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Gordon Brown
Blind spot: Gordon Brown

It could be two years before we see recovery, says City expert

Paul Waugh, Deputy Political Editor
22.01.09

GORDON BROWN faced a fresh attack over his handling of the economy today as the City watchdog claimed the recession could last for up to two years.

Financial Services Authority chairman Lord Turner made the prediction as he suggested Mr Brown had failed to spot that Labour's housing and credit boom was "fraught with systemic risk" .

The Tories seized on Lord Turner's remarks, appearing to contrast them with Chancellor Alistair Darling's projection that the economy would recover by the end of this year. In his pre-Budget report in November, Mr Darling claimed positive growth would return by 2010.

Many ministers assume the forecast will have to be revised in the spring Budget following a raft of bad news on mortgages, unemployment and banking. Today Lord Turner told BBC Radio 4: "I do not know whether in three months' time or six months' time we are going to be able to use words like 'green shoots' without everybody thinking, 'What an absurd thing to say'.

"But I do think that within two years, say, we will clearly be on an up path." Tomorrow, Britain is expected to be officially declared in recession when figures reveal a second successive quarter of negative growth.

Speaking last night at the Economist City Lecture, Lord Turner suggested that Mr Brown, along with many others, had overlooked the downside of complicated financial instruments ultimately based on bad loans.

He conceded the watchdog blundered over collapsed bank Northern Rock. But he added: "The far bigger failure - shared by bankers, regulators, central banks, finance ministers and academics across the world - was the failure to identify that the whole system was fraught with market-wide, systemic risk.

"The key problem was not that the supervision of Northern Rock was insufficient, but that we failed to piece together the jigsaw puzzle of a large UK current account deficit; rapid credit extension and house-price rises; the purchase of UK mortgage-backed securities by institutions in the US performing a new form of maturity transformation; and the potential for irrational exuberance in the market price of credit."

Shadow chief secretary to the treasury Philip Hammond said: "With Ministers deluding themselves that they can see "green shoots", Lord Turner's dose of common sense is a welcome reality check." And Tory leader David Cameron warned "the money would run out" if the country continued to spend and borrow.

He added: "This recession doesn't vindicate big government; it hammers the final nail in its coffin."

Meanwhile, a rift was growing between the Government and the FSA, with Chancellor Alistair Darling furious the watchdog gave him only an hour's notice on Friday that the ban on short-selling was to be lifted.

Short-selling has received some of the blame for this week's plunge in bank stocks. Mr Darling was said to have strongly advised the FSA not to make the move so soon, but officials feared legal action from hedge funds.

Reader views (48)

 Add your view

I have my money on 10 years at least.

- Albert Hall, hove england

Only 2 years - you are dreaming? Think 8 to 10.

- Dave Davies, Basingstoke

Green shoots are already rotten.

- Georgie, Islington, London

The Nu Labor house of cards is falling apart. It was not possible to raise more taxes without a crash. Crash Gordon blames America but it is clear that America will be out of recession soon and they are in a strong situation, whereas Britain now will enter the depression. A long time cut in economic growth and a major loss of finances here.

- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London

i guess we are back to a country run by a labour government we all know and love from back in the 1970's. when can we get rid of them for good and i bet alistair darling is finding the posioned chalsis he has been handed very heavy.
the sooner we can get control of this country again the better, maybe we should have all the parties join together to get us through this mess before it turns into something from a john steinbeck novel.

- Jd, london

Brown - go now, you know the games up.
Cameron - grow some balls, give us some huge, obvious reason to vote for you and stop being so wet.

Us the voters? When the time comes, vote against your local party whatever your convictions. They are all culpable. Aegean stables time.

- Ged, Ramsgate, Kent

the bankers told us that immigration was good, they were lining their pockets with unreal profits. they told us immigration was needed to keep inflation low so the housing market bubble and bankers bonuses could keep rolling . what a fraud that was. this country needs to return to export lead growth . this is possible the germans are the worlds greatest exporters . trades surpluses and not deficits then we would not be faced with a run on the pound.

