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Crunch issues at the G20 summit
Paul Waugh, Deputy Political Editor2 Apr 2009
FISCAL STIMULUS
The Issue
The Brown-Obama hope of getting G20 countries to pledge a fresh round of fiscal stimulus packages is now largely dead , thanks to opposition from the Sarko-Merkel axis. But that hasn't stopped Number 10 "sherpas" from trying to get a form of words into the final communiqué which commits all countries to promising "whatever action is necessary" to inject demand into their economies should current measures prove insufficient.
There are also signs that the summit could come up with a new total figure for the economic stimulus already pledged to date, possibly more than £2.2 trillion.
Although attention has so far focused on the split between debt-averse Germany and France and the borrow-to-spend policies of the US and UK, the real pressure could be on cash rich China and Saudi Arabia. Beijing is sitting on a huge surplus of reserves and Washington wants it spent to get Chinese consumers buying the world's goods.
The Players
UK, US, Germany, France, China, Saudi Arabia
What to watch out for
That phrase "whatever action is necessary" could allow all sides to claim victory. A specific stimulus figure too.
TAX HAVENS
The Issue
France and Germany are warning that an agreement on regulating tax havens and hedge funds is the "red line" without which they cannot leave London.
After years of allowing both to operate freely, London and Washington now agree more monitoring is needed. The main opposition to change is being led by China, which wants to protect its economic powerhouses in Hong Kong and Macau. Sarkozy was seated next to Hu Jintao at the Number 10 dinner last night in a bid to get a compromise.
The key issue is when and whether the G20 publishes a "name and shame" list of those tax havens which refuse reform. There is likely to be a vague ambition to increase global financial regulation in general.
The Players
France, Germany, China
What to watch out for
A list of tax havens which are refusing new regulation.
BANKERS' BONUSES
The Issue
Possibly the topic which will resonate most strongly with domestic voters, a crackdown is what some in Number 10 hope will be the centrepiece of the final deal.
The main proposal on "remuneration" is to link bonuses to risks taken over the long term rather than short-term speculation. Those who want to take on risky decisions should be paid in shares which can be cashed in after several years, rather than cash.
These measures did not appear in a draft communiqué leaked at the weekend and officials have spent the past few days hammering out a deal.
The Players
France, Germany, UK, US
What to watch out for
The precise wording on how bonuses might be restricted. Woolly drafting could get some City firms off the hook.
IMF CASH
The Issue
The International Monetary Fund is expected to be one of the few clear winners to emerge from today's final bout of haggling. The IMF could see its funds nearly trebled from £178 billion to more than £500 billion. But reform of the way the Washington-based organisation works is another crucial issue.
Today should see an end to the 50-year unwritten rule which has allowed the US and Europe to choose the heads of the fund and the World Bank.
Emerging nations also want greater voting rights in return for lending the IMF more money. But that would mean the EU weakening its powers.
The Players
China, Russia, India, Brazil, EU, US
What to watch out for
The total figure for new cash plus weighting of voting rights.
TRADE
The Issue
The elephant in the room for many countries. The communiqué is expected to feature a grand declaration that protectionism is what doomed the world to deep depression in the Thirties after the Wall Street crash.
However, it has been estimated that 17 out of the 20 nations present today have in recent months actually taken sly measures to protect their economies from free trade and labour.
Gordon Brown's "British jobs for British workers" pledge has come under fire from some countries, as has President Obama's "Buy America" campaign rhetoric.
The Players
Brazil, China, India, US, EU
What to watch out for
Any specifics on a new WTO deal beyond the warm words.
