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Alistair Darling’s fantasy Budget exposed
Paul Waugh24 Apr 2009
Alistair Darling's key economic forecast in Wednesday's Budget was destroyed by official figures out today.
They show the economy has slid even deeper into recession.
The statistics revealed output had slumped by 1.9 per cent in the first three months of this year – the sharpest fall in growth for 30 years.
Mr Darling, who predicted in his Budget speech the economy had contracted by 1.6 per cent, was accused of misleading MPs.
Economists said the gross domestic product figure from the Office for National Statistics cast doubt on his forecast of a 3.5 per cent decline over the full year, given only two days ago.
The Tories seized on the figure to warn that the downturn would be deeper and harsher than the Government had claimed.
The fall in GDP reflects savage drops in output for many key sectors of the economy, particularly in services, manufacturing, construction, hotels and restaurants.
Mr Darling said the world economy was so volatile figures were “much harder to read”. Despite the dire figures, he risked echoing the infamous “Crisis, what Crisis?” headlines that dogged Labour in the Seventies.
Speaking in Washington at the G7 finance ministers' meeting, he said there were “reasons to be confident” about the world economy even though the current situation was “difficult”.
Today's figures show the British economy has experienced its worst six months on record, having contracted by 1.6 per cent in the previous quarter. Manufacturing is estimated to have slumped by 6.2 per cent in the quarter.
Shadow chancellor George Osborne said: “Two days ago the Chancellor said his figures for this quarter would be similar to the last quarter – in fact they are worse. This means the recession will be deeper and people will suffer more.”
The Treasury said the provisional ONS figure was based on more recent data than that available to the Chancellor. It said the ONS had only half the information it needed and a final verdict on the last quarter would only be delivered this summer.
Treasury Chief Secretary Yvette Cooper said the figures did not change projections for recovery.
She told Sky News: “We are forecasting a steep recession for this year. That is what is happening. But we also believe the economy will start to recover before the end of the year and will grow strongly in future years.”
The Prime Minister's spokesman denied the Chancellor had misled the House. “We make our forecasts twice a year,” he said. “Obviously we stand by that forecast and we will update that forecast in November.”
Benjamin Williamson, economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said he now expected a 4.5 per cent decline over the full year. Ross Walker, of RBS Economics, said the data marked “an atrocious start to the year” for the UK economy. The ONS provided one chink of light as retail sales rose 0.3 per cent last month.
Reader views (24)
I always feel a gut sense of growing trepidation when I see any government structure in such a bad way, as this current Labour administration clearly is. History proves that at such desperate times our elected representatives will do anything to deflect the blame and if that includes finding some nice new foreign war to fight then that is what they will do. Anything to get our attention span away from their ongoing fiasco must benefit their strategic game plan, so just watch them closely at this time.
Pat Regan: author of Dirty Politics and Founder of Save Southport Greenbelt.
http://www.ssgb.bravehost.com
- Pat Regan, southport, 27/04/2009 09:44
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Brian from Wiltshire "Looks like the tories have set out there stall at last, same as Thatcher, protect the riches wealth and power, and sack the ordinary people and take there homes, jobs, and dignity". Sorry mate, your pals Gordon and Alistair have beaten them to it I'm afraid.If you hadn't already noticed may I point out to you that unemployment will be over 3m by next year, there are almost 1m in negative equity and house repossessions are rising each day- in many areas people have lost all their dignity too because they have no prospects of work. Your worst fears will be realised, but not by the Tories as you think, but by the current Labour government - sorry to let the facts get in the way of your rant!
- Dave B, Manchester, 27/04/2009 09:37
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We don't need fiscal projections, forecasts or any other crystal ball thinking - we need a General Election! If A.D is on the right track, Labour will walk it! - If, as we all know, he is making light of the worse economic crisis in living memory, the opposite will happen. Either way, whoever wins, fiscal and political honesty has to be the order of the day.
- Joannie, London, England, 25/04/2009 23:13
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Steve - I believe Jacqueline was referring to the fact that the electorate didn't vote for this Prime Minister.
- Andrew, St. John's Wood, London, 25/04/2009 13:24
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Jacqueline is clearly living in a antasy world. In this strange world of hers the government is apparently unelected even though the electorate voted for it. Does she not understand the electoral system?
Maybe the government is incompetent, but no economist is forcasting a depression - but Jacqueline I guess would be disappointed at that, just as I feel Cameron and Co are.
- Steve, London, UK, 25/04/2009 00:19
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I never thought a Minister of Transport would make a good Chancellor!