- John Lamb, dagenham

Heavens above, the arrogance of Lord Turner, SFA Chairman, is beyond belief. The man heads a completely useless organisation which failed and continues to fail in all its remits. Surely, he has to assume his share of responsibility in the debacle in which we find ourselves now. He is ill-placed to pontificate and try and save his neck by blaming others. Bit fed up with this recurrent theme, nothing to do with me gov it's all down to... Usually people will fill this blank according to whether they vote Labour or Conservative. Utterly useless of course so I have decided it's all down to my cat. Might as well.

- Daniel, London

What is interesting about the various comments about the collapse of the banking system is the lack of criticism of their auditors.
Auditors are supposed to safeguard the interests of the shareholders and give a certificate to the effect that the accounts show a true and fair view of the company's affairs.
This is clearly not the case in Northern Rock,B&B and RBS

- Watson, London UK

Only two years? It'll be much much longer than that

- Chuck Unsworth, London UK

When I retired in 1997 my Staff Association sent me a financial adviser to give me advice. His first piece was "did I have credit cards? Yes, then cut them up. Do not get into debt. I kept a couple of carfd but pay them off every month but now of course I am having to pay off all the others who just could not resist the Banks siren calls.
Although I now live in Spain I am taxed in the UK and do have a vote. It will not be going to Labour and the Tories better brush their act up.

- Ayliff Mcnab, Spain

Alex Lisinge, Putney - you clearly want to do your utmost to protect dear Gordon. But I'm afraid that it's simply not good enough to try and put all the blame on the FSA. As Lord Turner said, the FSA (and other regulators) were part of the problem. However, it was gordon (as Chancellor) who set the ground rules for the economy. It was gordon who ignored all the signs that the credit & housing boom was getting out of hand and so failed to change the rules to prevent this disaster. He cannot be allowed to duck out of this one. And whilst we're on about culpability, let's not forget Tony Blair's part in the last 10 years. He must certainly never be given any sort of honour - although I bet gordon tries to do so in his parting honours list!!

- Malcolm, London, England

Brown could not see a boom if it hit him on the nose. He created it by changing the inflation measure to exclude housing. His CPI was too low so he 'looked' good. But it was a lie. Credit was booming unchecked as interest rates were set low. As house prices boomed 30% pa Brown kept pleating 'I ended Boom and Bust'. A complete reverse of what he did in fact.

Brown has no financial or economic knowledge. He can tax unseen, especially pensions. And he can borrow like his mate Fred the Shred. Both wrecked lives by their insane action in borrowing and spending.

Brown has ruined Scotland's reputation. He left the UK dependent on risky overseas suppliers of credit, and owing huge loans.

He has done the same with UK energy, totally depending on risky overseas suppliers. France is 80% self sufficient. The UK has Gormless Gordon, who thinks he 'saved the world', while he lead the UK into dependence on risky sources of money and energy.

Brown will be seen as the worst Chancellor and PM for 100 years, who squandered a 'Golden Economy'.

- Jimmy Scot, charlton

Gordon Brown was in charge of regulation, boasted of how well his light touch approach worked and encouraged risk taking.
In fact, like the heads of the banks he had no idea what was going on at the front line.
Were these banks solvent ? If they were not, then their boards were allowing them to trade illegally.
What happens if the US starts investigating the solvency of subsidiaries of our banks and finds malpractice ?
Will we be handing over some of our senior financial figures to face US courts ?

- John J, Edinburgh, Scotland

Lord Turner could have summarised his long explanation by simply saying 'We failed to spot that Northern Rock was wholely reliant on borrowing and was oblivious to the risk that property prices can go down as well as up'. As for Mr Brown it appears the he has had one eye on his career and the other on the economy,unfortunately.......

- Jeremiah, London

Alex, the PM is responsible for the Financial Service Authority. I agree the FSA was/is pathetic and useless, but part of Brown & Co's job was to keep an eye on its activities.

