Tonight:
8°c
Richard Barnbrook, the BNP's London leader, is on a doorstep in Hornchurch, in earnest conversation with a housewife, trying to ignore the fact that his trousers have just started playing patriotic music.
As the faint strains of “Jerusalem” waft northwards from his mobile, the others in the group — the voter, a BNP aide and two Evening Standard journalists — start looking at each other, struggling not to laugh, but the leader presses on. He's at least a minute into his spiel before he mentions his party.
Mr Barnbrook need not have been so shy. In Westland Avenue, at least, the BNP appears to have built its green and promised land. It's owner-occupied Thirties houses down here, not the party's stereotypical council-estate heartland.
But though this voter, Valerie Perkins, is smiling at him, she's also going to vote for him.
“We can't take any more,” she said.
“They're wiping out our history, apologising for being British.” At the next house, Toni Rose said: “It's the only party to vote for because it's British.” Why is it British? “Nothing I'd like to voice.” And so on down the street.
Earlier in the day and a little to the west, in Barking, we'd been at a rather more downbeat launch for the local forces of anti-racism. The Hope not Hate campaign had an open-topped bus, half-a-dozen supporters in yellow T-shirts, a couple of dozen other workers, Dagenham Labour MP Jon Cruddas, and people from the main political parties.
But the main political parties are in bad odour right now. The atmosphere was subdued, and Mr Cruddas looked disengaged and tired.
After Sam Tarry, the local organiser, had given the troops a short pep talk, he asked Mr Cruddas if he had anything to add. The MP said he didn't, apart from the fact that this part of east London was “the frontline against the BNP”.
The story from the “BNP frontline” might, then, seem set to follow the script already written for it by much of the media and political class — like Harriet Harman, Labour's deputy leader, who warns that after the expenses meltdown those on the far Right are a “bigger threat than they've ever been before”.
Two and a half weeks before the country goes to the polls for the European Parliament, new analysis for the Standard of recent council by-elections by LSE expert Tony Travers shows that the far Right has indeed been notching up some significant performances.
In January, in a ward in Bexley, they almost doubled their vote, to 26 per cent; in February, in a Lewisham ward, they went from nothing to 10.5 per cent.
Outside the capital, the BNP are scoring percentages in the thirties and forties in wards where they did not even stand before.
“What it shows is that even from a standing start, they can make a substantial jump,” said Mr Travers.
“It is evidence that the BNP have been significantly more active than in the past, that they are trying to build up their presence and that even before the expenses scandal there was a growing alienation they could tap into.”
But the reality might be more encouraging. Slightly suspicious of the BNP operation in Westland Avenue — we seemed only to go to houses where someone from Mr Barnbrook's canvassing party had already made contact — I asked if we could try a different road, with the leader going first.
So on we went to Bowden Drive, and though the properties were the same, we had literally and metaphorically turned a corner.
Mr Barnbrook did find one BNP voter — but everyone else was politely, implacably against. “No,” they'd simply say, or “You're too extreme.”
Or: “I don't agree with your views, I think you hide under this stuff [about taking on establishment politicians].” Barnbrook: “If you think this is anything to do with race or colour ... ” Voter: “It is, though.”
The backlash against the big parties is undeniable — nobody would admit to voting for them — but it doesn't seem to be benefiting the far Right as much as you might think. And these sentiments appear to be shared elsewhere.
A national opinion poll yesterday had the BNP on four per cent, only one per cent above where they were at this stage in the 2004 European elections.
In a poll on Friday, significantly one where the UK Independence Party scored very high, the BNP was on just three per cent.
In the London Assembly vote of 2004, which happened on the same day as the last Euro-election, a strong showing by Ukip denied the BNP a seat. Last year, Ukip's collapse delivered the BNP's first Assembly seat to Mr Barnbrook.
“What's happened now is that the sheer scale of the meltdown in the political world has changed the dynamics,” said Mr Travers. “I believe that paradoxically the BNP may have been damaged because it's created a bandwagon of people who aren't prepared to go to the BNP but are prepared to go to Ukip.
“There is a lot of voting traffic between the BNP and Ukip and if it becomes clear to BNP voters that the way to chastise the political class is to vote Ukip, we could see them go to Ukip.”
The BNP's traditional saving grace — its lack of discipline — seems to be helping, too. Nick Griffin, the party's national leader, has torpedoed months of attempts to airbrush the party's racism by announcing that black people cannot be fully British.
BNP ads proclaiming “British jobs for British workers” turn out to have been photographed with American models.
