Morning:
13°c
40C summers in the capital, government study forecasts
Mark Prigg, Science and Technology Correspondent18.06.09
London could regularly have summer temperatures of up to 40C (105F) by 2080, according to a highly authoritative report on climate change.
UK Climate Projections 09, unveiled today by Environment Secretary Hilary Benn, says temperatures could rise on average by between two and eight degrees celsius in London by mid century.
Sea levels are also expected to rise by as much as 36cm. The report says flooding, storms, droughts and heatwaves are all to become more common as a result of rising temperatures, with negative impacts on health, lifestyles and the countryside.
The research, led by the Met Office's Hadley Centre, is the most accurate produced yet.
It breaks the country down into 25km squares and makes predictions for what is likely to happen to the climate over 30-year periods.
"Climate change is going to transform the way we live," said Mr Benn. "These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for."
The Government is publishing a "five-point plan" to cope with the impacts of climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Summer rainfall is likely to decrease by more than a fifth (22%) in the South East and Yorkshire and Humber the report says, while winter rain could increase by 16% in the North West.
More rain is likely to fall on the wettest days, leading to a higher risk of flooding, the climate projections study led by scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre revealed.
Launching the report, Mr Benn said: "There is no doubt about it – climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world today. Climate change is already happening – the hottest ten years on record globally have all been since 1990.
"This landmark scientific evidence shows not only that we need to tackle the causes of climate change but also that we must deal with the consequences.
"The projections will allow us to make sure we have a resilient infrastructure to cope – whether it's the design of school buildings or protection of new power plants, maintaining the supply of drinking water, adjusting ways of farming for drier summers or understanding how our homes and businesses will have to adapt."
Leading scientists have also backed the report.
Dr Paul Williams, Climate Scientist at the University of Reading, said: "Sceptics will no doubt question how scientists can confidently predict the climate of 2080, when we cannot even forecast next week's weather with any skill.
"But climate prediction and weather forecasting are completely different problems. For example, we can say with confidence that July is always warmer than January, simply because more sunlight is received.
Similarly, we can say with confidence that the 2080s will be warmer than the 2000s, simply because of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases."
Professor John Beddington, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser, said: “We now know that some further climate change over the next two to three decades is already unavoidable due to past emissions.
“But what the projections also show is that strong mitigation action now can start to make a real difference by 2050 and lead to very different climate outcomes by the 2080s."
Professor Bob Watson, Defra Chief Scientific Adviser, said: "The UK Climate Projections are the best science to date to help us understand the complexities of the UK climate.
"They are a world first in presenting how probable the level of potential climate change will be against emissions scenarios and will be invaluable to help us plan for a changing future.
"They provide a stark message – some climate change is inevitable but we must act now to limit the severity of that change."
...and here's a chance to buy your own beach
This public beach at Gwithian, Cornwall (above), is up for auction with a guide price of £50,000. It cannot be built on.
Reader views (54)
These scientists can’t even forecast a week’s weather never mind extrapolating 50-100 years into the future.
- Stephend, London, England
Let's face facts here, if their predictions had come out to global cooling or global stabilisation, these guys would be out of a job !
Any predictions are based on 'if, if, if, if' and can't be trusted.
- Cap, london
In 2080 young Milliband will be what?...about 85? So with increased life expectancy he may just about be on the verge of becoming Prime Minister. I hope it's not too hot for him!
Or will Brown be cryogenically revived to thwart him yet again as he once again appears among us to save our planet?
- Steve, London, UK
I wish these so called 'scientists' would give it a rest. More of the general public are more informed about this topic, thanks to the internet, and know that the science behind man-made global warming weak to say the least, yet they still bang on about it. We suspect the reasons are political and of course it is in their interests as it keeps them in employment. How many jobs worldwide depend on man-made global warming? Many thousands maybe. How often do we see articles in the press and media about evidence found to disprove this flawed science? Very rarely. Morally it is wrong as governments are making important policy decisions based on this very dodgy science.
- Simon, London, UK
Yes OK, and this from the people who struggle to forecast the weather 2 days ahead. When I read this stuff, or see the quasi-religious climate change propaganda on the BBC, I ask myself - who benefits? The answer is people who want to control and tax every aspect of our lives, because they don't like people making their own decisions. Ask a global warming freak how the last Ice Age started or finished, it wasn't early humans hunched around their camp fires that caused it.
- Stephen, London, England
Get real. The Met Office cannot tell you what is happening tomorrow, so why do you trust a 70 year projection based on bad science?
- Dave Davies, Basingstoke, Hants
What a shocker that Gordon Brown was involved in the launch of the report - rubbing his hands at the tax potential.
Disgusting man.
- Joanne Smith, London
The population of the UK is increasing every day as a result of uncontrolled immigration. Is anybody seriously pretending we can keep allowing the population of these small islands to grow out of control and STILL reduce our impact on the environment? The ironic thing is that if we took steps to reduce the population, our carbon footprint would fall dramatically.
- John North, London, UK
It'll still rain on Bank Holidays.
- Squiz, Islington
Er, this is 70 years away.
Do we really believe this? I don't!
Yep, we'll be paying more in 'greenhouse' taxes, what a load of BS.