- Phil Jones, London UK

Every day brings a new low. Unbelievable!!! Now he is pleading ignorance. This really does underline how foolish and out of touch with reality this man is. Anyone with a basic knowledge of economics knew that the level of borrowing (unchecked and encouraged by him) was totally unsustainable. Whilst this is a global crisis, we are in a far worse position than most countries to deal with this disaster. It’s going to be a long hard road, and much more so with the ex-chancellor / unelected prime minister in charge.

- Extremely Worried, UK

Mike, London

I am not condoning the Labour Party which, as the governing party, must shoulder collective responsibility for neither standing up to the autocracy of Bliar, nor the bullying of Brown as Chancellor, when he singurlarly began staccking up off balance sheet debt via the ludicrous PFI deals he orchestrated from Number 11.

But to suggest this s a problem due to the economic ignorance or lack of intellect thereof, is frankly laughable.

This is about a party that sold its soul to cosy up with the very business leaders who cajolled and bullied their way to enormous remuneration on the back of debt driven asset price bubbles, and often subsidised directly and indirectly by the taxpayer without the taxpayers consent.

The marginalised Labour Party, cast out into the wilderness by Blair's business friendly 'New' Labour movement have been actively calling for change, but never had the necessary support within the House of Commons to bring it to the fore ! Why ? Because there was no way Cameron's Tories would want to rock the boat.

If you or anyone think that change is forthcoming under a Government headed by David Cameron and George Osborne, think again. The Tories, just like New Labour, are even deeper in the pockets of big business (that has shrunk due to their own incompetance)

- John Bloomfield, Twickenham

It's so simple - and obviously anyone can become Chancellor as there is no expertise involved - the reason people aren't spending is because their credit cards are maxed out, so no matter what is done to revitalise the economy, until these credit card rates come down and people can start paying off nothing will happen - and noone will spend. How can people save 20%+ to get a mortgage?

- Beverly, London

this evil man let me borrow excessively and leverage myself up to the hilt...I can never forgive him, does he not realise that we are all idiots and cannot make our own decisions...

Please Govt tell me what to do.....

- Martin_Clerkenwell, london

Unless Lord Turner was saying these things two, three or four years ago - and I don't remember that he was - he's not exactly parading his expertise by saying now what any fool could have seen then. Yes, they all failed: so why are they still in their jobs?
Politicians and financiers were both benefiting from a society hooked on the drug of easy debt: it wasn't that they didn't know, but the first to proclaim the emperor's lack of clothes would have been blamed for causing the resulting crash. The current cold turkey process will only be prolonged, rather than shortened, by having such a false low interest rate; it's a mistake as big as the protectionism that deepened the 1930's slump.
All that has happened up till now was foreseeable by any detached observer several years ago; what happens now, God only knows, except that those entities with cash, whether companies or countries, will hoover up the fire-sale assets.The only consolation is that the large countries with poor (and thus disposable) populations have no clear incentive to go to war: Russia and China both have, or fear, declining populations, and there's no immediate pressure on natural resources. China should for a generation be able to buy itself the resource security that Japan made a policy decision to grab by force a hundred years ago, and Russia's resource strength is something we should be grateful for, as a brake on aggression: there's no point in attacking your customers.

- Mdj, Leyton, e10 london

It is so sad to know people are still ignorant at the dawn of a millinium. Why blame the PM when we know the Financial Service Authority is absolutely responsible for this mess.

- Alex Lisinge, Putney London

Sadly for us, he , like Blair, started believing in their own press. Now the rest of us have to pay for it.

- Chris, Woking. UK

Brown was telling us that it was a period of extended stability and any evidence to the contrary that it was a boom was not acceptable because it did not fit his narrative. His trouble is that the boom turned to bust before he could win an election - no doubt he was calculating that he'd get away with it and then have lovely fun taxing those that he and his party hate when the bust materialised AFTER his election win. I bet he wishes he took the risk in Autumn 2007.

