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Comment: Russia wins the peace in Georgia
Evening Standard13.08.08
The war in the Caucasus is, at least for now, at an end, even if reports persist of sporadic fighting. The Russians and the Georgians have agreed to the peace plan promoted by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, whereby the military forces of the two sides are withdrawn to the positions they occupied before the conflict. But we should have no illusions about this outcome. The Russians have got what they set out to achieve - they have undermined the sovereignty of Georgia, they have reinforced their right to exercise control in the Caucasus, they have curbed Nato expansion eastward and they have, more worryingly, established the principle that Russia has a right to intervene in any territory where the safety of Russian citizens and Russian peacekeepers is endangered.
Russia awarded its passports to thousands of South Ossetians before this conflict and in 1992 it foisted its peacekeepers on the area - it has, then, a pretext for intervention whenever it wishes. It also awarded citizenship freely in the other Georgian separatist area of Abkhazia, where conflict persists. Other republics in the region with large Russian populations must be very worried indeed. The Georgian citizens who live in South Ossetia are now very vulnerable. Crucially, the conflict will undermine efforts to develop infrastructure in Georgia to transport greater supplies of oil and gas to Europe from the Caspian, bypassing Russia.
Granted, the Georgian president was wrong to seek to exert his country's sovereignty over South Ossetia militarily in the way he did last week. But the extent of Russian overreaction to the move, sending troops deep within Georgian territory and bombing Georgian cities, suggests that Moscow's aims were larger than the prevention of "genocide". Now Western governments have to make clear, as best they can, their repugnance at the Russian actions. The US has already cancelled joint naval exercises with Russia and EU governments are reconsidering support for Russia's membership of the World Trade Organisation. It must be brought home to Moscow that its actions have long-term consequences.
