Afternoon:
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AS BORIS launches his teenage knife crime strategy today, could there be at least a faint chance that we're already over the worst?
The problem is still desperately serious. Over the past two years, 89 London teenagers have been charged with murder. But that statistic is a lagging indicator a reflection of the recent past.
What's interesting now is that after a year or so in which three to four London kids died every month, the rate may - just may - be slowing down. No teenager has been killed in the capital since Craig Marshall on 26 September, five-and-a-half weeks ago. There have been only two killings, Craig's included, since the end of August.
It is still too early to draw a firm trend in something as relatively rare and as volatile as teenage murder. We had more than a month's "break" between late March and early May, too, after which there was a renewed spate of horrific attacks.
Craig, the 27th London teen murdered in 2008, set a grim new annual record for the crime, with three months of the year to go. Though about half that time has now passed without further fatalities, we probably won't reach the end of December in the same state.
Yet the Met also last week claimed a 10 per cent annual fall in overall knife crime, where there are enough offences to establish a trend. True, the figures are for all knife offences - not just ones causing injury - and for all ages.
And true, the figures came out the same day as some forces, including the Met, admitted they'd been undercounting violent crime. But if the counting was carried out on the same basis both years, the comparison, if not the actual figures, may still be valid.
If there is indeed a reduction in knife crime, it won't be Boris's doing. He hasn't been around long enough. As I wrote in the summer, when stabbings were at a peak, knife-carrying is one crime that could actually improve of its own accord. It's heavily influenced by peer example, a perverted form of teenage fashion - and fashions change. The Mayor's task today is to push at the behaviour change that may, and I stress may, already be happening.
So I was encouraged by the way Boris's deputy, Kit Malthouse, condemned public "intolerance of young people" and "macho" punishments. We have moved from a society where kids playing in the street were a much-desired barometer of safety to one in which it's grounds for Asbos all round. Children are not little adults. They're what adults make them - and if we get there early enough, and try hard enough, the bad ones can be re-made.
Boris and Malthouse are right to put the emphasis on education, with programmes to stop truanting, support the schooling of kids in care and boost organisations such as the Scouts. But talk of a new child jail for first-time offenders is wrong. However much it might want to be a kind of secure college, it will, like all jails, become a gateway to perdition. It should never be a first resort. Luckily, it's difficult to see magistrates and judges falling in with the plan.
The problem with initiatives is that they have to be eye-catching. But rescuing a child screwed by his upbringing is the work of years, not of a three-month jail sentence. I believe that the Mayor understands this. And if the crisis is indeed abating, it might give him the political room to put into effect.
Bending the bus figures
MY favourite Assembly member, Labour's transport chair Val Shawcross, bravely continues her suicide mission to save the bendy bus, quite without thought to her own political safety.
She claims it will cost “£300,000 per vehicle, per year” to bring in new single and double-deckers — a figure that would be plausible only if Jonathan Ross were driving and Lakshmi Mittal checking tickets. Even this month's issue of the restrained industry trade journal Buses calls it “naive” and “amazingly high”.
Representatives of La Shawcross could not, when asked, explain how she had arrived at the amount. It's never a good sign if the only way you can make your case is to appear to make it up.
Reader views (22)
I'm sorry, we have gone too far down one road and now we must turn around. The punishment for an offence should leave no room for a repeat of that offence. I'm most probably a bit too soft for some, but some mercy should be shown.
Carrying a knife without lawful excuse = flogging, or serious jail time.
Using a knife in the commission of a crime = flogging plus extreme jail time.
Victim dies = hanging.
If this is too liberal for some, well so be it. I have been accused of being soft in my attitudes. However If we want a society where we are safe in the future, changes need to be made now.
- Max, Slough, Berkshire
Does anyone really think the smug, know-bests care a monkey's about any of this? So London's getting safer is it?
- Vanessa, St Margarets, London, England
I live in Southfields. Yesterday, 4th November two young males were knived. One has died and been named. However, the knife attack which took place on Augustus Road, a main bus route road, at approximately 6.30 pm has not been mentioned in any news items.
However, we have to deal on a daily basis with out-of-control youngsters. I, like many others, avoid using public transport when the local schools are closing as travelling with these youngsters is like an endurance course.
- Nancy Ford, London
Im sorry but its just that pathetic liberal, limp wristed attitude tht has brought to the sad state of affairs we find our selves in. Its time for these scumbags to be taken off the streets. Bring back hard time where there are no play stations or TV's. Where its a yes sir no sir regime with wardens with big sticks. Only when we make prison somewhere you NEVER EVER want to go back to will these criminals learn to behave.
- Duncan Walker, Ex Peckham now Samui Thailand
Ian, London -
Perhaps you're missing my point, but then what is the point? I am actually one of the lost tribe that dares to challenge this scum-bag riff raffery. But, ask yourself this - this morning (Tuesday 4 November, about 8.00am) on a (391)bus going from Manor Circus, Richmond to Richmond bus garage, a group of out-of-control rude, disrespectful teenage youths kept shouting "**** this" and "**** that", making to get off at each stop, getting on again, seeing a bus they'd rather be on and attempting to get off between stops. Basically, annoying people, including the driver. When it got to the railway station, and they tried to barge past everyone, I stood at the door , astride the aisle,allowing ladies off first and, of course, other passengers - with these rude little nobodies,stuck behind me. Inevitably, they began swearing and complaining again, because though they can "do what they want" they can't stand it is someone tells them they can't. Sadly, but again inevitably, although some people (mainly women) said "Thank you", others meekly chose to leave via the front door, no doubt to avoid any chance of having to become involved. Pathetic, but nothing other than leftie-luvvies like Gilligan, the BBC, GMTV, The 'Grauniad'and other I'm-all right-Jacks have always yearned and craved for.
