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There is a glimmer of hope for Gordon
Bill Emmott23 Jun 2008
Whether or not travel broadens the mind, it certainly changes your perspective. Running around Japan, China and America these past three weeks as part of a book tour has made me think anew about whether the centre of the world's economic gloom is truly, as most believe, American sub-prime mortgages, British house prices and rising inflation in both those countries.
With that new thinking comes a glimmer of a sense that Gordon Brown's predicament might, in fact, get better as time goes on.
On this anniversary week of his ascent to 10 Downing Street, that is what he too must be hoping. For the focus of global attention should not in fact be on the troubled Atlantic economies. It should be on Asia, on Asian inflation rates, and on China in particular.
Ever since the credit crunch began on 9 August last year, and brought down Northern Rock the following month, the consensus has been roughly as follows. America, Britain and a few others such as Ireland and Spain have depended far too much on house-price rises, on borrowing and on fancy finance.
Those days have come to an end, with the banks writing off billions in losses. America is heading into at best stagnation, at worst recession, with house prices falling by 10-20 per cent a year. Britain is doomed to follow. Labour and Gordon Brown are doomed to lose the next election, even if our currently unesteemed prime minister somehow manages to look purposeful and decisive.
Asia and the other emerging markets, meanwhile, are assumed to be more or less immune to the Atlantic downturn, since their abundant capital is fuelling bumper growth. Moreover, by that very strength they are turning the economic screw on Britain and America by demanding more and more oil and eating more and more meat, driving the oil price up to an amazing $140 a barrel (amazing because it has doubled in little more than a year).
The result was Mervyn King's letter last week to Alistair Darling explaining why inflation in Britain is higher at 3.3 per cent than it is supposed to be, which in turn means his Bank of England will be unable to cut interest rates any time soon. Which more or less guarantees that the house-price fall will accelerate as fewer people can afford mortgages, even if the banks are willing to offer them, and that the feel-bad factor will just feel worse and worse.
The prevailing assumption in America is pretty similar. As the presidential election approaches in November, unemployment is expected to rise sharply, inflation to stay high and house prices to carry on falling. Opinion is divided on how much that will help Barack Obama but it can hardly help his Republican opponent, John McCain, given that his party is the incumbent one.
Yet, to go by the talk in Beijing, increasingly the alternative economic capital of the globe, these assumptions may in fact turn out to be wrong - perhaps not in time to help Senator McCain but quite possibly soon enough to brighten Gordon Brown's prospects.
Inflation is now a serious concern all over Asia. It is not just an awkward side-effect of a record-breaking run of economic growth. It is seen as a threat to that growth and even to social and political stability. Inflation has jumped to 11 per cent in India, the highest for 13 years; to 25 per cent in Vietnam, previously outsiders' hot tip for the next great success story; and is now 7.7 per cent in China, even though that represents a small drop from an 8.5 per cent annual rate just previously.
As in Britain, energy and food prices are blamed. Asian countries have tried to suppress the effect of rising oil prices by subsidising fuel for ordinary motorists. But last week China decided the cost was getting out of control and the Government raised retail fuel prices by 18 per cent, which is sure to mean that the next official inflation figure will be higher.
The true culprit for Asia's inflation problem is rampant money growth, as Asian governments have kept interest rates low in order to keep their currencies cheap against the dollar and euro, and thus to keep their exports competitive. But that policy is running out of road. Rumblings of protest about inflation are beginning to be heard. The strain of buying - and subsidising - oil at $140 a barrel is beginning to become too much.
During the next six months, more and more Asian countries look likely to focus on trying to defeat inflation, by raising interest rates and letting currencies appreciate. China is the most important, because it is the biggest and has been growing the fastest, but it is a fair bet that it will do nothing tough or drastic until the Olympics are safely out of the way in August.
If this inflation crackdown does then occur, these Asian countries' growth will slow, perhaps sharply. So, therefore, will overall global growth, making it appear as if all our economic troubles are deepening. But in fact this Asian slowdown would be part of the solution, not a new problem. For slower Asian, especially Chinese, growth, would mean a big drop in demand for oil and other natural resources, which in turn would send those prices tumbling.
And that brings Gordon's glimmer. Cheaper petrol, a fall in inflation, probably cheaper food, too, would this autumn or next spring allow the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates, bringing the chance that Britain's recession could be a shorter-lived and less painful affair than many are now fearing.
As 2009 goes on, recovery could get under way, with feelbad turning towards feeling-slightly-better.
The odds are that Labour is still doomed. But this sort of pattern would raise just a chance that Gordon Brown could model his survival strategy on that of a previous unlikely electionwinner: John Major in 1992. He'd have to make the idea that he stands for experience and solidity compared with the flighty novice David Cameron actually feel credible, which it doesn't right now.
And he might have to hope that David Cameron has a Sheffield moment, shattering his image as that hubristic rally did Neil Kinnock's. Even Prime Ministers can dream.
• Bill Emmott's new book is Rivals: How the power struggle between China, India and Japan will shape our next decade, published by Allen Lane.
Reader views (1)
So Gordon has "secured" an extra 200,000 BPD production from the Saudi's. This equates to approximately one quarter of one percent of the world's daily consumption, well done Gordon this will really make a difference!
- Dannyp, Egham, 23/06/2008 14:20
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