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TODAY, barring perhaps the biggest upset in political history, Barack Obama will be elected President of the United States.
Whether he wins or whether his challenger John McCain manages to turn the race around at the last minute, it will be an extraordinary end to a landmark US election. It will also have profound implications not just for America but for Britain and the rest of the world.
Mr Obama has seemingly unstoppable momentum. He is comfortably ahead in all the states that voted for Democrat John Kerry in 2004, including the key swing state of Pennsylvania, and ahead in the battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, all of which voted Republican last time around. His lead in Virginia is bigger still.
Today fears and conspiracy theories are spreading over whether electronic voting machines will function properly. There are arguments over whether the length of queues to vote will drive some voters away. But states where the Democrat candidate is comfortably ahead account for 238 of the 270 electoral college votes he needs to win; Mr McCain has only 118 votes sewn up in this way.
The campaign has indisputably been Mr Obama's. He has coped well with the relentless pace without any serious slip-ups. He fought a bitter primary campaign against Hillary Clinton but since the summer his massive strength in both fundraising and offices on the ground has seriously outgunned the McCain operation.
Mr McCain has seemed indecisive and ill-informed on the economic crisis, at the same time as often looking old and irritable. Meanwhile, his running mate Sarah Palin is adored by the Republican faithful but has registered little appeal to floating voters.
If Mr Obama does win, it is likely to have immediate beneficial effects internationally. Most important, his election will bring certainty and leadership back to the US, following the most feeble and debilitated two months of George W. Bush's presidency. America has failed to give a lead to a world engulfed in economic crisis: the prospect of Mr Obama taking office in January is likely to rally markets.
Beyond that, though, the euphoria will subside, internationally as well as in the US. Gordon Brown might reasonably look forward to more friendly relations with an Obama administration than a Republican one. But that should not obscure the difficulty of the decisions Mr Obama will have to take, and where Mr Brown may have to follow him.
We know that Mr Obama is committed to continuing the war in Afghanistan; he has sounded a less certain note on Iran's nuclear ambitions. He has also signalled a more protectionist stance on international trade, which would put him at loggerheads with Britain, the EU and others. And while his election may well improve America's image in the world, he remains untested in international affairs.
If Mr Obama wins, it will be a historic moment and, for the mixed race son of an immigrant, a vivid embodiment of the American dream. But he will inherit empty coffers and face a world in deep crisis: a historic moment to be followed by some very tough decisions.
And celebrating...
London theatre. The long list for the Evening Standard Drama awards which we publish today is testament to the vitality and range of the capital's theatre scene. The list highlights the vigour in off-West End productions, notably at the Almeida, the Donmar and the Young Vic.
Michael Grandage's new direction in bringing Donmar productions to Wyndham's Theatre at accessible prices is a promising development for theatre-goers. Our list also demonstrates that classical drama is in good heart, with a slew of strong Shakespeare productions. Our winner for best director last year, Rupert Goold, has continued in fine form with a challenging production of Six Characters in Search of an Author. In other words, our judges are spoilt for choice. In these downbeat times, it's good to know our theatres can provide some solace.
Reader views (2)
Should McCain evolve to the presidency, his baggage of generational sins have to be dealt with: son of ancestorial slave trading and/or slave children. Palin's religious affiliation is an outgrowth of the modern day of Church of Cod in Christ. They both have ties to the African American race that they so want to refuse its existence.
Should Obama be granted the priveledge of becoming the 1st real, 1st genereation African American president, he will put America in line with the world policy that it dictates to the world - deomocracy.
In the world countries, color of ones skin is not a reason to deny a person from being elected to the highest office in the land/word. Religious beliefs has no bearing in a democracy. All religions mingle together. In fact, the neighbors are of different persuasions.
Let Almighty God be true and every man a liar.
If God permits, Obama will be the 2008-09 presidential candidate winner to the 44th president of the USA.
While he may be considered president of the world, only the UN Secretary can have that recognition.
- God'S Elect Lady, Charleston,SC, USA, 04/11/2008 20:15
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With just about every large paper and media outlet in the world, almost, virtually telling Republicans everywhere that they would waste there time by voting, it seems to me that the media are trying to shape the results that they have predicted from word go. Why not just leave it to people to go and vote according to what they see and believe. Leave the reporting until after the election when it won't have any effect on the outcome.
- Rogan, Irving, 04/11/2008 19:25
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