Morning:
9°c
Cameron poll lead smashed
Joe Murphy, Political Editor18.11.08
DAVID CAMERON saw his huge opinion poll lead wiped out today — the same day he recast his
economic policy.
A new survey shows Gordon Brown within three points, destroying a seemingly impregnable Tory lead of 20 points in the summer.
The turnaround, which fanned speculation about an early election in the spring, came as the Tory leader laid down the battle-lines by abandoning his commitment to match Labour on spending.
In a keynote speech, he said planned rises from 2010-11 onwards were “unsustainable”. He also prepared the ground to oppose next week's multi-billion economic stimulus of unfunded tax cuts and spending, financed by temporary borrowing.
“This means saying things that are not immediately popular,” he said. “That we can't afford a massive tax giveaway paid for by a borrowing binge. That we can't afford a spending splurge.”
The Conservatives have lost ground in recent weeks while the Prime Minister has dominated news headlines with his handling of the economic crisis.
In their worst opinion poll showing for a year, Mori put the Tories on 40 per cent, down five points, with Labour on 37 per cent, up seven, and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent, down two.
Party strategists said one poll was meaningless but if the finding is repeated in further polls there will be massive dismay among Tory MPs — and election fever.
Today's announcements by Mr Cameron were intended to seize the agenda and halt the decline.
They opened real differences between the two parties and points to the next election being dominated by Tory charges that Labour will unleash huge tax rises to fund runaway spending, and Labour allegations that the Conservatives would slash frontline public services such as the NHS.
Mr Brown quickly pointed out he was in step with other world leaders. “That means new help for families and businesses now,” he said.
“And the one group that seems to be standing against it, for purely dogmatic reasons, is the Conservative Party.”
Business leaders backed Mr Brown. The Institute of Directors said £20 billion should be slashed from tax bills through a 3p cut in income tax and a 4p reduction in corporation tax.
Axeing the promise to copy Labour spending also opens the prospect of shadow chancellor George Osborne being able to offer tax cuts at the election, to the delight of the party's Right wing.
Labour countered by promising to find far greater savings from Whitehall waste than previously promised, enabling them to claim any future Tory cuts would bite into mainline services.
But Mr Cameron insisted: “What once looked affordable in boom times is now clearly unsustainable. Unless we curb the growth of spending, taxes will need to rise in the future. Without such restraint, the borrowing bombshell will turn into a tax bombshell.”
There was no detail from the Tories about the size of their planned cuts. Mr Cameron said he was not proposing cuts but a slower rate of growth in spending, currently set to go up by 2.3 per cent in 2010/11, 1.7 per cent in 2011/12 and two per cent in 2012/13.
Mr Cameron said he would wait until after Monday's mini-budget to decide finally on whether to oppose the plans by Mr Brown and Chancellor Alistair Darling to give away about £15 billion to kickstart economic growth.
He said: “I don't believe we can afford it. I don't believe it will work. And I believe it means running risks that we should try to avoid.”
Britain was already borrowing too much and it would mean big tax rises to repay the debt in future, he said.
On the government side, sources confirmed that Mr Darling is strongly resisting pressure from No 10 to increase the size of the planned package of tax cuts.
Although both agree a stimulus is needed, Mr Brown believes that the Treasury forecasts are too down-beat and that a bigger giveaway could be afforded.
He argues that the impact of international action to boost the world's economies has not been fully grasped and the bounce back will be quicker and stronger as a result.
Both parties have had to change their central economic policies because of the credit crunch.
Reader views (49)
I'm with Delphine.
- Peter, Taunton, Somerset
Can we not just have a "none of the above" option on the ballot forms? I hate to have to waste my vote but I won't vote for any of the buffoons currently on offer.