- Michael, london

To employ an American expression, "hindsight is 20/20". I have records of letters I, not only sent, but had printed, from 2004, in various newspapers, stating that history will record Brown as the worst Chancellor this country has had in the past 100 years. He totally ignored the warnings being sent out as long ago as 2004 that Collateral Debt Obligations (CDOs) were an enormous threat to the stability of the world financial system. Brown's spurious , oft repeated statement, that this problem started in the USA should not be allowed to gain traction, since there are many good UK banks that shunned the opportunity to participate in trying to generate profits from bits of paper solely priced by computers.
It beggars belief that both the FSA and the Treasury did not properly employ their massive research departments and consequently could not see the writing on the wall.
But, since "macAvity the cat" Brown always ran to the hills when a problem arose (tax credits ?), he just was'nt there when these warnings were issued.

- Bingham Macnamara, lymington, hampshire

The reason he allowed the credit boom was to cover the huge tax rises he was placing on people. Everyone maintained their standard of living by borrowing. The tax take per annum has gone up massively. When you factor in council tax and all the stealth taxes it runs into 1000's per person per year. No wonder we borrowed and he let it happen - we wouldnt have stomached the tax hikes otherwise. Now its come home to roost and we will eventually pay it all back in 20 years time.

I really could shake this man.

- Andy, St Ives, Cambs

Sensible people saw the bubble growing, the debts accumlating the public sector getting oversized and overpaid. Brown knew but to call a halt meant risking votes from his clent state, the admittance that there was no economic miracle and the demon bust still lurked. Browm values staying in power more than prudence, honour and the welfare of the UK.

- Paul S., Edinburgh, UK

How guessed right ?

After the event we are all experts.

Some of us are well placed and therefore feel that we are in a postion to hammer everybody else despite gaining through the back door, shares pensions etc

The reality is that eveyone hoped it would continue, unfortunately it did not and the fingerpointing has started.

- Harry, London

It shows he should resign. He would not leave in shame it is just that someone is needed to come in to give a fresh start.

- Mike, London

What a useless Chancellor what a useless (un-elected) PM.

- Steveo, London

It was obvious by about 2003 that the credit fuelled boom was spiralling out of control and that house prices were becoming completely unrealistic but the government never applied the brakes. The average Labour MP has a degree in a subject like sociology or womens studies or comes from a working class trade-union background. As such the vast majority of them have no knowledge of economics and no experience in the world of business. Let's hope and pray that this recession is the end of the government - and hopefully the Labour party.

- Mike, London UK

A Saying that I heard ....."Empty minds vote Labour in,Empty wallets vote Labour out"........Some things never change.

- Nigel, wimbledon

Can this guy not be indited?? At least he should be deposed now. I mean that he is not going himself and he does not want an election so... This was impossible not to have known nobody is that stupid.

- Georgie, Islington, London

He really would be very ignorant if he would have failed to spot the risks. I mean, I moved to the UK 6 years ago and have been wondering all the time how long this housing and credit boom will last before it will explodes without big knowledge of economics. Of course Brown & Co new about the risks, all else to claim is absolute nonsense. But it was very convenient for them as electorate that feel rich guaranteed the best elections and support. Politics always works this way: feed people and keep them happy, this is what brings the votes. Not change and unpopular dedissions.

- Michael, London

People posting to this website saw this coming as far back as June 2007. Unfortunately, our unelected PM neither listens nor cares about the opinions of his electorate.

- Nobby Clark, Perth, Scotland

All Labour Governments fall with their record on running the economy.
This particular New Labour fly though has been hard to swot. Perhaps after eleven years of appalling spin, prattle and economic implosion-we can now hope for the their utter obliteration.

- William Grierson, Kimpton-UK

Credit has been way too easy to get for nearly all of us for the last 30 years - which is when I got given a cheque guarantee card just for becomng a penniless student. Most of us have supped at the trough, without a protest at the easy credit we were taking, and now it's payback time. Don't really see that Brown is anymore guilty than any other PM in the last 30 years in this respect - or indeed any of us who benefited from easy credit in the past.

