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Bad day: The pound struggled as Britain's credit rating came under threat

ECONOMY: Shares and the pound hit by UK credit shock

Jonathan Prynn and Hugo Duncan
21 May 2009


The City reacted with dismay today as Britain's “safe as houses” credit rating came under threat for the first time.

A major report into the economy said ballooning government debt meant that Britain faces expulsion from the elite club of the world's most financially stable countries.

The report from ratings agency Standard & Poor's sent a wave of fear through the City, making it one of the worst days for the economy for weeks.

The pound dropped like a stone, falling more than one per cent against both the euro and the dollar.

The FTSE-100 plummeted after the announcement, at one point standing 127 points down at 4342.12, although it later recovered some ground.

Official figures showed public borrowing soared to almost £8.5 billion in April, a record public deficit for the month.

The encouraging recovery in mortgage lending came to a juddering halt with a nine per cent fall last month.

Although Britain has kept its gold-plated AAA rating for now, Standard & Poor's has downgraded its stance on the rating from “stable” to “negative”.

S&P said that if, as expected, public debt exceeds 100 per cent of GDP over the next few years, Britain would be stripped of its AAA status.

S&P credit analyst David Beers said: “The rating could be lowered if we conclude that, following the election, the next government's fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to put the UK debt burden on a secure downward trajectory over the medium term.”

A downgrade from AAA would be a financial disaster for Britain and shatter the last vestiges of Gordon Brown's reputation for fiscal prudence.

Britain's rating has never been downgraded since the system was introduced in 1978 and only the basket-case economies of Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain have been downgraded in Europe since the start of the credit crunch.

A downgrade would make it far harder for the Treasury to fund the massive borrowing programme needed to pay for public spending and the bank bail-out, forcing interest rates to rise and prolonging the recession. The Government has said it will need to issue £220 billion of gilts this year. The news came just a day after the International Monetary Fund said the recovery in the UK is likely to be subdued and called on the Government to do more to repair public finances.

City analysts said it was “a shot across the bows” for the Treasury which could lead to even bigger tax rises and deeper spending cuts than feared.

Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities, said: “Whoever wins the next election, tax hikes and sharp spending cuts will be the order of the day, but today's announcement by S&P puts that much more pressure on the next government to act quickly.”

New official data shows a shocking deterioration in the public finances.

The recession has sharply reduced government tax receipts, especially from the corporate sector and bonus payments, while the Government is having to pay out more in benefits as unemployment continues to rise.

Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets, said: “This is a reality check. S&P think the recession means more red ink and the latest borrowing estimates are unsustainable.”

Reader views (15)

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Economy safe has houses ? yes and the value of them is falling.

- Stan White, leeds, 22/05/2009 06:16
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We have to lose Crash Gordon and that Labor trash.

- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London, 21/05/2009 23:46
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Who the hell is that balding chav in the photo? Nasty tacky watch - obviously not a real trader.

- Clovis, London, 21/05/2009 23:17
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Brown couldn’t get away with it without the support or at least craven acquiescence of 400 Labour MPs who just sit there and watch a lunatic butcher our economic future.

They are all power-crazed, pathologically dishonest misfits.

- Antonia H, Newcastle, 21/05/2009 22:56
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Keith Price is still in complete denial.

HOW SAD.

- Reuben Camara, Morecambe UK, 21/05/2009 17:23
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R James, Bristol - No it isnt, but its is a convenient excuse that gets governments off the hook.
Government policy got us in this mess by letting an asset bubbles grow and burst. In the UK, Gordon Brown had "abolished boom and bust" and refused to recognise any asset bubbles existed. This was despite warnings from the late Eddie George - former Bank of England governor in 2004/5.

- Dave Davies, Basingstoke, 21/05/2009 16:38
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Brown basically said there would be chaos with a Conservative Government....I now see why,did he have prior knowledge of the downgrading?This could cause chaos in financial terms and the fault lies at the doors of 10/11 Downing Street.
This is not a Global problem,its Labour Government problem.

- Nigel, Wimbledon, 21/05/2009 16:28
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Is this the same economy that Darling predicted would be rosy by Christmas?

Christmas 2015 maybe, after a new government has had 5 years to sort it out.

- Nobby Clark, Perth, Scotland, 21/05/2009 16:25
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"Joanna Lumley praises Brown after Gurkha victory"

Yes, despite all there madd hysteria in the Tory press, Gordon is still doing a great job, especially in terms of our economic revcovery which is gathering pace

- Keith Price, Luton, England, 21/05/2009 16:20
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But of course it will be all over by Christmas we shall just print more money!!

- Mike, London England, 21/05/2009 16:17
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ELECTION .... NOW !!! (seriously REALLY urgent)

- Marianne, SW France/London, 21/05/2009 16:11
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It surprised me when shares and the pound seemed to rally strongly in the last two months, when surely it is obvious that thanks to the megga-borrowing/printing of money spree in progress, our credit rating would slip, and will slip further. Answers to our predicament on a post card as they say.

- Jon Kent, Hertford. UK, 21/05/2009 16:09
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I Bet Mr Cameron is not looking forward to winning the next election - it would appear that Gordon is going to leave a booby trap inside 11 Downing Street.

Joe

- Joe, Kiev, Ukraine, 21/05/2009 15:56
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.....but I thought that this was "an International problem caused by the Banks" !

- R James, Bristol, 21/05/2009 15:43
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The Tories would be a disaster if they won a General Election Gordon? How much bigger of a disaster than you are already making?

- Albert Hall, hove england, 21/05/2009 15:36
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