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Darling insists recession will be over by Christmas
Nicholas Cecil20 May 2009
The recession will be over within seven months, Alistair Darling insisted today.
Despite gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy by independent experts, the Chancellor stuck to his prediction that growth will resume around Christmas. He also dismissed claims that an economic rebound next year is too optimistic.
“I am not going to change my forecasts. I remain confident that we will see a return to growth at the turn of the year,” he said today. In the Budget four weeks ago, Mr Darling estimated the economy would shrink by 3.5 per cent this year but would expand by 1.25 per cent in 2010.
His predictions are out of step with other forecasts, with the International Monetary Fund warning the economy could continue to shrink by a further 0.4 per cent next year.
But the Chancellor defended the Treasury's assessment last month of the country's economic prospects.
“None of the figures I have seen since would change the projections that I have made,” he said. Mr Darling's views echo the belief of some economists who say the worst of the recession may be over.
The Chancellor also said recovery would depend on banks boosting the flow of credit and on European governments shoring up their banks. He said: “I remain confident that we will come through this, provided we ensure that we deliver what we set out at the G20, and what we are doing ourselves, particularly in relation to ensuring that the bank lending agreements are fully implemented.”
Mr Darling swept aside fears that the economy was sliding towards deflation after official figures yesterday showed retail figures falling at the fastest rate since June 1948. He said the drop in inflation was “in line with expectations”.
Mr Darling repeated his warnings that “tough decisions” will be needed for Britain to balance its books, which will reinforce concerns over possible tax rises or sharp public spending cuts.
The Chancellor also played down reports that the Government could start selling off the taxpayer's stake in part-nationalised banks, the Royal Bank of Scotland and the Lloyds Banking Group, within a year.
Reader views (31)
I am totally against what Mr.Darling is saying, they don't have enough funds to regenerate the growth again in this country.This should be blamed to the laws made earlier by the Government, providing unnecessary facilities to all.Look at all asian countries, they have money, development is still going on on large scales, then why not here.Trust me things will never change in this country.
- Manav, Surrey,United Kingdom, 30/06/2009 22:52
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"It'll all be over by Christmas," said Darling.
That sounds familiar...
- Roy, England, 21/05/2009 09:20
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Even if things do start to turn around by X-Mas, we have a an Everest to climb in terms of repaying our national debt which is in the trillions.
Labour has destroyed our society, sold us out to a corrupt, unaccountable, unelected executive in Brussels and bankrupted our country for generations to come.
Socialism at it's best.
- Frank, Home Counties, England., 21/05/2009 09:18
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Should he not go home and leave the office that his "boss" Crash Gordon gave him, un-electedly?
- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London, 20/05/2009 23:13
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THIS MAN IS WIRED TO THE MOON MAY BE IF THE BANKERS AND MPS WHERE NOT ON THE FIDDLE THE RECESSION WOULD NOT BE HERE THINK OF THE BILLIONS THEY HAVE SQUANDERD THEY SHOULD ALL BE IN JAIL .
- Jim Fennessey, london, 20/05/2009 21:12
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Let's hope that he'll be over by Christmas.
- Richard, Welling, 20/05/2009 17:13
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I'm sure someone is spiking Darling's haggis and neeps, and probably Val's tea too.
- Doug Watt, london, 20/05/2009 17:03
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Read all the comments except one,agree with all.Every time Darling opens his mouth [operated by Brown] the markets take a hit.There is no evedence that his statement is is based on fact or even trends,QE and good old fashioned 'smoke and mirrors'is what he is using...again!!Silly little man.
- Tithonus, Athens, 20/05/2009 16:55
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Val, in Spain. You are priceless!
Best you remain in Spain though, you'll look silly in your rose tinted glasses in bleak Britain.
- Mrs, London UK, 20/05/2009 16:10
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Val: The market is currently “gliding” up and up on a wing and a prayer spurred on in a large way by the increase in cash sloshing around from quantitative easing. Unless some of this seeps back into the main economy to sustain such an increase in “perceived” value, the recent rally may turn out to be rather short lived an as such experience a very sharp correction. Couple that with increasing unemployment - the summer of discontent is looming when thousands of students between the ages of 16 and 21 leave school, college or university with no job to go to you might have a different opinion of things.
The recent rocket in the value of the pound I might add is doing British exporters no favour whatsoever and the recent spur of motor vehicle replacement scrappage scheme is benfiting who in the long term?
- Wallytrader, London, 20/05/2009 15:20
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The country insists the Labour Government will be over long before that!
Join me on Monday 1st June outside 10 Downing Street and tell doom & bust Brown just what you think of him and his useless Labour Government!
- Joe, Thornton Heath, UK, 20/05/2009 15:17
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And the fairy's will be using pink flying pig's to tow santa's slay no doubt and gordo's red nose to guide them
- Edriordan, wisbech, 20/05/2009 14:44
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And pigs can fly. How any newspaper gives this loser and the Crash Gordon show any air or paper space I don't understand. They have ruined our economy!!
