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Tories can win London for the first time in a generation
Paul Waugh27.04.09
David Cameron is on course to turn London blue at the next general election after a Standard poll put the Conservatives 12 points ahead of Labour.
In a sharp reversal of the 2005 result, at least 14 Labour seats are set to fall to the Tories, including those of one Cabinet minister and four other ministers.
London minister Tony McNulty, dogged by an investigation into his second homes allowance, would lose Harrow East, the YouGov/Standard survey suggests.
The poll came after one of Mr Cameron's best weeks as Tory leader, with a rallying cry to his troops at the party's spring conference yesterday and Labour given a hammering over its Budget.
Mr Cameron warned voters to brace themselves for tight spending under his administration and pledged a "government of thrift" to reflect the nation's straitened times.
Gordon Brown was dogged by continuing fall-out from the Budget, including fresh speculation about his leadership and claims of Cabinet splits over the 50p supertax.
YouGov found that the Conservatives currently would have the backing of 45 per cent of Londoners at a general election, compared with 33 per cent for Labour. The Liberal Democrats are on 16 per cent.
The 12-point Tory lead contrasts starkly with the 2005 election, when Labour had a seven per cent lead in London. Four years ago, Labour won 39 per cent of the vote in the capital, the Conservatives 32 per cent and the Lib-Dems 22 per cent. Today's poll equates to a swing of 9.5 per cent and if applied uniformly to every seat under boundary changes, at least 14 Labour seats would switch directly to the Tories. Lib-Dem seats of Carshalton, Sutton and Richmond also look vulnerable.
As a result, for the first time in a generation the Conservatives would become the largest party in London, with up to 40 of the capital's MPs.
Among the seats which would fall to the Tories are Brentford and Isleworth, held by health minister Ann Keen; Tooting, held by cohesion minister Sadiq Khan; Poplar and Limehouse, held by transport minister Jim Fitzpatrick, and Harrow West, held by trade minister Gareth Thomas.
Other seats at risk include Battersea, Dagenham, Croydon Central, Ealing North, Ealing Acton and Shepherd's Bush, Eltham, Hammersmith, Hendon and Westminster North. At least two other seats, Finchley and Golders Green and Enfield North may also fall.
The Tories' dominance in London at a general election would complete a trio of successes for the party in the capital. They already hold the largest number of council seats, the highest since the Sixties and Boris Johnson's victory as Mayor underlined the Conservatives' new-found strength in the city.
The Prime Minister's troubles appeared to deepen this weekend amid reports that Lord Mandelson was seen as an outsider in the Cabinet after expressing doubts over the 50p supertax. He and other Blairite ministers had worries about the tax's damage to the New Labour brand. It was claimed that Tony Blair himself thought the 50p rate was a "terrible mistake".
Mr Cameron used his spring conference speech in Cheltenham yesterday to declare that a Conservative victory in the general election would usher in "a massive culture change at every level of government".
He blasted Labour for wasting billions of pounds of taxpayers' cash and pledged to sack any Tory ministers who fail to "deliver more for less".
Mr Cameron said his Government would remove tax credits from higher earners, slash the £12billion patient record system and publish bumper public sector salaries online.
He also suggested that while the current public sector pay round would remain untouched, future pay deals for teachers, police and nurses would have to reflect the new "age of austerity".
And today it emerged that shadow chancellor George Osborne is studying proposals to scrap £3billion of defence projects - the A400M transport aircraft and Future Strategic Tanker Aircraft.
Reader views (29)
Is Anne, London really Gordon Brown? She has nothing positive to say what-so-ever and sounds so typically of the left!
- Sarah, London
Cameron can turn London in to a Tory heartland but I don't care as long as they are kept down there. There are winners and losers so its Londons turn to be the losers. They have had a hint of this with the circus clown. T H Leeds
- Thomas Hayes, Leeds UK
Tony of Wakefield, every labour governments has run out of money and left the country in a mess. Not technically correct. It's when they run out of other peoples money the country goes skint. The reason in my view is, they don't understand "work" they think just attending a place of employment is work! That's why Britain will always go skint under Loony-Labour.
- Mike, London
Harriet Harperson advertised what is wrong with this rotten government on the 'Today' programme this morning. Her solution to the employment crisis? To get public bodies to monitor class distinctions in health and education. What was frightening was that she trilled through the plan without any indication she could see how insulting it was. Or that the list of Quangoes and acronymic bodies were part of the problem of government waste. Or that this new red tape has no concievable purpose. What I'd like to see the day after the general election is George Osborne and Ken Clarke walk into 11 Downing Street with a copy of David Craigs' book 'Squandered' as their guidebook; For Regional Government to be given 3 months notice an hour after Cameron kisses the Queen's hand; every Guardian wednesday job to be suspended; Child Benefit to be only given for the first two children for new claimants after they have been means tested; and for immigration to be cut.
- Richard Meredith, huntingdon
To know what a Tory government would be like look at Hammersmith and Fulham.Where the elderly,disabled and vunerable children have been hit to save less than a pound a week off the council tax.
- Colin, barking essex
"The Tories have run the NHS for most of its existence including its so called golden years." - Tony, Wakefield UK
I think you'll find that the golden years weren't those up to and including 1997.