- Bob, Cheam
"Recessions do not guarantee an election loss for an incumbent government. The Tories won in 1992 in the midst of recession and spiralling unemployment"
Indeed, and a key reason for the Tories' surprise win was that the public ultimately doubted Neil Kinnock's economic competence. It's a classic "better the devil you know" scenario that should make Tories deeply worried.
- Michael, London
Martin, George Osbourne is neither and Old Etonian nor a twit!
Surely the real point here is that Gordon Brown's poll ratings have improved of late, as he has tried to improve the lot of the UK taxpayer....after being responsible for getting us in this mess in the first place!
I do not believe for an instant that the average UK voter is as naieve as these polls would suggest and that the electorate would be swayed to vote at the the next election (whenever that is) for another Labour Government.
Finally, two quick questions:
1) PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE could someone explain how MR Mandelson is on our screens and in our papers AGAIN?....That's right, it's because Gordon Brown is "in charge".
2) Why has Gordon Brown and his party not pushed the ex-Prime Minister (Mr Tony Blair) to donate huge chunks of his recent earnings to charity and to injured armed forces personnel? Tony Blair sent Brits to war, against the will of the population; he chastised those individuals who tried to sell their stories of capture by the Iranians (to the newspapers), yet he is now making millions of pounds doing essentially the same thing and no-one does anything!
Ask those questions in one of these polls and you'll quickly see the truth about how the UK will vote in the next election. These polls give the British people too little credit. We have long memories and Labour will not win the next election.
- Londoner, London, England
I do not like the UK anymore if people have confidence in the horrible Crash Gordon mistakes!
- Georgie, Islington, London
What on earth could the Tories do if they got back in? Let's give Gordon Brown the chance to deal with this economic crisis that's affecting most industrialized countries. Brown is a decent, no-frills guy who seems to have the people as his main concern. Cameron has nothing to offer, only empty bombast and rhetoric, with a different economic policy every week. Let's sit tight for a while and see what Gordon Brown does.
- Robert Collins, Philadelphia, USA
Cameron and his public school chums lost the initiative when the economy went into crisis. Imagine publicly stating, if in power, they would not have re-capitalised the banks!!!! In all honesty I found it pretty hard to take, although for different reasons, but there really was little else they could do if the crisis was not to turn in to a collapse of the banking system. Well blow them says 'Mr and Ms life savings,' under the Tories I would have been wiped out. Not smart politically methinks!
From that point they committed error after political error, accumulating in Cameron's opportunistic and desperate warnings about future national debt and tax rises. That just seemed alarmist, party political, unpatriotic and undermining of Labour's tough decison-making in the interest of the nation.
Cameron has lost the initiative and has looked increasingly desperate to get it back. While Brown is the world leader, the steady hand on the UK tiler!
Why would anyone vote for a Tory Government in an economic downturn? Today's events just remind us all of the Tory economic and social incompetance of the 1980's and 1990's. Who would trust them again?
You know what the two parties remain me of, in terms of historical parallel? Labour seem like bold Rooseveltian new dealers, with big solutions for big problems. While the Tory counter-positions smack of the wholely inaquate, small-scale measures and free market illusions of Herbert Hoover! When history repeats itself ...
- Bill Coomber, London, UK
After 10 years as the worst Chancellor and now Prime Minister this country as ever had, people are being conned again by his promised tax cuts. Remember all his budgets contained hidden tax increases ie. 10p increase on the lowest paid workers. The only people benefiting from this government are the shirkers who have never worked in their lives, and we the hard working people of this country are paying for it.
- Irene Ellaway, barnet herts england
Cameron made several mistakes recently, chiefly backing his boy Osborne when he got caught partying with rich Russian oligarchs and asking for donations. Moreover flying to support failed aggressor Saakashvili during the Georgian war in summer does his image no good at e should have sacked Osborne and stay away from world affairs.
- George, London, UK
I think that most people will now be aware that Gormless Clown has put us in a very bad position from which to enter a recession, and that borrowing without limit is not the solution. This is especially true given that even he has acknowledged this to be the cause of the problem.
