Tonight:
5°c
So, we've been told, officially, what we've known for ages, that Britain is in recession.
The news comes at the end of a week in which we've seen yet more banking woes, further job losses and a dismissal of our chances of recovery from US investment guru, Jim Rogers.
Before you jump, consider the following. A good major business hasn't gone down yet. There's been no failure that has caused me to pull up short — all the collapses that dominated the news are predictable. They were in God's waiting room anyway — fewer customers and a tightening of credit is all it took to send them under.
Travel around and some areas of the country seem far less affected than others. And Bernard Lewis, the founder of River Island, says today: “I went into the malls last Saturday and they were busy — not just us. You can go around the shops and think — what recession? There is simply no evidence of it.”
In property, the number of would-be buyers registering with estate agents has risen to its highest since 2006. In the US, there are stirrings of housing on the move again.
But before I do a Baroness Vadera and hail the arrival of green shoots (since the minister uttered her words and was ridiculed, the order has gone out across Whitehall to keep quiet), it may prove to be illusory. Certainly, in the South-East, the impact of the shattered City continues to be felt. And there are those who think we're another Iceland in the making. Among them, Rogers.
His view that we're too reliant on North Sea oil is wrong — as Royal Bank of Scotland points out, we've been running an oil deficit for years, well before the last drop from the North Sea expires. It's not a big deal.
Likewise, his claim that we have nothing to sell is also misleading. UK exports, RBS reports again, reached almost 30 per cent of GDP in 2006-07. The City, upon which attention is focused, is not as vital as is commonly supposed.
Given a bust bank can find reasons to be cheerful says it all. Yes, we're in recession but it won't last forever. When it does, we may just emerge stronger and certainly wiser.
I promise I didn't write this with my fingers crossed. There is cause for optimism, there is…
Reader views (8)
Sarah, London - keep faith, I too was made redundant last year and started my new job just before Christmas. It felt very grim until I started work again. But it's like the recruitment agency said, there's stuff going on out there so focus on that rather than the news otherwise you'll end up jumping out of a window...
- zady, London, 24/01/2009 00:29
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Like many I was made redundant in December and despite my best efforts it's tough out there. After many months of reporting doom and gloom that the recession is coming and now that it's official I think it's about time we read more positive things on how we are going to overcome it and get through it, this in turn would begin to build up consumer confidence.
- Sarah, London, 23/01/2009 18:41
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Val Daniels
Please wake up and smell the coffee before spouting a political broadcast on behalf of the incompetant party. This recession may have been triggered by the banking mess in the USA but it is fully home grown and can be laid at McClowns door.
Anyone with even half a brain will not be voting Labour at the next election despite your best efforts.
- Nick, Cheltenham, ex of Hornsey, 23/01/2009 18:41
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My Amazon Marketplace sales have very significantly increased in recent weeks - which suggests that people seem to prefer "slightly used but cheaper" to "brand new" rather than giving up spending outright.
- Michael, London, 23/01/2009 16:57
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Anyone would think we haven't been here before, we have, twice, and both times under the Tories. The difference this time is that this is not a home-grown recession, caused by inflation or some other domestic reason. This recession was caused, primarily, by US banks selling mortgages to people they knew would be unable to repay them. Those toxic loans were parcelled and sold to banks all over the world who were looking to make a fast profit, and we are all reaping the whirlwind. Excessive public borrowing, again serviced by the banks has not helped. Government spending, ie every school rebuilt or refurbished, new hospitals, increased benefits for pensioners and the disabled, increased child care provision, has obviously added to the indebtedness. However, we have unemployment now at 1.92m out of a population of 65m. If you look at the 500,000 unfilled vacancies, there is work for a large number of those people. Here in Spain unemployment is 16% and rising. The UK is better placed than most countries to emerge from this recession stronger and wiser. Stop whining out there, nobody died, we just need to knuckle down and get on with it and, unlike David Cameron, stop talking down the economy. I would rather rely on Gordon Brown's expertise than that of a man who was Norman Lamont's adviser during the ERM debacle. This time next year, when we see the green shoots of recovery, and confidence returns, we'll be wondering what all the fuss was about.
- Val Daniels, Mijas Costa, Spain, 23/01/2009 16:42
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I just can't help thinking that for certain folk--the economic downturn is a most convenient way of allowing them to complain as much or more than what they would normally do about all, everyone and everything. Am I alone here?
- William Grierson, Kimpton-UK, 23/01/2009 16:24
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Sorry, did I miss something? What exactly are we supposed to be optimistic about? "UK exports reached almost 30 percent of GDP in 2006-07"??? Oh well, that's alright then.
- Chris, London, 23/01/2009 16:17
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Could this be the voice that cries in the wilderness ?
I certainly hope so as we have all been bogged down with media hype with doom and gloom with, perhaps, people saying "is this the end of the World"?
- Arthur Lincoln, Roeselare? Belgium, 23/01/2009 15:29
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