- Nigel L, SW London, 24/04/2009 22:48
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Is not time for this DARLING man to return to his source with the other SALMON ( Alec)
After all we are more the BROWNED off GORDON
- Bernard Parke, GUILDFORD, 24/04/2009 22:37
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We should never have let that bunch in. Now they are un-elected and they never will be. They wait as long as possible to be kicked out and the depression is just starting. Crash Gordon and his bunch are not just utterly INCOMPETENT in economics, fincance etc. but also socially they continue to fail with their feel-good policies and political correctness galore.
- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London, 24/04/2009 18:37
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Lies, damn lies, and budget speeches
- Young Mr Paul, Bristol, 24/04/2009 17:55
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There is a very strong risk that people who own small to medium businesses will simply fire staff so they can pay themselves more to ensure that the new 50 % tax does not hit their income. However much one earns, you live to your means and cutting peoples disposable income will only mean less vat for the government to spend.
- Bill, London, 24/04/2009 17:54
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Silly comments like fantasy budget about Darking's pledges do not become the standard expected of a respectable newspaper. Playing politics with the recession won't work with the British people
- Keith Price, Luton, England, 24/04/2009 16:44
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Why does the ONS - which we pay for - have 'more recent' statistics than the Chancellor - who we also pay for? What does the Treasury have to say about that?
- Chuck Unsworth, London, 24/04/2009 16:21
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Looks like the tories have set out there stall at last, same as Thatcher, protect the riches wealth and power, and sack the ordinary people and take there homes, jobs, and dignity.
- Brian, Wiltshire, 24/04/2009 16:14
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Why the hysteria? Darling is useless, but then so is Osborne.
The recession will only bother the poor, the weak and the old. Those without power.
Celebrities, fat cats, politicians, policemen and the rich will not suffer. they never have and never will.
remember when the Tories get back in they will continue to screw you as they always did. cameron has just said he will reverse the 50p tax, so his rich friends will be pleased and you sheep will have a few more schools closed to pay for it.
- Kerry, Purley, 24/04/2009 16:06
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Is there anything working by a Scottish run person in the UK. The lets reward failure attitude as demonstated by GB,RBS etc etc has even hit my simple home insurance where a well known (Part of RBS) Insurance Co who say you do not need to be rich to use Pr******e cannot after 7 letters, 4 phone calls and 3 complaints still cannot send letter or policy to the correct address!!
Must be some sort of disease or something or is it just lack of any ability or care in their work?
- Mike, London England, 24/04/2009 16:05
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is,nt it about time the public realised the complete goverment lives in fantasy land and are voted out for all there lies and deceit
- Phelps Robert, bussiere poitevine 87320 france, 24/04/2009 16:04
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GIVES US AN ELECTION SO WE CAN GET RID OF YOU
- Dave Davies, Basingstoke, 24/04/2009 15:55
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Give the man a chance he was only 18% out. It is not as if he is the chancellor and has a handle on these things.
It is good that it will all be over at Christmas.
- Ian, Reading, England, 24/04/2009 15:54
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We need to sought out are childrens education,as it is very clear that are leaders did not get a very good one.My daughter has got way into debt and when I asked how she managed it her reply was: The goverment said the way out of debt is to spend more.Faulty Towers Labour.
- David, london, 24/04/2009 15:54
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So not quite telling the truth again !! I saw Yvette Cooper on BBC today it's like watching the rounders captain from the 'upper fourth' giving a lecture on economics to idiots instead of a competent interviewer. She failed to answer one question accurately so no change there then. I begin to lose the will to live when I see her on TV and have to take into account that the country's economic welfare is in her hands along with those of Brown, Darling and hubby Ed !!! Beam me up Scotty no sign of intelligent life in the Treasury .
- Nick Holland, glasgow, 24/04/2009 15:53
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News item: Scruffy red box spotted sinking beneath the waves in area within the Bermuda Triangle.
- Ted, London, 24/04/2009 15:51
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..and when they got there, the cupboard was bare. The fiscal cupboard is actually full of IOUs, and we have to pay for them -and we never even got asked whether we wanted to pay Labour's IOUs.
- Jamal Akhbar, Edinburgh, 24/04/2009 15:46
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If Brown had an ounce of dignity he'd admit he'd made a complete mess of the whole thing and go and live in Scotland with his mate Goodwin, where they'd both drink themselves into an early demise because they were so ashamed.
- Alex C, London, 24/04/2009 15:35
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Those of us who rumbled the establishment years ago, are aware that the world is run by criminally insane psychopaths. Even T.Blair, who pretends to be religious, is a war monger par excellence. So long as we continue to obey the authorities, pay our taxes, and vote, then nothing good can ever come of the world and nothing will ever change.
- Neil, London, London UK, 24/04/2009 14:49
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