- Richard Wilson, Kensington, England
Scouts, hahaha... these little feral beasts will laugh at the suggestion as they swagger around thinking they can do anything they wish and not face punishment. We need severe deterrents to stop them and make them realise their actions have consequences. Caught with a knife, 5 years hard labour no early release, caught with a gun and its 10 years, use either and its forever. Only when people own up to their mistakes and accepts the consequences will things change in this country - I suppose you can't expect anything when you have a government that refuses to take any responsibility for its actions either!
- M, London
I think its wrong that teenagers are carryn guns arounds and then getting arrested
- Natalie, Stoke-On-Trent
Andrew, you are right about everything. Boris is right about everything. I love life now that you and Boris are sorting everything out.
- Kennite, London
'Strange how it works'? Not really. It's called "communication" and whether it be growling or chatting or listening or whatever, it beats stabbing. Nobody talks to these kids unless they have to. Scouts may be a naff idea, or with a bit of re-invention it might catch on. Who knows? It's something. The important thing is to include kids in what's going on somehow -- and to find the time and a way to talk to them, which includes listening, too.
- Bloke, London
is there anything u disagree with boris even his hair i think not
- Mat, london
Those hooligans carrying knives with the intention of intimidating others are literally terrorists. Carlos Marighella wrote of the terrorist: 'kill one, frighten ten thousand'. The only way to prevent this is to deter and I agree that incarceration is no answer but corporal punishment could well be and the history of its use in the past including the consequences of its withdrawal (most recently) on the Isle of Man Should be studied.
- Peter Haldane, London
Gilligan suggests that Val Shawcross is on a suicide mission refarding Bendy buses, are we to take this as a threat to wage a daily campaign against her at the next GLA elections like the one against Ken Livingstone?
Its a bit rich that Gilligan mixes his and BOJO's wish for open platform buses with knife crime given the fact that these buses will provide a ready made escape route for those who use knives or even guns on said buses.
The above would be even more appropriate after dark and on night bus routes but so far neither Andrew or Boris have said whether these early elizabethen style buses would be used on all night routes?
- Melvyn Windebank, Canvey Island, Essex
The usual middle-class claptrap spoken by someone looking down from above with no experience of the problem. And as of 23:30 last night it's out of date, a lad stabbed to death in Wandsworth.
- Jd, London
It's a bit rich for Boris to suggest support for the scouts, when he also supports legislation that criminalises the traditional scout practice of carrying a knife.
- Clive, Harrow
My answer to yobs who say "they can do what i like " is very simple...i simply look back at them and growl...."so can i and the rest of us, and theres more of US than there is of YOU"...strange as it may sound the yobs always back down...i wonder why that is ?
OK it wont STOP knife crime or loutish behaviour, but if people stood up to these yobs who rely on the old method of divide and conquer, then there probably wouldnt be the rate of such crime/behaviour as there is now, some people may reguard this as a simplistic approach, maybe it is, strange how it works though...isnt it ?
- Ian, London
Susannah,
He's on Planet Comfort, which is where all the champagne socialists and limousine liberals live. The angers and fears of ordinary people mean nothing to them.
- Richard, Kensington, England
What planet is this man on? I live in Hampstead - all very nice you might think. Except - the only way out of NW3 is via the No 24 bus. I have lately been so frightened by the behaviour of young people on this bus - and bear in mind the doors are locked - that I have taken to either using taxis (I can't really afford them), the tube or just plain walking - which with shopping is not always practical. Just trying being "one of the people" in Inner London and see how terrifying it is. Lock them away for as long as possible I say.
- Susannah, London UK
To bring back Routemaster buses must be expensive. How about getting businesses or individuals to sponsor the purchase of these new buses like "adopt an animal at zoo" concept similar to the idea of fundraising in theatres by "naming a seat" if you are a donor. These new buses can be sponsored by retailers who wish to have their names on the buses . This is not the same as advertisement on the buses but I am sure there is a way to work out a solution between sponsorship and advert billboards facilities.
- Suki Lau, London UK
My reference to Gilligan and buses was in relation to gangs of 'yoots' travelling on them and, in one case, saying he can "Do what he likes", when challenged. It's interesting to see the courting of NY and LA mayor, Bratton. What could he do about anything? In his country he has the backing of the courts.
But while we're on the subject of buses, didn't Livingstone say that only a heartless moron would get rid of the Routemaster. Most probably the only piece of truth to leave his mouth.
- Richard, Kensington England
I take it Gilligan doesn't travel on buses.
- Richard Wilson, Kensington, England.
Gilligan accusing someone of "making it up".The words pots and kettles come instantly to mind.
- Colin, barking essex
An interesting article Andrew. Can you explain why you choose to focus solely on teenage knife murder when to strive for a more complete picture you might have included , attempted murder, maimings or indeed mere stabbings, if it comes to that. There is no easy option here but the real problem is much bigger than your article would have us consider and frankly any initiative should be welcomed with open arms.
- Bob Salloway, London, England
