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Comment: War stops but no real peace
Evening Standard12 Aug 2008
The Russians have declared that they are suspending operations in Georgia, having achieved what they set out to do. According to the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, "The aggressor has been punished" and "the safety of our civilians and peacekeepers has been restored". It is welcome that the Russians have halted their campaign in advance of the visit to Moscow of the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who is trying to broker a peace deal - but the announcement came after the bombing of the Georgian city of Gori, in which a number of civilians were reportedly killed. Further, the Russians' policy of handing out passports to people in secessionist areas beforehand, and foisting its peacekeepers on South Ossetia, is no justification for its intervention in this separatist enclave, however provocative the Georgian president may have been. As the Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, says in his article for this paper today, Russia "has violated the integrity of a democratic and sovereign neighbouring country".
Mr Miliband concedes that a military response to Russian actions is not an option for Britain. But he signals there are other diplomatic and economic measures that will be considered by the EU foreign ministers when they meet tomorrow in Brussels, including blocking Russia's bid to be a member of the World Trade Organisation. We may depend on Russian oil and gas for some of our energy needs, but Russia cannot gamble on that dependence.
It is, however, sobering to reflect that had Georgia been a full Nato member, rather than a candidate for membership, Britain would have been obliged to take military action in its support. The obvious lesson must be that Nato membership can be awarded only after open debate about the potential consequences.
The Georgians' miscalculation in trying to effect a military solution in South Ossetia has set back their claim for early Nato membership. But we should be under no illusions that Moscow will draw a line under this conflict: there remains the threat that it will seek to replicate its actions in Abkhazia, another separatist region of Georgia and a client statelet of Russia. This crisis has been suspended for now, but a lasting peace settlement is still far distant. And it requires a coherent and united European response.
