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Home Office confirms that leaked crime forecast is real
Joe Murphy, Political Editor01.09.08
A Home Office document predicting a surge in crime, violence and extremism was confirmed as genuine today.
The Government took the rare step of admitting that the leaked letter was written by senior civil servants for Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, though she had not yet "cleared it" to be forwarded to Downing Street.
It predicted a sharp rise in thefts, especially burglaries and car breakins, and muggings as the economic slowdown made people worse off.
A side-effect would be "increased public hostility to migrants" and a rise in membership of far-Right groups. People would question the welfare support given to struggling migrant families.
At the same time, the social damage to communities could make them a recruiting ground for terrorist groups.
The letter was drafted after No10 asked all government departments to assess the likely impact of the economic squeeze on their areas of responsibility.
A link between crime rates and relative prosperity has long been accepted and a report from the Downing Street Strategy Unit even admitted that falls in crime under New Labour were largely down to the booming economy.
It said police budgets would come under strain from extra work and factors like soaring fuel costs, forcing " difficult decisions over officer numbers and priorities".
The Conservatives, who obtained the document, said it was damning. Shadow immigration minister Damian Green said: "It is clear that in almost all areas of the Home Office things are going to get worse."
He demanded a statement on which police activities could be cut.
Reader views (1)
I’m not sure it’s quite what the Home Secretary had in mind when writing to Downing Street, but blanket media coverage on the rise in crime during the recession is certainly what the issue needs. I must say, however, I am slightly shocked that it has taken a serious economic downturn for the government to stand up and take notice of this crippling problem.
Research in the USA has shown that the majority of retailers actually cut their security spending in times of economic turbulence. Granted, this is only one small piece of the jigsaw, but if crime is, as the Home Secretary’s document allegedly states, likely to rise even further in the next year, then Britain really does have a serious problem on its hands.
Anyone with an ounce of economic understanding could work out that less available cash equals more frequent theft, especially in retail. Society cannot just sit back, accept and wait for the inevitable to occur. As a nation, we are certainly good at a lot of things, and burying our heads in the sand when a problem occurs is most definitely one of them. So, our government and esteemed industry leaders need to buck this trend and take heed before it's too late.
I actually believe that the leaked document will prove to be a benefit in months and years to come. If nothing else, it has already drawn greater attention to the huge crime problem that we face here in the UK, which I am sure will do some good in the long run.
- Neil Matthews, Newbury
