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Let’s just wait and see before we start to panic
Professor Wendy Barcla, Chair in influenza virology at Imperial College, London27.04.09
There is really only one thing we can do about the current outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and around the world — wait and see.
We know that the virus is almost certainly spreading from person to person, and that it is a new strain which can spread quickly. Given this, a worldwide pandemic is likely, and London is at very high risk because of the sheer number of people travelling through.
However, what we do not know is just how dangerous this strain is.
I believe that the current mortality figures from Mexico, a naive society in terms of dealing with a pandemic, are out of proportion. The problem has been that only people who are gravely ill are going to their doctors, and I believe there are many, many more who have beaten the virus and who are not being counted.
So far it seems we are dealing with a fairly normal strain of flu. It will spread quickly, but is no more dangerous than the summer flu strains we see.
For people with flu-like symptoms, the advice is exactly the same as normal — rest, take plenty of fluids, and do not return to work until you feel better.
There is also a lot of confusion over Tamiflu, which can treat flu symptoms. Some strains similar to the Mexican swine flu have developed a resistance to it, but at the moment we do not believe that has happened. The government has stockpiled enough to treat one in two people, and I believe this is more than enough. I would definitely caution people about buying their own supplies online — the key to Tamiflu's effectiveness is knowing when and how to administer it. There's also a very good chance that what you buy online at a vastly over-inflated price won't be Tamiflu anyway.
But we need several more weeks of data to see how the virus spreads, and how bad it really is. The next few weeks will be critical, but it really is a case of just wait and see.
Reader views (5)
Well done Wendy. Finally comment from an intelligent authority on the subject. This article should be front page. Wendy for PM!
- Ivan, London
Lets all be given a week on full pay to all stay at home and ride this thing through.
- Andrew, London
Thanks Wendy.
Your article is easily the most sane response so far to a fast developing hysteria. Mexico is a third world country where the medical infrastructure is no way as developed as the USA or the EU. So two points. First the number of cases of swine influenza is probably very high and we are only hearing about those which are serious or where death occurs. Secondly in a third world country a badly infected person is less likely to visit a doctor until symptoms are very marked and where it might be too late.
All this points in the direction of a summer influenza epidemic which developed countries should easily be able to cope with.
- Tom, Twickenham
- Tom Printon, Twickenham Middx
What a sane, level headed article by a respected virologist - unlike the hysteria engendered on the BBC by medical and health correspondents who have no academic qualifications in these disciplines, but who need to hype stories. In the event of a pandemic the Government must insist to the BBC that they disseminate information and advice through properly qualified professionals we can trust.
- Mac, Fife
Wendy, you know your stuff, so we cannot argue. However, surely, unlike an approaching killer asteroid that no amount of panicing will deter, in the case of swine (or bird) flu, perhaps panicing may be a good thing? If people stay home and away from large crowds - even stock up on food and supplies, that may cause the flu to fizzle out before it can take hold. And if this is all a false alarm, it is good practise - just like fire and earthquake drills. Furthermore, people will now have perishable goods in store for when things really do fall apart. And no matter what, all that extra shopping may help the economy!
- Vision Aforethought, Oxford & London