Only the naive would accept NuLiebour at their word and be blind to the fact that any tax cuts would only benefit NuLiebour's client state and, in any event, would only ver be a short-term bribe.
This poll result is down to confusion about the Tory position and will surely change once the rational majority have had a chance to properly consider their proposals.
- Keith Lonsdale, Doncaster
Tommy,
You deserve to live in Acton.
- Dave, Cornwall
"Sack Osbourne and get some people who know what they are doing" - and who do you recommend? Brooding Brown? Two-tone Darling?
- Srs, London
Well David Cameron and Boris Johnson are devils they don't care about the public never believe what they say.
- Andy, London
Cameron is useless. The last few months have brutally exposed how shallow he is. The same applies to Osborne, Hague, Duncan and the rest. Time to get rid of them.
- Paul, UK
We must not believe the fiction that our economic troubles are caused by world wide conditions. While they do contribute something, this country has been proved to be the least able to sustain a financial crisis, and so much of what is happening is a result of Gordon Browns policies when Chancellor. The voters of this country have allowed themselves to be bamboozled by nu-Labour for 11 years, the result is a demoralised country, unsure of itself, overrun by immigration, legal and illegal, which in itself is lead by this governments crazy welfare benefits( remember East Europeans claiming child benefit for children not even living here)the mockery of law and order made by the infamous Human Rights Act, the destruction of our education system, our health system, the fools in government have largely never had proper jobs (a point made by one of their own ministers), if they are stupid enough to vote this treacherous lot in again, because of a financial bribe, then they deserve all they get, and I, for one, will join the hundreds of thousands who have already left what will be a doomed country. Remember too, that any extravagant gestures made by Brown and Darling, will become the problem of the next government, should Labour lose the next election. On this basis, they can make whatever promises they like. Please, please, please,do not be fooled!!!!!
- Carver, nottingham uk
Lets face it, polls must be done during working hours. Therefore the only people likely to be at home are students, the unemployed, the severly mentally disabled or illigal immigrants. Labours voter base.
Try calling in at some offices or places of work generally and see what reaction you get.
- Jimbob, Kensington
Time to bring Ken Clarke back to front-line politics and smash this bunch of Brown fourth-raters.
- Tom, St. Albans
This Tory Party is showing enormous cracks in their unity and alarming weaknesses, especially in terms of experience and judgement
- Keith Price, Luton, England
Recessions do not guarantee an election loss for an incumbent government. The Tories won in 1992 in the midst of recession and spiralling unemployment, as did Labour in Australia in 1993. Fun to watch the "outraged from the Home Counties" emails pour in though..
- David, N10
I think i am a gifted clairvoyant . It's not surprising. Thank God the electorates are coming to know the young prentenders.
- Alex Lisinge, Putney London
I think that the result of the online poll might be more to do with Conservative Home being alerted to it's existence rather han any wish to be ruled by David and George. Funny they sound like Ladies Hairdressers. I hope the Tory Backbenchers show their real feelings tomorrow. It might stop Dave being quite so smug as usual.
- Alf Gove, ealing England
Is Brown Nick leeson desperatly betting the bank hoping somthing might come in on the 2:30 at Haydock???
- Julian Blah Blah, Lavendon UK
Jack, explain how borrowing money that you don't have, to spend on services that we don't need, moves the economy exactly? Let's think how this situation came about. Lots of people borrowing money they couldn't pay back. Sound familiar?
- Charlie, London
Hi there all. I am a 40% tax payer. Yippee I have got a job in another country where i pay 23% tax. Cant wait for the bill to come in for Browns big spend cos I wont be here to help pay for it all. Good luck all you Goverment employees Good luck all you 3 million on the sick. Good luck all you immigrants living in houses my hardworking family could never afford. Good luck all you poor dolts vote for Labour. You so deserve what your gonna get .
BYE......................