In east London, Bob Bailey, a former Royal Marine, the BNP's London organiser and its top candidate in the London Euro-elections, talks a good game about the need to “professionalise the party, win over a more affluent voter”.
But then we're speaking about Mr Cruddas, the MP, and he suddenly says: “People know what he's like. You go to his parliamentary surgery, and it's full of Nigerians. I've served in conflict zones, and I can see we're sliding down the slippery slope to Lagos ... In 40 years' time, white British people will be extinguished like the American Indians.”
Mr Bailey's predecessor as London organiser, Nick Eriksen, was sacked last year after the Standard revealed that he had written a blog about how women enjoyed being raped.
Mr Bailey hasn't done anything quite that stupid, but the Standard can reveal that within the past few weeks he has been massmailing implicitly threatening emails to anti-racism campaigners.
One message says: “Put yourself in my shoes. I have your email addresses and more. Is it not time to repent for your sinful ways and turn your back on doing the dirty work of the state?”
One of the people who received the emails said: “It was pretty frightening — he's in a very senior position and is effectively saying we know where you live'.” Mr Bailey said last night: “I'm not denying I sent it but I can't remember.”
It appears clear, too, that as well as a potential shortage of votes the BNP is suffering from an actual shortage of funds.
In the party's “London Bulletin” last month, Mr Bailey writes: “We have raised enough money for 3.5 million A5 leaflets ... unfortunately, we fell short of raising enough funds for an A4 leaflet.”
And if Ukip, embarrassing statements and missing leaflets are not enough on their own, the BNP faces one last, perhaps deadliest, enemy: the European electoral system.
It is proportional — but unlike most other EU countries, which elect their MEPs in a single national constituency, Britain elects them by region.
Most of the BNP's strongest regions, such as Yorkshire and the east and west Midlands, only elect five or six MEPs each. You need about a sixth of the vote in each region for a seat — roughly double the BNP's 2004 figure.
London elects eight MEPs, putting the bar at about eight to 10 per cent. But multi-racial London, outside a few pockets like Barking, is not the best area for the far Right.
Even Mr Barnbrook concedes that a BNP win in the capital is “unlikely”. The BNP's real hopes are fixed on the North-West, which has both eight Euro-seats and a somewhat bigger racist vote.
Even there, however, it may not be big enough. Dan Hodges, spokesman for anti-racism organisation Searchlight, said: “Last week was supposed to be the big one for the BNP, with the campaign launch, the party political broadcast and the rest. But they ended no higher in the polls than they were before. Their campaign looks like it's in serious trouble.”
The truth is that an election which many feared could be the BNP's coming of age might turn out to mark the beginning of its end.
As Mr Travers says: “In the past six months we have seen the collapse of the financial system, followed by the collapse of the political class. If the BNP can't make it now, they probably never will.”
Reader views (42)
Farage claims £200,000 a year allowances. He'll not wreck the EU gravy train.
The greens (commies) want immigration while we cannot feed ourselves. Our population is now 1691 people per square mile. 60+ millions for 60 million arable acres. Lets wait the for energy crunch at 100+ million here.
The big three also want you in the EU. Hitler and Mussolini's legacy.
Anyone who opines rubbish like 'Griffin will eat your hamsters'. They either haven't a clue about BNP policy or require psychiatric evaluation.
Go find out for real!
- Andyj, wigan
"I hope you are right in your editorial It would be a sad day for democracy if even one person from the BNP is elected"
- Sheila, london uk
No shiela, it wouldn't be a sad day for democracy, it would just be democracy at work, exactly as it's supposed to.
There seems to be a strange idea in the UK these days that if someone gets elected who's views you do not support that somehow democracy has been damaged, when in fact it is your attitude that is dangerous to democracy.
The BNP get no voice, are unfairly villified, and condemned morally by the very same people in Westminster who have been shown to be devoid of any moral culpability.
I think the BNP would bring a refreshing air of change to British politics, and I think their honesty and the fact that they are normal people, not career politicians, scares the Hell out of mainstream politicians.
- Dash, leeds uk
"Unemployed 'white working class' people voting for UKIP and the BNP should be asking themselves why they are unemployed. How many of them are prepared to study hard or to roll up their sleeves and work? The answer is, not many." Matt London
Matt you sound like a priveledged twit who has middle class guilt directed at your own people as you see them. Why 'unemployed white working class' ? I think you are showing class prejudice, the white working class are mostly self employed contractors such as electricians plumbers, etc who provide real services within this nation. Those unlucky to have few skills are trapped on benefits by a system which prevents them from competing with migrant labour as the 'going rate' is not economically viable when you have a family and responsibilities to finance. Matt you need to stand on yor own two feet before you can judge others.
