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Memo that told Blair aides Saddam Hussein posed no imminent threat
Paul Waugh12 Mar 2009
Intelligence experts explicitly warned Tony Blair's aides that Britain was not in "imminent danger of attack" from Saddam Hussein, a confidential memo revealed today.
The row over claims that the Government "spun" its way into war with Iraq is likely to be reignited after the release of the document by the Cabinet Office.
The memo, released after a long-running Freedom of Information battle, shows Mr Blair's officials knew seven years ago that the threat from Saddam was not immediate.
Despite the warning, the Government's dossier on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction included a claim that Baghdad was ready to launch an attack within "45 minutes".
Lord Hutton cleared the Government in 2004 of the charge that it tried to manipulate intelligence to pave the way for war.
But today Whitehall released a memo from former Cabinet Office defence expert Desmond Bowen, who later won promotion to policy director at the Ministry of Defence, which shows he disagreed Saddam posed an immediate threat.
The September 2002 memo, written to then Joint Intelligence Committee chairman John Scarlett and copied to Alastair Campbell, provides comments on an early draft of the government dossier on Iraq.
Mr Bowen wrote: "The question which we have to have in the back of our mind is 'why now?' I think we have moved away from promoting the idea that we are in imminent danger of attack and therefore intend to act in a pre-emptive self defence."
Another email published today underlines ministers' focus on how to get their message across in the media.
A memo from then Foreign Secretary Jack Straw's office stresses the dossier had to be shown on the Sky News video "wall".
The email from Mr Straw's private secretary Mark Sedwill suggests the dossier needed a "very simple table".
Mr Sedwill wrote: "This should be brief enough to get onto the Sky wall ie no more than 5 bullets."
Another email, apparently from an intelligence official, says a part of the dossier on chemical and biological weapons would be "likely to give a misleading impression".
A further email, from unnamed officials, says "there is nothing we can point to that we know for sure is going to the BW [Biological Weapons] programme".
Mr Blair published the WMD dossier in September 2002, which critics believe paved the way for war the following spring.
An inquiry by Lord Butler found blunders in its compilation, with the "45 minutes" claim based on unreliable evidence.
A separate "dodgy dossier" was published in early 2003. It was discovered to have sections copied off the internet.
Reader views (13)
The fact is that Blair deliberately lied in order to justify this country's participation in the war to remove Saddam Hussein. As far as the UK is concerned Blair should be arrested and put on trial in the Hague. No matter how hard the "Establishment" tries to protect him, as I see it the matter is as simple as that.
- Neil, Gloucestershire, England., 14/03/2009 11:41
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On top of the "Downing Street Memo" this is surely enough to have Blair, Straw and others placed on trial for war crimes. The sooner this happens, the better.
And to think that Blair still entertains dreams of becoming European president.
- Paul Allen, Cardigan, UK, 13/03/2009 17:20
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So we know that Bush and Blair conspired to make an war based on lies and manipulations of intelligence. Those criminal acts resulted in very many deaths and human suffering, as well as the wasting of vaste National treasure. Where are the Charges against these intentional crimes! These criminals are entitled to their day in court!
- Philip J Dennany, Indianapolis, 13/03/2009 15:58
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There isn't very much reason to know this and to have this discussion unless something will happen from the release of information. Blair and Bush and their respective administrations should be brought to trial for war crimes in The Hague and they should be jailed for the remainder of their natural lives. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, the result of their actions.
- Greg Smith, London, England, 13/03/2009 12:53
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News flash - there's something going on beyond the ends of your collective noses. "Saddam Hussein posed no imminent threat" did not mean there was no threat! The time to take down a FUTURE threat is BEFORE he's ready.
Reality isn't dependent upon whether you like a political opportunist or not, it's there regardless.
- Rogan, Irving, 13/03/2009 02:25
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What can one say? It does not take much to delude an ill informed and undereducated public
- Pat Mcaree, Fairbanks Alaska, 12/03/2009 22:46
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Shouldnt there be a full inquiry in a democracy ?
- these reasons need to form the basis for future accountable behaviour if there ever is such a thing otherwise there is corruption
- Brian, Rotherham, England, 12/03/2009 22:44
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We all knew him as The Bliar. This was obvious from the first day The Bliar opened his mouth on Iraq. I agree that it would be an excellent idea to get this generally dispersed throughout the E.U. The Bliar still thinks he has a chance of leading the new country that he and Brown have fought so hard to create (and which hopefully the Irish will cause to be stillborn!).
- Phil Jones, London UK, 12/03/2009 16:36
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Neil#
I presume by craven lickspittles you mean the Conservative party.
- Val Daniels, Mijas Costa, Spain, 12/03/2009 16:34
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what,s the difference between blair & brown they can both spin a good yarn.where,s blair now deserted his country why ? ££££
- Robert Phelps, bussiere poitevine 87320 france, 12/03/2009 15:36
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Can we please blazen this headline across every newspaper and billboard throughout Europe so that this self-serving con artist does NOT become President of the EU ? Furthermore, all Europeans who currently pay for his private jet, allowing him to swan around the world on his mission to earn millions in speaking fees, should write to their MEP's demanding he be fired from his phony "Middle East Peace Envoy" position.
- Nigel Bonny, San Diego, USA, 12/03/2009 15:34
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Well, a D-notice usually gets applied to any document that threatens to expose the truth about our lying, warmongering murdering government. T Blair lied and lied so as to drag Britain into the USA's war against truth. The WMD fiasco marked a new low both for our government and for the craven lickspittles who went along with it.
- Neil M., london uk,, 12/03/2009 15:30
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I think the question is not just 'why are we run by such a bunch of lying shysters?' but 'why did the media allow itself to be manipulated so easily by such a bunch of lying shysters?'.
I'm not sure we can rely on the media to tell us this.
- Tom, London, UK, 12/03/2009 15:28
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