- Moy, London, 20/05/2009 14:39
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Val - don't believe everything you read in the papers, especially the ES!
- Nobby Clark, Perth, Scotland, 20/05/2009 14:26
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How much longer can this un-elected travesty continue? Our economic situation is the worst of world developed markets because we are over-taxed, the government does not have a clue and UK society is a mess because of Nu Labor. The Queen should ask them to resign and leave the economy to the professionals please. We are quickly becoming a big international joke.
- Steveo, London, NW1, 20/05/2009 14:16
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Oh ok then. It's Crash Gordon's bunch saying all is fine. So can we have lower taxes please and can you pay off the debt you put on the taxpayer's shoulder by bailing out all those banks??
- Georgie, Islington, London, 20/05/2009 14:06
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A Christmas present from the government which, once unwrapped, will probably turn out not to be what we'd asked Santa for.
- Jock, London, 20/05/2009 13:00
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I wonder if you will all crow so loud in January when his predictions are proved to be true. You can't bear the thought that he might be right can you. Sadly, you allow your political inclinations to get in the way of what would be good news for the country. I think the worst thing I have learned today, is what I read in the Business section of this paper. It reports that John Wicks, allegedly the Conservative party member responsible for the leaking of the expenses CD to the DT, was working in close collaboration with some members of the Conservative 1922 Committee. It seems they engineered the leaks, thinking it would damage the government. Well, if their treatment of Mr Galley, after he had served his purpose in carrying out Damian Green's dirty work is anything to go by, Mr Wicks will get no support from the Conservative Party. The ES Businss page also says that the expenses troughing started in 1997 when Labour came to power. How do they know that? Did the three main parties collude to take as much money as they could? It is easy to make these allegations which are impossible to prove. We know it was the Tory Whips who told MPs to 'spend it all'when Mrs T introduced the expenses 'scam'. The Tories had 18 years to hone their troughing skills and they are still at it. There are only 2 Conservative names on the DT list of MPs who have claimed the least amount in expenses; the majority of those on that list are Labour MPs.
- Val Daniels, Mijas Costa, Spain, 20/05/2009 12:54
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Well Darling could be right; if those bent MPs hand back their ill-gotten-gains; the Nation will be rich again.
- Mickyinlondon, london, 20/05/2009 12:33
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If only Labour were out by Christmas, someone slap him round the chops with a big wet fish please.......
- Wallytrader, London, 20/05/2009 12:25
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Darling's budget forecast was less than 24 hours hold before it was rubbished by the IMF as too optimistic. Doesn't h ever think to engage his brain before his mouth?
Then again, he's probably been ordered by Brown to say this to make us all feel good about parliament again. But that won't happen until there are new occupants of No's 10 and 11 Downing Street.
- Nobby Clark, Perth, Scotland, 20/05/2009 12:03
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Looks like Darling is trying to turn his hand to comedy now!
- Mike, London England, 20/05/2009 11:46
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......and we all lived happily ever after!!!!!
- Ian, London / England, 20/05/2009 11:06
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A flying saucer has just landed in Kent as well, it's here to take all the economic scroungers back to where they came from.
- P Staker, London ( Home of Democracy, Justice & Integrity), 20/05/2009 10:54
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lets hope its darling who is over by then
- Kedge, marlboro wilts, 20/05/2009 10:51
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Mr. Darling you are not fit to hold office,every BUSINESS person who I have spoken to over the past 6months is predicting the recession will be at least 18 months to 2 years before this Country becomes recession proof.There is a great deal more to come from the Banking world which will make the people of this Country more angry than the MP saga at present.You forget one other major point, and that is to get this country on its feet again the word EXPORTS has to play a major part,and from the survey that BUSINESS MEN carried out the order books are DECREASING every day as other Countries come to grips with their economies...I suggest Mr Darling you speak to the front line businessmen and women who own businesses and not to your so called ''THINK TANK'' cronies,then you will get the real feeling of this economy
- European, Hong Kong China, 20/05/2009 10:46
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Hurrah! I'm cancelling my ticket to France. Calling off the house purchase in Dijon. I'm going to ring the Peugeot dealer and say I don't need that car any more. I'm sending the kids back to school and Grandma back to hospital. It's all roses, isn't it?
- John Problem, Hackney Wick, London, UK, 20/05/2009 10:08
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By Christmas?
What year?
2028?
Maybe 2025 if we don't have a labour government in the next 26 years.
- Antonia H, Newcastle, 20/05/2009 09:48
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Wonder what Crystal Ball he is using or has he got his rose tinted glasses on again?
Nothing he has forcast has been correct and if his last budget is anything to go by he is still sticking a finger in the wind without a clue as to whats correct
- Mike, London England, 20/05/2009 09:41
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"It'll all be over by Christmas" - didn't someone say that in 1914?
- Paul, London, 20/05/2009 09:17
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I would NOT trust Dizzy Darling to operate the till in my local fish shop.
The man is out of his depth - the sooner he is out of sight the better.
- Reuben Camara, Morecambe/Lancaster, 20/05/2009 08:00
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