- Mike Robertson, Leeds
The picture is in Elm Park, would come under Hornchurch more than Dagenham...
Living in Hornchurch, I have received so many leaflets and flyers promoting the BNP and have been hassled by them when walking around Hornchurch High Street.
They have gone 'all out' to convince voters in the area and the propaganda machine they are churning out in the area is getting stronger and more frequent as each week goes by.
If there is anywhere they are going to gain a large percentage increase, it's here. Especially with it being predominantly white and with the negative feelings when somebody not white moves into the area, which is happening more frequently lately....
- Georgie, Hornchurch
Regarding the BNP's recent advances, Andrew Gilligan writes: "in February, in a Lewisham ward, they went from nothing to 10.5 per cent".
In fact, the BNP stood the same candidate in the same ward (Downham) in 2002.
In the May 2002 local elections she got 462 votes (16%) and in a by-election in November she got 519 votes (20%).
So the BNP's February 2009 result in fact marked a sharp decline in support.
This reinforces Andrew Gilligan's point that "multi-racial London, outside a few pockets like Barking, is not the best area for the far Right".
- Robert Wilkins, London
Looks from the latest poll by Sky that the BNP are likely to get 9.5% vote higher than the LibDems and only 2% behind Labour. Hardly a hollow threat and substantiates what I have found talking to people I know who are not extremists.
- Richard K, Nottingham
Most serious opinion polls put the BNP on 28% of the vote while UKIP is expected to get 3%. I have been looking at the actual voting results for the past year which show an average of over 20% for the BNP and just 0.43% for UKIP. As you can see both parties are expected to benefit from the MP expenses scandal.
- David Bey, London
The threat from the BNP comes from the fact that with the demise of Communism and Socialism their is a vacume on the left of politics which means there no no where for the working class to go when they are disatified with the main Labour Party.
This is also a consequence of the way Thatcher took the Conservative Party to the right and in order to get Labour electable Tony Blair followed on while The Liberals have also moved to the right leaving the BNP or UKIP as areas for dis-illulusioned voters.
Many people had hopes that Gordon Brown would reverse the move to the right but he has failed in this respect. Had he applied prudence to MP's expenses when he became leader the expenses row would have meant the Tories with their Moats would have been seen as wasteful but his failure to act means all parties look the same.
- Melvyn Windebank, Canvey Island, Essex
At the end of the day, people can go to the British National Party website, see their REAL policies, and judge them for themselves.
- True Patriot, London UK
I hope you are right in your editorial It would be a sad day for democracy if even one person from the BNP is elected
- Sheila, london uk
I can't help but smile at some of the comments on here. While the BNP are without a doubt (and for many reasons) not the party to improve this country's lot one iota, the hateful language (e.g. "scum who must be eradicated" - seriously, WT??)from some of you might actually make a BNP supporter look docile! But then, like so many other things(expenses, etc), it's always "different because it's us", isn't it?
- H, London, UK
Spot on Chris M. Couldn't agree more. Frightening to think, though, that god forbid the British Nazi Party ever came to power, despite the lies they hide behind, that the UK would adopt a system of apartheid, segregation and (at worse, but who knows) incarceration and execution of non-white citizens, gays and the mentally handicapped. Doesn't bear thinking about.
I'm seriously considering taking the UKIP route, having now read their manifesto thoroughly. We can only hope....
- Napoleon Blownaparte, London
Like the BNP Adolf Hitler promised German jobs for German people! & to repatriate non whites!
I lost two grand parents in the Second World War fighting this racist scum! they are every thing that’s wrong with this country they are no different from Islamic extremists preaching pure “hatred & segregation“.
SHOULD THEY EVER COME TO POWER IT WOULD DISHONOUR MY GRAND PARENTS & EVERY U.K. CITIZEN WHO DIED IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR WHO GAVE THERE LIVES TO RID THE WORLD OF FASCISM.
BNP WOULD DESTROY THIS GREAT COUNTRY OF OURS!
- Chris M, London
The BNP is a democratic party - and we, supposedly, live in a democracy ... what would these so called democrats prefer - that the BNP is banned ? That is how terrorism starts - so beware !
