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Labour MPs under threat
Joe Murphy, Political Editor02.05.08
Home Secretary Jacqui Smith today topped a list of Labour MPs facing defeat at the next election in the wake of the town hall results.
Her chances of keeping her marginal Redditch seat faded as the Conservatives seized control of the local council by taking four seats from Labour. She heads a string of Labour MPs facing wipe-out at the next general election unless Gordon Brown leads a Labour comeback.
Other big names at risk in London and the South-East are Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly, Higher Education minister Bill Rammell, former transport minister and actress Glenda Jackson, Government whip Claire Ward and a clutch of ministerial aides.
Mr Rammell is MP for Harlow, where the Conservatives seized control of the council. Their surge left his majority of 97 looking paper thin.
The dire national result sent shivers of terror down the spines of Labour MPs in marginal seats, who could be looking for new jobs within two years if the party does not improve.
Election nerves are likely to affect party discipline, too, making crunch votes even more difficult to win. Fewer MPs will be willing to upset local voters on unpopular issues. The danger for Mr Brown is that unease may spread from the marginals to the party's heartlands as activists begin to fear their government losing power.
Also high on the danger list is backbencher Rudi Vis, the MP for Finchley and Golders Green - the number one Labour target for the Conservatives. His 2005 majority of 741 is reduced to an estimated 31 after boundary changes.
Laura Moffatt, the PPS to Health Secretary Alan Johnson, is defending a minuscule majority of 37 in Crawley. Celia Barlow, the PPS to Innovations minister Ian Pearson, has just 420 votes in hand at Hove. Ms Jackson's 3,279 majority is reduced to a third of that size by boundary changes at Hampstead & Kilburn.
Ms Ward, who was the youngest MP when she won Watford in 1997, is down to a 1,148 majority over the Liberal Democrats. Also vulnerable to the third party is Emily Thornberry, whose 7,280 majority of 2005 is slashed to roughly 484 by boundary reforms.
Others in the "killing fields" of the South-East include former Guardian journalist Martin Linton, nursing a 163 majority in Battersea; Phyllis Starkey, with an estimated majority of 483 after boundary changes in Milton Keynes South; and Howard Stoate, holding Dartford by 706.
Tensions between Labour MPs and the whips have risen in recent weeks, with the revolt over the 10p tax rate and the looming 42 days detention vote.
Home Secretary Ms Smith is the most vulnerable Cabinet minister, with her majority of 2,716 in Redditch cut to below 2,000 by boundary changes. A swing of three per cent could see her out.
Reader views (19)
The vast majority of mp's are not ordering expensive steak pies on the tax payer. It was wrong to claim too much my lad. But they all need to remember that according to section 456 of the Hampton Court Balouse MP's must be accoutable to the state, Queen and bunswick.
- Steve Newbury, Amersham Bucks
P45s all round please.
- Jeremy E, London
This article gives every sign of being written before the results. If "London Elects" releases results by ward, as in 2004, I'm expecting London will look much less serious for Labour that the rest of England and Wales may look this week. Which Labour MP's in London saw more Tory than Labour votes in their constituencies on 1 May.
That would be a turn-up for the books for those of us who keep saying that London is the most right-wing of all Britain's big cities. Labour can still win the next General Election.
- Alan Griffiths, Forest Gate, LONDON. UK
'In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king !' Unfortunately for Gordon and his gutless comrades, we can see and we don't like what's been happening for 11 years. Give us a general election and get the pain over with as quickly as possible.
- Doug Watt, London
I dispute Mdj's biased assertion about the Tories and suggest that more care is taken with words next time. I agree with Mdj that Boris just might treat with honour and wisdom the amazingly amount of power that the mayor of London holds and hopefully will be guided by informed advisers who take the long term view for London rather than adhere to strategies for 'short term and often illusory gain'.
- Helen, Norwich
Why can't they just cross the benches and become members of the conservative party?
- John, Essex UK
I suspect I'm only one of many who would like there to be a Labour Party to vote for that did what it said on the tin, and have voted Tory as an extreme step to force Labour to clean up its act. Self-serving, undemocratic, underhanded sleazy conduct is the sign of a Labour party in moral decay. With the Tories, it's the very nature of the beast, so you may as well be governed by the genuine article.
On the positive side, people have seen in Boris the sort of unpackaged, undisciplined figure they saw in Ken in 2000, who might listen to the people rather than the party machine. Whether this is a true perception only time can tell.
- Mdj, , London
Good riddance.
- Christopher Miles, Waihi, New Zealand
And the bad news is?
- Pip, Banstead, Surrey
The Labour Party used to be for the hard working man, that is no longer so. NEW LABOUR are just for themselves and have no idea how the rest of us feel. Gordon Brown, especially hasn't the foggiest idea what the electorate actually want, a referendum on Europe, more take home pay not less as with the new income tax rules AND our troops out of Iraq. He says he listens but he must be deaf.
