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Labour MPs under threat
Joe Murphy, Political Editor02.05.08
Home Secretary Jacqui Smith today topped a list of Labour MPs facing defeat at the next election in the wake of the town hall results.
Her chances of keeping her marginal Redditch seat faded as the Conservatives seized control of the local council by taking four seats from Labour. She heads a string of Labour MPs facing wipe-out at the next general election unless Gordon Brown leads a Labour comeback.
Other big names at risk in London and the South-East are Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly, Higher Education minister Bill Rammell, former transport minister and actress Glenda Jackson, Government whip Claire Ward and a clutch of ministerial aides.
Mr Rammell is MP for Harlow, where the Conservatives seized control of the council. Their surge left his majority of 97 looking paper thin.
The dire national result sent shivers of terror down the spines of Labour MPs in marginal seats, who could be looking for new jobs within two years if the party does not improve.
Election nerves are likely to affect party discipline, too, making crunch votes even more difficult to win. Fewer MPs will be willing to upset local voters on unpopular issues. The danger for Mr Brown is that unease may spread from the marginals to the party's heartlands as activists begin to fear their government losing power.
Also high on the danger list is backbencher Rudi Vis, the MP for Finchley and Golders Green - the number one Labour target for the Conservatives. His 2005 majority of 741 is reduced to an estimated 31 after boundary changes.
Laura Moffatt, the PPS to Health Secretary Alan Johnson, is defending a minuscule majority of 37 in Crawley. Celia Barlow, the PPS to Innovations minister Ian Pearson, has just 420 votes in hand at Hove. Ms Jackson's 3,279 majority is reduced to a third of that size by boundary changes at Hampstead & Kilburn.
Ms Ward, who was the youngest MP when she won Watford in 1997, is down to a 1,148 majority over the Liberal Democrats. Also vulnerable to the third party is Emily Thornberry, whose 7,280 majority of 2005 is slashed to roughly 484 by boundary reforms.
Others in the "killing fields" of the South-East include former Guardian journalist Martin Linton, nursing a 163 majority in Battersea; Phyllis Starkey, with an estimated majority of 483 after boundary changes in Milton Keynes South; and Howard Stoate, holding Dartford by 706.
Tensions between Labour MPs and the whips have risen in recent weeks, with the revolt over the 10p tax rate and the looming 42 days detention vote.
Home Secretary Ms Smith is the most vulnerable Cabinet minister, with her majority of 2,716 in Redditch cut to below 2,000 by boundary changes. A swing of three per cent could see her out.
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P45s all round please.
- Jeremy E, London
This article gives every sign of being written before the results. If "London Elects" releases results by ward, as in 2004, I'm expecting London will look much less serious for Labour that the rest of England and Wales may look this week. Which Labour MP's in London saw more Tory than Labour votes in their constituencies on 1 May.
That would be a turn-up for the books for those of us who keep saying that London is the most right-wing of all Britain's big cities. Labour can still win the next General Election.
- Alan Griffiths, Forest Gate, LONDON. UK
'In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king !' Unfortunately for Gordon and his gutless comrades, we can see and we don't like what's been happening for 11 years. Give us a general election and get the pain over with as quickly as possible.
- Doug Watt, London