- Kathy Doyle, london
Kathy, if you're so convinced that the BNP are a demopcratic party, I think you seriously need to wake up and smell the coffee! That's assuming you weren't making a tongue-in-cheek quip and that you're genuinely deluded and/or ignorant.
- Napoleon Blownaparte, London
the BNP want a white only britain and they say they aren't racist - they are scum through and through. They contain murderers, rapists and other criminals who want to stand for election.
Do not the white mans abu humza in - fight them till the end
- Sid, colchester
The important thing that has to happen within a few months, is for constituency parties to carefully scrutinize their incumbent MP, and to sieze back the initiative from the now discredited central parties. They must de-select any MP who has behaved dishonorably with respect to expenses, and preferably also any MP who was parachuted in by central office and who has no personal intrerest in the constituency.
Next an election, to do the same job if the constituency parties fail. We should vote for the candidate rather than the party. Kick out the party hacks, even if they have not also been feathering their nests at our expense. Elect new faces, preferably people who've spent at least twenty years working at real jobs in their constituencies, rather than playing politics as a career.
I actually feel somewhat optimistic. Unless the electorate of this country goes mad and votes for opportunist extremists, we could come out of this mess with a rejuvenated house of commons, and MPs much less willing to just fill their party's lobby on demand.
- Nigel, London
Mike, London - you should realise that you don't need to be in the EU to trade with it. Switzerland decided to keep a distance and its trade went up faster than ours.
Countries like America operate a Green Card system which means they can be selective about what overseas workers they admit. Within the EU, we don't even have the final say on what criminals from Europe we are allowed to bar.
- Brian, London
The BNP is a democratic party - and we, supposedly, live in a democracy ... what would these so called democrats prefer - that the BNP is banned ? That is how terrorism starts - so beware !
- Kathy Doyle, london
Why vote BNP when we already have a fascist government? Tebbit was right, the BNP are the Labour party only with racism added.
- Derek, London
Lots of my friends will be voting UKIP in June. No doubt the big parties will come out with their usual silly threats about what happens if we leave the EU. Sadly, Scottish Labour tried similar threats to stop the SNP (like suggesting that Scots would need a visa to visit granny in Newcastle) and failed miserably. Just ask the big parties how they voted in Brussels when the publication of MEPs expenses was debated. UKIP voted to publish the details. Why are the big parties frightened to tell us ?
- Doug Watt, london e14
I'm British and patriotic, but I'm not a little Englander, Ukip are just bonkers and the BNP are pure filth, sub human guttersnipes who must be eradicated. most of them can't string a sentence together, unles it's the sentence the Judge has just handed down for ABH, GBH, etc.
- Kerry, Purley
Unemployed 'white working class' people voting for UKIP and the BNP should be asking themselves why they are unemployed. How many of them are prepared to study hard or to roll up their sleeves and work? The answer is, not many. Most of them leave school at 16 and still expect to be given a good job like their fathers and grandfathers were 20 or 30 years ago. The fact is the world has changed, but they haven't changed with it.
- Matt, London UK
Matt for Prime Minsiter!!!
This man speaks genuine sense. It seems the whole country has developed a "I want but NO effort" mentality.
Where are the "go getters" these days?
- Decency, London, UK
What a nice piece of nostalgia in the photograph. The Elm Park Hotel used to be a "crash helmet" pub. How approproate to canvass there.
- Bj, London
Lj - can you tell me what the BNP stands for? The fact that you're planning to vote for them suggests that you are, at best, misguided but, more likely, totally uninformed.
- Astonished, London
I work in grass-roots politics, and I can assure you that, David Camerobs performance as opposition leader has been so lamentable of late, that the BNP is a real threat in the forthcoming elections.I hopeLabour recover oe the country will have big regrets
- Keith Price, Luton, England
The problem is bieng British and loving your country is seen as bieng racist, most people in the uk have no problem with our Asian friends or any other person that settles here in peace, but when they fight this country, the country that has offered them refuge from poverty and extremism, and the govt stifles any form of Britishness, they play into the hands of the BNP and give the BNP's argument validity.
We are living in dangerous times with rising unemployment and more civil unrest particularly with our immigrant population amongst whom are people who feel a real hatred to the uk, the govt must allow Britain to keep its traditions and not be ashamed of its nationalism, or the BNP's attitude will spread like a cancer among the less educated and the people who support racism.
- Brian, Wiltshire
The name BNP is used by the big three in a cynical attempt to ensure they are voted for. No just person could consider voting far-right and whites-only political party no matter how aggrieved we feel. I did consider voting Green but after only 10 minutes of viewing the green website and manifesto I was totally discouraged. UKIP do seem to offer the people what they want
A firm line on immigration and withdrawing Britain from the European Union sounds very attractive, shame they are viewed as more of a Tory pressure group than a serious political party.