- Anne, London
...and yet maybe Erith and Thamemead will still get to keep Georgina Gould the 22 yr old to be appointed by Labour's aristocracy
- Geoff Coles, London and Cape Town
The trick to Labour staying in power is ensuring we have a badly educated population who cannot understand that you can not spend money you do not have. Unfortunately by the time the country works this out we are on the verge of Labour induced bankruptcy as with 1951 so 1979 and again look where we are. It will take another generation to sort this out whilst Blair, Brown et al enjoy peerages and tax payer funded pensions bundled up with their own shows on the BBC
- Simon, London
Matt K, it is a local MP we vote for and then that MP supports a party and the leader of the party with most seats in the Commons usually becomes PM. If the Tories took all the seat except Witney then David Cameron would not be PM. It is only the Blairite cult of personality that says we have a 'Presidential' style PM.
Also - To Jerry in San Francisco - are you suggesting that our political system should have an 18 month election campaign like yours? as this is the direct result of fixed terms.
- Jim, London
Richard in Cheltenham and Anne in London are clearly deluded. Anne, the Tories have run the NHS for most of its existence including its so called golden years.
Richard, you are a blind fool. The last Tory government left money in the bank, the world's best pension provision which Labour have since raped to destruction and an effectively regulated financial services sector.
What the Conservatives do is make the country live within its means, pay its bills and not pass the burden of our profligacy on to our grandchildren.
Every Labour government has left the country bankrupt when they have run out of money and the following Conservative government always have to clean up the mess. Don't believe me, look at the historical facts.
Tory sleaze is always predominantly to do with sex. Labour's sleaze is usually to do with money, greed and personal gain. Its only the public who get shafted.
I know which I would rather have
- Tony, Wakefield UK
The sooner Brown,Harman,Smith and Mandelson go the better. The tories may not be perfect, but they cannot be any worse than the nasty, bullying and useless party that have been in power for the past 10 years. Roll on the revoloution !
- Michael, London
Anne - London.. ugh, your scare tactics regarding the Tories health policies are typical smear from Labour HQ.
We need a change and this lot have been too arrogant to accept it. Even the Labour leader is more interested in staying in power and creating himself a "legacy" than be elected by the public.
- Clint Heine, Shepherds Bush
I can see why a generation of voters would consider voting for the Tory's. There is one small problem, i can't see why anyone would want to vote for Cameron, he is too plastic. They need to look at Boris and either get him in or get someone who connects with people without 'obvious' spin. They said Boris would never be Mayor but it worked!
- Matt K, london uk
I would be happier with the Tory's winning if they had shown some decent 'Opposition' in the last 12 years.
Where were they when when we had over 3,000 new laws bought in? Where were they when we have had the most oppressive, money wasting dictatorship in power?
I have no doubt that they will win, but mainly because Labour are so useless.
- Roger, Surrey
I don't care about 'more for less'. The same for less will satisfy me. Even less for less will do. Just, for god's sake, make it 'for less'. We can't afford any more.
- Mark M, Warrington
I look forward to Election Night and those swathes of seats turning blue - especially Hammersmith!
- Sally Roberts, Hammersmith, London, United Kingdom
And when is the next general election going to be? You need elections every 4 years like here. You do not have a democracy when the incumbent party can decide when to have an election.
- Jenny, san francisco ca ( ex-londoner)
Same old same old.
- Dom, London
"We remained critically dependent on a poorly regulated Financial Services"
I'd like to welcome poor old Richard, Cheltenham on his wakening from the coma he must have been in since 1997.
In his delusion he sates that labour has followed the policies of the last Tory government.. Either naivity of a delusion that if you tell a lie often enough it becomes a fact (Copyright NuLabour)
Hey Richard, just to bring you up to date. In 1997 Brown,Balls and Darling came up with the bliding genius to take banking supervision away from the Bank of England. According to Labour the jury was still out on the question of the success of the BofE as there had only been a century and a half of success. They "beefed" up the incompetent FSA by drafting more incompetents in and in just over a decade this "not fit for purpose" organisation presided over a run on a bank. It might be "worrying" but so is selective amnesia.
- Retired Roger, The Real World
This is worrying. Labour have proved naive and incompetent but they simply continued more or less as the last Conservative government had, they talked social policy but economically changed very little. We remained critically dependent on a poorly regulated Financial Services Sector and continued to undermine pensions in the way that Lord Lawson began.. I suspect frying pan back to fire. We need a REAL change. LibDems anyone?
- Richard, Cheltenham
If Cameron gets in the only thing turning blue will be patients on waiting lists for operations under a Tory government.
- Anne, London
Finchley and Golders Green surely that is a win already given they need a 0.68% swing?
- Sarah, London
Labour - Put us out of our misery and call an election now.
- Dave Davies, Basingstoke
How many more months do we have to wait?
How many more months do Labour have to destroy London and Britain completely?
I want the Tories in power AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, please!!
- Rollo, London
.... and we can all say goodbye to doom & bust Brown: -
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/please-go/
- Joe, Thornton Heath, UK
If you want to see some Tory policies go to their website - it's all there.
- Mark Burton, St Ives. Cambs
Wouldnt it help if we knew some of his policies?
- Angel, London Lewisham
Why? Anything would be better than the current bunch of cretins who have run up a debt totalling more than all previous governments put together. And, instead of trying to decrease is they are gonna spend more ....
Anyways, will be great to see the Tories in if only to have a good laugh at Val, Wayne and Keith.
- Sarit, Hong Kong
Government should not be immune from spending cuts whilst unemployment and Browns massive decade stretching debt hammer the nation. There are no sacred cows, it is simply a matter of living within our means, public services long pampered by excessive unaffordable spending had better get used to the new economic reality that Brown has impoverished the nation for a long time to come.
- Ian, Dartford, UK
Wouldnt it help if we knew some of his policies?
- Angel, London Lewisham