- Ron Emo, England till December
I remember the tories were once lead by a leader who said "The lady is not for turning."
Its now lead by one who turned so many times he can't work out which way he is meant to be going. He has more spin than a radio one DJ.
And remember when general elections approach the party in power normally builds up its support whatever party that is.
All it needs is for Boris not to deliver what people voted for him for and Team GB will have London in the bag!
(ps I suppose Dave will be getting flip-flops for christmas again..)
- Melvyn Windebank, Canvey Island, Essex
Even steven.... neither deserve to be elected, when and if we get an election soon. On the one hand complete incompetance on the other complete incompetance. They are both shameful and an insult and very damaging to a free society. Democracy has been given a dis-service by career minded, money grabbing opportunistic politicians. Where are the free voices? It seems the entire population has been lobotomised by a 24 hour diet of 'get me outta here' and 'big brother' drivel on TV and doesnt give a hoot about values or freedom or the truth.
- Colin Bond, London
There will be a lot of worried voters out there if the polls are correct. Start looking for a move abroad if you have the cash.
- Keith, shropshire
Brown is way preferable to Blair, if not quite such a conniving, machiavellian individual. As Blair managed to win three General Elections, perhaps these latest poll results shouldn't be so surprising. However the main factor at the next election will be the level of turnout, especially in the key marginals.
- Mikey, Tring,Herts,UK.
Now let's see the British press give Cameron the support he deserves for speaking honestly and for abandoning policies which cannot be sustained. If the Tories were to match the policies Brown is following they would, like him, be showing a reckless disregard for our country's very survival. Brown is delusional (in case there is still anyone left who has not noticed!). It's the job of the Opposition to speak the Truth even if it is not what people want to hear. What Brown is doing is the financial equivalent of giving someone heroin and telling them it is going to make their pain go away. Once they are hooked, they need more and more and are oblivious to the fact - evident to all around them - that they've entered on the path to their own destruction. In 12 months' time, it will be too late to say "no thanks". Face reality, back Cameron NOW and we just might have a chance of survival.
- Dolores, London, England
Support for the Nu/Old/HasBeenLabour?
Like lemmings on a day trip to the white cliffs of Dover, I reckon.
The worst part is that GB is desperate enough (or maybe he's always been dumb enough) to snatch at anything that even remotely sounds like support for his lacklustre incompetence. He might choose think it a 'mandate' from the proletariat for more of the same.
- Rogan, Irving
It's hardly a surprise. The Democrats under Clinton made it against the law to discriminate against people who wanted a mortgage and were on welfare, saying that was good enough proof of income, blocked investigations into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and when the sub-prime market crashed, it was the Democrats the people trusted to get the US out of the mess!
Brown handled the economy for all the years leading up to this disaster, and is now bribing the tax-payers with their own money - and they seem to think he is wonderful and want him to stay on as PM. It's why I chose to live abroad, with about 650,000 ex-pats who never want to go back to a country that continues to vote for idiots like Gordon Brown.
- Stephen Rothbart, Prague, Czech Republic
As I said Cameron was never told about the Tortoise and the Hare, he's been sucker punched. You Mr Cameron have let us all down. You've done nothing except sit back and wait while millions possibly 4 or 5 million have poured into England to live on benefits and vote Nu-Lying-Labour. Mac-Mugabe-Brown's one party state will bury you Mr Cameron, we the the people could do nothing to stop him. You could have done if you had got up of your P.R arse and acted like a leader and not a spiv.
- Mike, London
Robert El-Cid, I'm a thrifty and hard working which is exactly why I'd never vote for beanbag face cameron or any of his cronies. I'd rather subsidise a single mother than some self important git who thinks its perfectly sensible to have a Degas in the living room while paying the home help minimum wage.