None of the above should be added to the ballet paper so we become a true democracy and the people are offered really choice or a chance to say no to the lot of em.
- Gary, Brentwood
UKIP will slaughter BNP but neither will harm a Tory victory only Labour will suffer (Im pleased to say)
- Mike, London England
BNP are far too right wing for me. If I am to protest it will be UKIP.
- Dave Davies, Basingstoke
People should vote their minds without fear of a BNP surge, which is a side-show created by spin-doctors of the beleaguered main-stream parties. The best the BNP can hope for is one or two MEPs. This would be a national embarrassment, but hardly the dawn of a new reichstag.
- Bloke, London
Why not just get rid of our party-political system?
We can elect non-political party constituency representative to discuss in parliament the issues of the day and pay them the national average wage as they should be supporting their constituents needs and principles rather than towing the party line. The representative doesnt get a vote but instead, the options for a resolution should be voted for by the populace via the internet and digital tv etc, For those who want to vote.
Being as we can vote for the x factor or countless other polls online or otherwise, why dont we just take the power away from the politicians?
- Paul R, London
My child goes to a school where he is bullied for being white, and is one of only 2 white children in the class.
My area has changed from a typical white, London area with a small, healthy mix of other races/nationalities to a area totally alien to me which resembles Lagos rather than London
Tell me that we havent got a major problem in this country and then tell me what one of the major parties will look into this
I dont want to vote for the BNP but i will
- Lj, London
Unemployed 'white working class' people voting for UKIP and the BNP should be asking themselves why they are unemployed. How many of them are prepared to study hard or to roll up their sleeves and work? The answer is, not many. Most of them leave school at 16 and still expect to be given a good job like their fathers and grandfathers were 20 or 30 years ago. The fact is the world has changed, but they haven't changed with it.
- Matt, London UK
People who vote for UKIP and the BNP are completely clueless! Both parties advocate complete withdrawal from the EU. This would be a disaster for British companies, many of whom do huge amounts of business with Europe and sell their products in Europe. And what about all the British people who work in the EU or own property there, and vice versa - what would they have to do, pack their bags and come home? UKIP and BNP voters are simply stupid.
- Mike, London UK
Where BNP councillors have been elected they have frequently failed to turn up to meetings, and one councillor did not even understand what the term "abstain" meant.
THe BNP want to "repatriate" or deport Theo Walcott, Lenny Henry, Meera Syall and many of our greatest British citizens who do not have white skins. This would include my best friend, my flat-mate, 3 of my work colleagues and lots of my mates. All of whom were born in this country and love this country because it it THEIR home!
UK politics has a big problem. BNP are not the solution.
- Danny, London
Does anyone think voting any way for the European Parliament makes any difference?
Those in power simply laugh behind their hands the powerless citizens having been allowed to make a wee protest to let off steam.
- Mike Newland, London, England
Hilarious, UKIP seems to be the way forward, let's be honest, the main 3 parties have proven themselves inept at every level, time to give others (except the BNP) a chance.
- Bob, Cheam
ukip for me; common sense, pro british and not nasty racists; they got my vote!
- Jules_London, london
Voting in the BNP would be the final nail in the coffin for British Politics, and I do not blame people for being angry over the present thieving bunch, but maybe a vote for UKIP might be better for protesting, and also it might lead us out of the so called Common Market,if you think our politicians are corrupt, these Europeans beat us hands down, we really do not want to go down the road of the far right, do not forget the millions that died in Nazi Germany!. Yes we do need to protest, but we also need a way back.
- David Crocket, Bradford, UK
The BNP are trying to claim they are different from corrupt politicians but I cant see how. In Barking they have councillors who rarely turn up for meetings, and dont pay their council house rents, despite getting £30,000 expenses, while at the GLA Richard Barnbrook hasnt done anything recently apart from turn up in fancy dress - worth the £56,000 a year he gets? If they get a Euro MP theyll be quite happy to astick their nose in an even bigger trough.
- Rob Smith, St Albans
It'll be benefitting UKIP though! Everyone I spoken to so far are going to vote for them, including myself.
- Sue, Orpington, Kent
If that's a promotional photo of Bob Bailey, then the BNP really hasn't got a clue: the photo has "smug" and "thug" written all over it!
- Marianne, SW France/London
