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Over the past two months, says conventional wisdom, the way we feel about Gordon Brown has changed as seismically as the way we feel about the economy. The media think so. Labour thinks so. Many Tories seem to think so. But is it true?
There's some evidence that it is. Confidence in Labour's handling of the economy is rising. Dissatisfaction with Gordon, although still huge, is falling. Above all, the Government scored that sensational win in its only test with real voters, the Glenrothes by-election.
But the problem for Labour is that none of these things matters as much as the core number on UK voting intentions (even Glenrothes arguably represented Scotland's particular political circumstances, kicking an SNP incumbency).
And on voting intentions, Tory support has barely budged. The 11 polls published in October gave Dave's party an average share of 42.8 per cent. The 10 published in November show an average Tory share of 42.3 per cent.
This was a period when barely a day passed without Mr Brown - or, in Peter Mandelson's words, "Moses" - announcing something dramatic, attending some summit or generally being fêted for saving the world. But it doesn't seem to have saved the Government.
True, the average gap between Tories and Labour has fallen - from 11.6 per cent in the October polls, to 9.3 per cent in the November ones. Two recent polls have shown only three- and four-point Tory leads. But these got far more press attention than the majority, which continue to show a substantial Opposition advantage.
The key to the fluctuating Tory leads, as the admirable website politicalbetting.com points out, is not in fact any change in the party's own strength but the oscillation of the Liberal Democrats - who seem, when doing well, to take votes away from Labour.
In the poll showing the Tories only three ahead of Labour, the Lib-Dems were on a frankly implausible share of 12 per cent - far below what they would get in any election, since the publicity they receive during campaigns nearly always raises their showing. That augurs badly for the Government.
The actual story of the past few months is that there was indeed a step-change in Labour support at the time of its conference in September: the party pulled itself up from the mid-20s to the low 30s, and Tory leads of 20 or 24 points were halved. Since then, however, Labour's opinion poll recovery has, very broadly, stalled.
And there is now some early polling evidence that after its terrifying pre-Budget report, Labour may even have gone into reverse. Maybe the voters won't mind the theatrical soak-the-rich part of last week's package; but it does seem to be sinking in that there are also tax rises for far more modest earners - all for the sake of a small cut in VAT, and no apparent action on the real problem, credit. This just might be the moment when Gordon Brown lost the election.
Recent history shows that British leaders swept up into heroic world-leadership mode get themselves into trouble. Could this be Gordon's equivalent of Tony Blair's post-9/11 period? Blair travelled the globe, fêted by presidents; Blair made bold, reckless decisions, which failed to have the effects he hoped.
It is too early to know whether Gordon's War On The Rich will end as badly as Tony's War On Terror. And the Tories are still in difficulty. Their old "narrative", that Brown was a useless ditherer, has been destroyed and they still haven't got a new one. But something may have changed last week; Moses may not be leading his people to salvation after all.
Hillary is Obama's revenge
As Hillary Clinton takes over at the State Department, it's another historic breakthrough for America. Not just the first black man in the White House, but the first-ever android to become Secretary of State. It's clearly Obama's revenge on the rest of the world for being too fulsome about him. She will, of course, be terrible — and Bill will be worse. It is surely asking for trouble, Hillary, to take a job that keeps you away from home a lot.
It's all in the name Mumbai
After the tragic attacks on Bombay, it might seem trivial to complain that most of the foreign media call the city Mumbai. That is, after all, its official name. But though we may think we're being right-on by dropping the old Portugese title, many Indians would disagree. As Bombay's best contemporary chronicler, the Gujurati writer Suketu Mehta, points out, the Hindu-supremacist Maharashtra state government changed the name as part of its campaign to make Bombay a Hindu, or more specifically, Maharashtran city: a complete denial of its true identity as India's most multicultural (and also most Westernised) place. That sort of sectarianism, from the Muslim side, almost certainly underlies last week's horror. So names are important; and I, for one, will be sticking with Mehta, with my Indian friends, and with Bombay.
* Can the head of any organisation ever have screwed up quite so badly, so quickly, as did Paul Stephenson, the acting Met commissioner, on his first day? Even Sir Ian Blair took a few months to implode — and for sheer outrageousness, the Damian Green affair exceeds even Sir Ian's worst political blunders. Major change, imposed from the outside, is clearly needed at the Met. Stephenson's hopes for the top job must now be dead on arrival.
Reader views (8)
One indication that things may be closer than you think is the way David Camoron has stopped being so greasy and smug and has turned into a UK version of John McCain spending his whole time behaving like a pompous bore. Previously he behaved like a typical Old Etonian Millionaire, born with a silver spoon in his mouth, who has neer had to work for anything.
- Tommy Cockles, Acton England, 03/12/2008 12:19
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Like Brown was ever going to win the next General Election anyway! The man is more unpopular than Herpes.
- Triffidqueen, Desk in London, 03/12/2008 09:24
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A "soaking" of 5p in the pound for those who earn more than £150,000 per year.
Hardly dripping wet are they?
- Notverywet, London, England, 02/12/2008 00:31
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To describe Hilary Clinton as "the first-ever android to become Secretary of State." is intemperate, distasteful and even abusive. Remember she has huge constituency both as a Senator and Presidential Candidate. A rather stronger democratic base than a meretricious journalist with a bolt through his neck
- Peter Murphy, London, 01/12/2008 22:01
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What a true pleasure it is to see a comment in the Evening Standard that reflects what most Bombayites think about the name of our great city.
Thank you Mr. Gilligan. We appreciate using the name Bombay from the bottom of our hearts. Maybe the Evening Standard will do what the Times does, and use Bombay as the official name of the city?
- Dina, London, Bombay, 01/12/2008 21:02
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The Prime Minister should now start to rescue the pound from the sullied hands of the currency speclulators!
- Arthur Lincoln, arthur.lincoln, 01/12/2008 15:56
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He will bottle it again. It has been clear now for all decent people that Crash Gordon is not good for this country, and probably created the worst economic situation this country has ever faced...
- Georgie, Islington, London, 01/12/2008 14:49
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Andrew.
The opinion polls may well have closed somewhat during the usual fluctuations of the past few months, but they have surely not reduced to the grotesquely perverse successive 6% and 3% gaps as recently measured by the weird pollsters of The Times.
What sinister Republican agenda is Murdoch scheming now?
Presumably he too will be pushing for the crucifiction of our pound sterling on the Euro cross.
- Dave, cumbria, 01/12/2008 12:31
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