Tonight:
5°c
It is always rash to assume in politics that things cannot get any worse. For those Labour activists who thought that way after a week of resignations and the party's collapse in the local elections, last night's European results were proof that the party could indeed plumb new depths.
Once it would have seemed inconceivable that Labour could come third after the universally derided Ukip, with a mere 15.3 per cent of the vote, but it did; once it seemed that the Tories would never again gain a seat in Wales, yet last night it overtook Labour there for the first time since 1918.
As for the BNP gaining two seats in the European parliament, largely thanks to disaffected Labour voters, this was not so much humiliating as downright worrying.
For the Tories, last night's showing was good — but by no means outstanding. Their voted dipped under 30 per cent, and while they finished a comfortable 13.3 points ahead of Labour, they lost a large number of votes to Ukip. Plainly the expenses scandal hit them as well as Labour. But David Cameron should beware of seeing Ukip's surge as a one-off: it will take votes off the Tories at the next general election, too, at the same time as keeping Europe alive as a divisive issue in the Conservative Party. Meanwhile, for the Liberal Democrats this was a slightly disappointing night: despite the plunge in the major parties' votes, the traditional beneficiaries of the protest vote picked up just one extra seat.
In some ways, London bucked the trend. Labour kept in second place and the BNP got a mere five per cent of the vote. Plainly, extremists have less appeal in the capital. Meanwhile, the Greens did well here, beating Ukip for fourth place with almost 11 per cent of the vote.
Whatever the European issues, this was largely a vote on national politics — and as such, Labour's catastrophic showing will now be urgently surveyed by would-be rebels: the signs for the party's showing at the next general election could scarcely be worse. Yet those who seek to oust Gordon Brown may have missed their moment. The Cabinet is now bound to the PM once more.
Further, few Labour MPs can now entertain the prospect of an early general election — surely almost inevitable with a second change of leader — with equanimity. A majority, no matter how low their view of Gordon Brown, may now prefer to sit tight until the last possible moment, drawing their salaries and expenses while they still can.
Their job prospects after an election are, in many cases, uncertain and there are only so many seats in the Lords that Mr Brown can fill . In wanting to stay put, Mr Brown and many of his MPs are at one.
For now, then, we are left with a government kept alive only by its members' fear of facing the voters. It is a pitiful sight.
Call off the strike
Unless the unions and London Underground can reach a settlement, there will be a 48-hour strike starting tomorrow evening that will bring chaos to the capital, making life wretched for most of the working population.
The dispute concerns pay and redundancies: London Underground has had to take on the employees of the collapsed Metronet consortium, resulting in duplication of staff.
The unions want a promise that there will be no compulsory redundancies as a result; the management says only that it will seek to avoid them.
The other issue is pay, and overriding all other matters, the question of how to arrive at a pay settlement that will cover the London Olympics in 2012, when the transport unions will effectively be able to call the shots.
Certainly, the unions have the power to cause colossal disruption, and London Underground may have to acknowledge as much with a further, more generous pay deal.
But unions must also acknowledge that in a recession their members, like so many others, may have to accept some job losses and more modest pay settlements.
They risk alienating a public that is weathering the brunt of the downturn. They should call off the strike.