- Steve, london

It's not that Gordon didn't identify there was systemic risk. He did know, but he was more concerned with the political advantages of ever increasing public spending to buy votes. And the Great British public lapped it up and lined up in the polling booths.

- Matt, Herts, UK

If Brown failed to spot the dangers of a Housing and Credit boom he is an IDIOT. Is he an idiot ? Maybe..or is is that his policies are just fundamentally flawed. Yes it's that. He is an idiot. How can you not see that when it costs way more for the average family than 3.5-4 times earnings to buy a house that this is not sustainable..it really is that simple.

- Michael, Switzerland

"The key problem was not that the supervision of Northern Rock was insufficient, but that we failed to piece together the jigsaw puzzle of a large UK current account deficit, rapid credit extension and house price rises, the purchase of UK mortgage-backed securities by institutions in the US performing a new form of maturity transformation, and the potential for irrational exuberance in the market price of credit."

They're not very bright then, are they?

- Michael, Manchester

Brown doesn't have a clue. He pretends to be a financial genius but in reality my cat knows more. Even with my limited knowledge I knew the dangers of cheap credit, one being rising asset prices leading to unsustainable bubbles. Oh well at least brown has kept one of this promises, to get rid of the boom and bust, its just now all bust. It suited brown, while everybody was so preoccupied with daily rises in house prices he had his hands in our pocket robbing us blind and nobody noticed.

- Chris Smith, Rochester

A lot of people have got themselves into debt, especially by over-committing themselves on mortgage repayments. They then borrowed money on credit cards, loans, etc in order to keep their heads above water. Now that house prices have dropped to a more realistic price, a lot of home owners are whinging, and people who want to get on the property ladder can't because either they cannot get a mortgage or each time they try the amount of deposit required goes up. Now Gordo has reduced interest on savings, the most prudent amoungst us who never buy things until we can afford them might as well take our money out as the interest being made on savings is negligable. The problem now is that if everyone did likewise, it will mean that mortgages will be even more difficult to obtain mortgages and loans because the money actually comes from the savers. No-one saving, no money. So the prudent people are now being penalised because of the irresponsible ones. Banks should have been more careful to whom they loaned money to, rather than just give loans to all and sundry, even those who had no way of paying it back. If all Banks becomes the property of the Government (the Taxpayer), then does anyone know of anything Government owned in this country that makes a profit? Maybe this recession will teach those who over-commit a lesson. That doesn't help people who have lost their jobs, or pensioners who rely on interest on savings in order to help pay their bills.

- Sue, Orpington, Kent

Yes, Lord Turner, you are right, but equally the FSA might as well have not existed. It has been absolutely useless.

- Alex C, London

This so called Prudent Gordon is pure theory only. Abolishing Pension fund tax credits causing pension chaos, sold gold at rock bottom price, allowing 100+ per cent mortgages, gambling with tax payers money on bank rescues with no bottom visible. He is compared to a Fund manager risking clients' money while getting a fat salary and pension. WHAT DID HE DO RIGHT??? IN HIS TIMES AS CHANCELLOR AND PM THAT VOTERS CAN CLAIM AS BENEFICIAL??

- Hello Kitty, Middx, UK

What Lord Turner fail to say was the bankers didn't care what was going on whilst big bonuses were being paid and a guaranteed pension was on the cards, same with financial authorities.

- Mike,, London

TIF I had placed the economy in the hands of a two year old they would have done a better job.

- Fly, london

Asleep at the wheel would be a gross understatement of the calamity this man, Brown, has wrought on our country. Did he not notice 125% mortgages and a doubling in house prices from 2002 to 2007 ? Or was in too busy squabbling with Tony Blair and pandering to his billionaire Labour donor friends in the City. Brown should be hounded out of office.

- Neil, London

Surely this whole mess can be laid at the feet of the FSA for not doing its job of regulating and ensuring mechanisms were in place to prevent banks being able to fall £45bn in debt with no more than a few office chairs as hard financial assets. I don't see this joker offering any sought of apology.

- Ag, The Village of London


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