bullets".
In dealing rooms, the atmosphere has been edgy for weeks. Volumes have mostly been light, as traders sat on their hands. Big-fish clients haven't been buying. Optimism is hard to fake.
At smaller stockbrokers, job losses are piling up. Brokers at the bigger players are eyeing each other nervously. Now's not the time to row with the boss.
Today towards two billion shares changed hands by late afternoon. This doesn't yet indicate a raging bear market but it is a sign things are moving again, and not in the right direction.
Asked if a major high street bank could go bust, a senior figure at one of the big four retorted: "We're one of the most secure financial institutions in Europe." Told that this didn't constitute a denial, he replied: "There has never been anything like this.
" When NatWest nearly went bankrupt in the 1980s, stockmarkets weren't so interconnected. Now we are all linked. I can't say it isn't scary."
Dean Baker, a US economist, said the authorities were still failing to address the true size of the problem. He said at this point the financial markets needed credible analysis from the Fed and more transparency, not "happy talk".
He added: "Why is the Fed letting banks borrow hundreds of billions of dollars in secret? What guarantees were given to JPMorgan as part of its takeover of Bear Stearns?"
Nick Bubb, of Pali International, the City's premier retail analyst, said he was "calm and collected", but he was perhaps being satirical. "I've seen a few market crashes before. It's best to just focus on the job," he said.
Economists still predict the downturn will be relatively mild.
In New York, a joker slapped a $2 bill on the doors of the Manhattan HQ of Bear Stearns - a reference to the price per share the bank has just fetched.
Fear and loathing stalk Wall Street but the end of the world has been delayed until tomorrow. The City is watching.
