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It started with a ripple but became a political tsunami
Nicholas Cecil, Deputy Political Editor4 Jun 2009
For almost six weeks Gordon Brown has been in the eye of a political storm triggered by the apparently minor email indiscretion of one of his key aides. This is how events unfolded.
12 April: Mr Brown's aide Damian McBride quits over an email smear campaign. It looks like an embarrassment which can be contained - but it sends shockwaves through Labour and casts doubt on Gordon Brown's self-professed "clean politics".
20 April: The Prime Minister is forced into an embarrassing U-turn over expenses after using YouTube to announce proposed reforms. His bizarre grin is compared to The Joker, the other party leaders are not on side and a rebellion kills the most radical elements. Mr Brown is badly damaged.
22 April: The Budget lays bare the debt mountain that Labour is building up to tackle the recession. And days of misery follow as the forecasts for growth crumble in Alistair Darling's face, making him a liability in the face of Tory attack.
29 April: Joanna Lumley leads a campaign which eventually defeats the Government over settlement rights for ex-Gurkhas. The "national treasure" shows up Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and eventually bulldozes the PM into a complete capitulation.
8 May: The Daily Telegraph starts publishing details of MPs' expenses. Brown is the first to be named with an intriguing claim which reveals how his brother organises his cleaning. But the real meat shows a Cabinet with ministers "flipping" second homes without paying capital gains, MPs on taxpayer-funded shopping sprees and a political class with its collective snout deep in the trough. David Cameron gives the impression of action while Mr Brown dithers.
19 May: Speaker Michael Martin is forced by MPs to fall on his sword. Mr Brown eventually wields the axe, but only after obfuscation, dithering and delay. Mr Martin is disgraced, but Mr Brown's authority is weakened.
2 June: Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, children's minister Beverley Hughes and Cabinet Office minister Tom Watson are to quit. The planned reshuffle is in disarray.
3 June: Mr Brown is "stabbed in the front" as Hazel Blears announces her resignation from the Cabinet. He somehow survives Prime Minister's Questions but the talk is of the "hotmail plot" and how many MPs want him to go.
Today: Local and European elections. Mr Brown will try to work out how to bind his Cabinet allies closer.
Tomorrow: First results from the local elections. The scale of the expected wipe-out will be the key. Rebel MPs could launch bid to oust Mr Brown.
Saturday: MPs will be in their constituencies talking to party members, whose views will be shaped by the elections. If a reshuffle is under way dangerous, sacked former ministers will return to the back benches in bitterness.
Sunday: The papers will be scanned obsessively by Mr Brown. Who is speaking out for or against him? And in the evening Labour could find itself fourth in the European elections.
Monday: D-Day. Election results in, reshuffle announced - and the Commons reconvenes at 2.30pm, putting MPs in one place to talk openly of what comes next.