- Nu, london
Perhaps Cameron could dump his smug, patronising persona at PMQ's tomorrow and ask questions which have not been designed y his right young researchers as Elephant Traps. It only makes him look like Grumpy McCain when he doesn't get an incriminating answer. Thatcher never admitted she was wrong about, Wstland, The Belgrano or the Poll Tax.
- Alan Walters, Uxbridge England
Jon, you must be very young or a bit slow. History will not look kindly on Gordon Brown. He has created a huge problem. He started believing he was cleverer than everyone else. The most dangerous words in economics are "This time it's different". He said it again and again and took the applause. He rode the wave of low commodity prices, and the 'China' effect to have the 2 luxuries of low inflation and low interest rates and he made a massive mess of it all. A monkey in a blindfold could have produced 10 years of growth in that sort of environment as long as he was prepared to instigate a debt bubble. Now the 'China effect' has bottomed out and commodities have risen. These external factors have turned against him and his de-regulated banks and he's trying like crazy to get his credibility back. No he is not charasmatic, but he isn't that clever either.
- Alex C, London
Martin's observation is correct. Cameron should tell the truth - as he perceives it - about the economy and every aspect of the current mess the UK is in. But then show us by his actions that he is doing something about putting right 11 years of foolish socialist policies. And again I agree with Martin, I am not sure his Eton background and general lack of nous are suitable qualifications for the hard graft ahead.
- Oliver Green, London, UK
Cameron shouldnt have turned away one of his star players from standing as a PPC.....
- Max, london
No one likes the teller of bad news even if it is true. Sack Osbourne and get some people who know what they are doing, not old Etonian twits.
- Martin, Norfolk
Look at your poll section
Do you want Gordon Brown as prime minister?
NO 77 %
Yes 23 %
It says a lot about Crash incompetent mindless Gordon.
- David, London
How worried should Cameron be?. Norman Tebbit was once quoted as saying "Opinion polls are not worth the paper they are written on, in my view, through the conference season. They don't settle down again until November."
- Damien Vaugh, Greenwich, London.
The Labour party are far more competent in running the economy than the Conservatives. Buying your way out of a downturn is the best solution to ensure a quick return to a prosperous economy. Come on Labour you can do it!
- Jack, Liverpool , UK
It seems people in this country like keeping their heads buried in the sand and hate facing the truth. If labour get in for one more term then it will go too prove what an x factor, I'm a celeb watching bunch of idiots people in the UK really are.
- Fly, London
Gordon Brown may not be a charismatic star but it is clear he is more than capable of taking control and showing other countries the lead at this difficult time of debt, an inherited as a legacy of worldwide freemarket greed. This is a time for substance over style, the other is a luxury which may come when we can afford it.
- Jon, London
Who will the next Tory Leader be after the next election is lost? Will they go for another pompous, smug Toff like Boris Johnson or will they go back to David Davis who lost the job by making one bad speech? Alternatively if memories of Mrs Thatcher have faded they could persuade Hague to stand again who despite his appearance is still younger than Prince Charles.
- Tommy Cockles, Acton England
Brown's garden path is just getting longer all the time - lets hope the thrifty and hardworking do NOT fall for his spin once again.
- Robert El-Cid,, Hull, East Yorks.,
Terrible! All you have to do here in this country is offer a tax reduction, and the punters will vote you in. Nothing else counts, not policy, not people, not civic pride. Just cash to buy more KFC meals, shell suits and holidays in Spain.
- Delphine, Oxford
David Cameron keeps on his front bench a vote-loser and sacked a vote-winner (David Davis). That alone speaks volumes for his lack of judgement. The Tories will soon be seeking a new leader, not just a new Chancellor.
- John, London
As the so called Conservative Party, has nothing to conserve any more. I think it should just fold up, as I find no difference between Labour, LibDems and Conservatives. I am looking for a positive political party, not a bunch of negatives.
- Richard Partridge, Ruislip Middx UK
Let us hope boom & bust Brown believes the poll and calls a General Election.
- Joe, London, UK