- Gwen Buxton, Coulsdon, Surrey
This is the best news ever! I used to be a lifelong Labour supporter, but never again! This government has turned out to be a cesspit of total inadequates out to feather their own nest with no regard to scruples/morals.
I honestly cannot see a better alternative to vote for, but the sooner we get rid of this shabby lot of miscreants, the better!
- John, Manchester
What saddens me the most is I lived for many years in the USA and I missed the English sense of fair play. Since I have returned I am so shocked at how this Labour Government has lied, spied, and worse made the little people just that much worse off.
- Clint, Lingfield Surrey
Finally, the electorate have realised what a shambles New Labour really is. Took long enough. What a relief.
- Susie W, Cardiff
The PM's response to this disaster for his party is to promise a 'blizzard' of new policies. Pardon me for sighing. We've had too many blizzards. The Labour Party can no longer see the trees, and the wood has turned to rot. Our doctors and nurses are chasing chasing targets instead of treating people, our schools are tipping into chaos, while our streets are falling prey to anti-social teenagers whose morals come from Grand Theft Auto. Labour, you had your chance and you messed up. Give up and get out.
- Nick Stone, Bath
Labour's introduction of top-up fees was one of the main reasons I couldn't bring myself to vote Labour. As well as Iraq, the rail fare hike and the u-turn on a PR referendum.
It's therefore ironic that Bill Rammell, the Higher Education minister may lose his seat.
He is the guy who claimed that without top-up fees there would be a "3p or 4p" rise in the standard rate of tax.
Given that top up fees bring in the relatively small sum of £1.4 billion he'll hope the Harlow returning office shares Bill Rammell's grasp of maths.
- Bernard North, London
I am a single mum who finds it extremely hard to make ends meet, running my car alone was £150+ a month. Unfortunately, I had to give my car up and 'bus' it everywhere with my four-year-old in tow! (Although that isn't that much cheaper!). The council tax rise and closure of our post offices is beyond ridiculous...It is impossible to live in this day and age unless you have a healthy salary and what really tickles me is the fact the government have such a high opinion of how much people need to live on but they feel the need to live in houses paid by us, eat food paid by us and still earn a six figure salary! British families are being penalised and pushed aside.
Conservatives have got my vote all the way, get rid of Labour before England suffocates from their greed and lack of compassion for the little people!
- Sarah, Reading, UK
I'm a 57 year old living on a private pension in a rural area. I've just seen my pension rise by £43 a month, and I've just seen my income tax rise by £20 a month. With gas, electricity, water, fuel, and food inflation in double figures how am I expected to live? The abolition of the 10% tax, and replacement 20% tax has hit me hard. Brown's slight of hand compensation plan of course won't do anything for me. Still if I can survive till I'm 60 I may (or may not) get an extra winter fuel allowance payment. Which of course may or may not exist in three years time. Brown says he's listening... trouble is he's not hearing. If he were, he'd apologise and go now. Taking from the poor and giving to the rich may not have been his brightest thought... though it is typical of his and New Labour's thinking. After all he did get a good 'Headline' after the 2007 Budget didn't he. Old rural saying 'what one sow's, so one reaps'!
- L Gibbins, Isle of Wight
If the Labour leadership and MPs pin all the blame for New Labour's drubbing on the 10p tax fiasco or the economy, they have learned nothing and will be deservedly thrown out at the next General Election (when Gordon Brown is finally forced to allow one).
People are sick of another dogmatic, dictatorial Prime Minister who is pushing ahead with attacks on our freedoms and rights. If Gordon Brown does not scrap the hugely wasteful, completely unnecessary, democracy-threatening ID Card and NIR system he will be evicted from Downing Street as soon as the electorate get the chance to vote on it.
His authoritarian attitude to the people he is supposed to serve, contrasts markedly with his sycophantic approach to the US President and his policies.
Talking about listening to the people is not the same as actually listening. Labour MPs must force the government to abandon disastrous and unwanted policies. Although they will not risk causing an early election, they can only prevent an election for a limited period.
- Stan Evans, Derby, UK
If Labour is truly serious about sending a signal to the British people that they are ready to listen, a very large positive indicator would be the offering of a referendum on the E.U. Constitution (Lisbon Treaty). The UK's approval of the new constitution was shoved through Parliament in an underhanded way, with all of the parties (including the Conservatives) not making any commitment to hold a referendum. Setting up a referendum, in which the people of this country finally get a say on whether this island is to remain a country or is to become a part of something bigger, would send a very positive and welcome signal to the people that Mr Brown is listening.
- Phil Jones, London UK
