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Analysis: More carriers will be brought down
Jonathan Prynn, Evening Standard29 Aug 2008
There is an old adage that since Orville and Wilbur Wright got off the ground just over a century ago the aviation industry as a whole has not made a single penny profit.
The current climate is as tough as any, with the possible exception of the months immediately after 9/11. While that was a relatively short-term shock, with passengers staying at home out of fear, the current downturn looks far more profoundly threatening.
The list of airlines that have gone under grows weekly with Zoom certain not to be the last.
Even Ryanair, one of the world's most profitable airlines, has said it could make a loss this year as its fuel bill grows from 36 per cent to 50 per cent of total costs.
At British Airways the top brass are locked in meetings about survival strategies for the perfect storm the industry is now flying through.
So far it has been mainly relatively recently formed budget airlines that have gone under.
Nobody thinks it will stop there. Greater environmental controls, strain on household budgets, security fears and a general loathing of airports all point towards a slowdown and even a fall in the number of people flying. That would have seemed unthinkable just a year ago.
The industry is expected to lose £3 billion this year. Almost certainly a least one major international carrier will fail, with a rash of mergers.
There will be other victims. Many second home owners in mainland Europe will lose £1 flights to their nearest airports as carriers cut back. The case for expanding Heathrow and Stansted looks increasingly vulnerable.
Never has flying seemed a less attractive option. It is stressful enough as it is. Now throw in the increasing chance that your airline will go bust and leave you stranded while you are away.
No wonder more people are letting the train take the strain.
