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300,000 jobs will be axed by next Easter, say economists
Nicholas Cecil, Chief Political Correspondent29 Dec 2008
MORE than 3,300 jobs a day will be lost in a redundancies bloodbath in the New Year, economists predicted today.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development issued the dire forecast which could see unemployment soar above three million by 2010.
The managers' organisation predicts that 300,000 jobs will go in the first three months of 2009, with another 300,000 by the end of the year - and even more if interest rate cuts and the Government's multi-billion fiscal stimulus fail to prop up the economy.
"We are going to see a very bleak period between New Year and Easter," the Institute's chief economist John Philpott told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "A lot of employers have been waiting for the turn of the year before making redundancy announcements."
The financial, retail and manufacturing sectors were particularly vulnerable but all parts of the economy would be hit, he added.
Mr Philpott predicted that personnel departments would "feel more like ER or Casualty" as swathes of jobs are axed.
He added that unemployment, now at 1.86 million, could "easily" rise above three million by 2010.
A separate report found 165,000 private-sector jobs were lost from 1 November to 21 December.
David Frost, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, believes salaries could also be cut or frozen and called for the minimum wage not to rise.
Richard Lambert, director general of the CBI, called for major developments in industrial policy to counter the downturn.
Gordon Brown is seeking to steel Britain for the downturn by drumming up a Blitz spirit. "The scale of the challenges we face is matched by the strength of my optimism," he is due to say in his New Year's message.
However, a Financial Times poll found most people do not believe government forecasts that the recession will end in the second half of next year.
Reader views (7)
broon always said that it is a worldwide recession.Can these highly intelligent economists explain why the euro has not been affected.
- John, benidorm,spain, 30/12/2008 08:16
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Presumably the only growth area for jobs will be in the Labour PR machine.
- Steve, Hereford, 29/12/2008 22:58
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Frankly it would help immensely if they all just shut up about it.
This sort of thing further undermines confidence and becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
Thanks a bunch.
- Thalia, london UK, 29/12/2008 16:57
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same economist who failed to predict doom
- Prasad, SIDCUP, 29/12/2008 15:26
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London will be worst hit as the city financial powerhouse drove the boom so its most likely to bear the full brunt of the downturn.
Sarbanes-Oxley was was the main reason the UK even had a booming financial sector anyway but even the lure of that is worthless in a down cycle. Labour cannot take any credit for it but they certainly have!!! The US congress when passing this law triggered major investment in the City and the timezone helped with Euro & Middle Eastern M&A.
Best case scenario is that in 18-24 months GDP will turn positive again.
- P, London, England, 29/12/2008 14:57
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What goes down by itself can also recover by itself.
I am unimpressed by those who having suppported the previous market profess now to understand the current model.
- Geoff Herbert, Lara, Australia, 29/12/2008 13:58
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Shame Crash Gordon has no more money in the kitty. Oh oh when is Nu Labor leaving with their disastrous economics??!
- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London, 29/12/2008 12:22
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