Gordon Brown's predicament in the aftermath of the Glasgow East by-election is serious - yet that should not make anyone imagine that his demise is imminent. Talk of plotting is rife; many Labour MPs are in a state of despair. Yet the lack of an alternative candidate willing to make the first move may save Mr Brown for the moment.

Certainly he is in dire straits. More opinion polls over the weekend confirmed the Conservatives' consistent 20-point-plus lead on Labour. The economic backdrop is gloomy. Normally loyal supporters in the press and elsewhere are turning on Mr Brown. The Government appears to be in the kind of spiral of decline that so ravaged the Conservatives in the dying days of John Major's government.

But none of the potential challengers, such as David Miliband, have broken cover. Labour has never yet dumped a leader, and no one wants to be seen as the assassin. Some predict a delegation of senior cabinet members led by justice secretary Jack Straw could persuade Mr Brown that he must step down, with Mr Straw taking over as a caretaker leader until after the next election. But this assumes that Mr Brown would stand aside, and that Mr Straw would tell him to do so, both of which are far from clear; nor does it seem likely that other potential contenders would accept another "coronation". And with more concessions to the unions over the weekend, Mr Brown may be able buy more support there - even if there are negative electoral consequences.

After the Glasgow East and Crewe and Nantwich by-elections, many Labour MPs fear for their own survival. The question is, at what point do enough members of the Cabinet feel the same way to demand that Mr Brown step down, or else persuade someone else to challenge him. They do not yet appear to have reached that point. But if they are to act, time is short.

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