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The Prime Minister did not mention yesterday's dire IMF prediction for the UK economy when he announced new economic rescue measures today, but its forecast of a 2.8 per cent shrinkage in the economy this year - the deepest recession for any major economy - was the inescapable backdrop. Mr Brown promised to lift restrictions on council house building, and release £100 million for local authorities to use in countering the recession - modest measures, especially given the scale of the crisis in the construction industry.
In addition, the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggested yesterday that government debt would not return to normal levels for 20 years, even on the basis of extra spending announced so far. Unsurprisingly, in an interview with the New Statesman today, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, seemed to rule out any possibility of an early election. There is little prospect of the economy recovering by even a 2010 election. At the very least, forecasts such as yesterday's suggest that some prized spending commitments such as halving child poverty by 2010 will have to be put on hold.
Meanwhile, in the US, Barack Obama's rescue plan is more ambitious: he has got his $819 billion economic rescue package over its first hurdle, the House of Representatives. Yet it did not attract a single Republican vote: whatever else, this package of public works, increases in benefits and tax cuts does not mark a departure from the old partisan politics. Republicans would like far more to be spent on tax cuts. This is a gamble for very high stakes, with no guarantee of success. But it marks an unambiguously interventionist approach.
Mr Darling admitted in his interview that "as we get through this, it is important to know that from here, in early January, we are going to see a lot of downsides". We already have. Though some parts of the retail sector are actually taking on more staff, the likelihood is that unemployment will get worse. The upshot will have to be a more realistic Treasury forecast than we had last autumn. For now, we can only hope that interventionism at home and across the Atlantic works as intended.
BNP on the beat
A METROPOLITAN Police officer has returned to the beat, having been suspended for three months after his name appeared on a leaked list of members of the British National Party. The Met says an investigation did not produce any evidence of membership to justify sacking the police constable. However, the affair provides an early challenge for the leadership of the new Commissioner, Sir Paul Stephenson. Certainly, he may have to provide more concrete details about the investigation's findings to justify the officer returning to the beat.
Membership of the BNP and other far-Right groups is illegal for police officers. Similarly, officers can be dismissed for any extra-curricular activity that brings the force into disrepute - that is, "likely to interfere with the impartial discharge of their police duties" - no matter how well they may behave at work. Given the necessity for police officers to enjoy the confidence of all members of the community, the proscription of BNP membership is justified. Police officers have to work with colleagues as well as members of the public from ethnic minorities; that precludes membership of a racist organisation. Sir Paul should make that clear.
Double-helix date
ADULTS-ONLY "Lates" evenings at the Science Museum are intended to be a means for grown-ups to engage with scientific principles in an easily accessible way. But last night's Japanese-themed event shows that the Lates have lively potential as singles evenings. The Museum deserves credit for broadening its appeal - and for adding to the sum of the capital's social possibilities.