- Steve, London, UK
You just watch, the news that temperatures are going to rise bringing 40 degree heatwaves and the like are just a prelude to more and more tax rises.
Stuff the greens and all other do-gooding climate change fanatics because this is not about saving the planet but fleecing the population at large.
Climate change is a myth in any case, so enjoy it but remember we are all going to pay for it via our pockets of course.
- James Bond, Pinner
what a load of cod - anoher way of conning us into axing us more
- Cathy, southampton united kingdom
What nonsense. These idiots have difficulty forecasting the following day’s weather, never mind that of 2080. It’s just as likely that we’ll be in a mini-ice age in 2080, especially going by the weather we’re actually experiencing this ‘summer’ so far. We might face food shortages this year as many crop growing areas of the world are experiencing the coldest weather in many years, some the coldest in living memory. What’s far more imperative and essential to our existence as an advanced economic society in the near future - is when the hell are those clowns in government going to wake up to the fact that we’ll be back to the stone-age unless they soon decide what the hell’s going to produce electricity when our aging coal and nuclear power stations give up the ghost in the near future.
- William Boreham, mitcham uk
i wish it would hurry up.i could do with a tan
- Russ, london
I like the Public Beach up for auction; if I buy it will it still be public?
And if it gets flooded with Global warming; will I own the sea above it?
- Mickyinlondon, london
It's a crock and just another way to tax you more ... sickening since politicians squander money like drunken sailors!
- Robbie Paramor, Los Angeles, USA
I'm sure all those on here who are denying such climate changes will occur have the same scientific qualifications as those who say it will! Or are they quoting what some bloke down the pub told them! Just because we had a cold winter and it's not blazing hot yet this summer doesn't mean that CC is not happening. If you want evidence that it is, just visit the towns in Australia that were decimated by bush fires stoked up by their hottest day on record. It's happening folks, it's just going to take a while before you really notice it.
- Andy, London
It is 30° C in the shade here today, so in 2080 it will be uninhabitable - I think not. There are too many untested theories published as "research", and not enough joined up, rigorous thinking.
- Andrew, Carcassonne, France
I predict the government will bankrupt the country (again) with green taxes.
These will do little good since 99% of all carbon emissions come from countries other than the UK.
It's feeding time at the trough and the government is filling it up, That's why these the squeals are heard in Westminster and Whitehall as the porkers amble down to be fed. These are heard by a naive or corrupted press
- Minnie Ovens, London, UK
I think Sean Lock described it best when he said
"I think the reason some people care and some people don't is that some people see the planet as something they should be grateful for, something they should nurture and care for and other people see the planet as something you stand on".
- Bob, Cheam
Of course it is going to get hotter. The weather is doing its bit to emulate the micro climate of the country we have become - a Banana Republic.
- Patricia, LONDON
So, the Met Office predicts a climate just like the Romans enjoyed here.
As we all know, they made wine from vineyards just South of Hadrian's Wall.
The global warming was then caused by 4x4 chariots pulled by flatulent horses.
I'm sure the government will raise new "green taxes" on the basis of these
imbecilic predictions.
- Martin, Bracknell England
I don't use plastic shopping bags anymore; so climate change can't possibly happen.
Mind you local councils still use plastic rubbish bags; so maybe climate change will happen?
At least the Government is getting tough with polluters; most shops sell you plastic bags now.
- Mickyinlondon, london
I'm surprised this report wasn't deliberately published in the first week of february this year when snow, ice, hail,and polar winds gripped the country?
- William Grierson, Kimpton-UK
2008 was the year when any pretence that there was a "scientific consensus" in favour of man-made global warming collapsed. Hundreds of proper scientists, including many of the world's most eminent climate experts, have been rallying to pour scorn on that "consensus" which was only a politically-engineered artefact, based on ever more blatantly manipulated data and computer models programmed to produce no more than convenient fictions.
It's now more than 200 years since the great astronomer William Herschel observed a correlation between wheat prices and sunspots. When the latter were few in number, he noted, the climate turned colder and drier, crop yields fell and wheat prices rose. In the past two years, sunspot activity has dropped to its lowest point for 100 years.
Politicians are so fixated on the idea that CO2 is causing global warming that most of them haven't noticed that the problem may be that the world is not warming but cooling, with all the implications that has for whether we get enough to eat.
One contributory factor to the world's food shortage is the millions of acres of farmland now being switched from food crops to biofuels, to "stop global warming".
Last year even the experts of the European Commission admitted that, to meet the EU's biofuel targets, we will eventually need almost all the food-growing land in Europe. But that didn't persuade them to change their policy.
- Kate, London
Gary-ban comments after stories??
Gary I hear the Iranian govt. need people like yourslef!! 
- Russell, London
back in the early 1980's, the govt predicted 40degrees by 1990....in the 1990's they predicted 40 degrees by 2000, in 2000 - yet again the 'experts' predicted 40 degrees by the end of the decade...and now..surprise, surprise....40 degrees by 2080! That lets the 'climate-experts' keep their nice fat tax payer funded grants, and their cosy numpty non-jobs! If they put half as much effort into sorting out a cooler tube system, then we might be interested!
- Gary, amersham
It must be wonderful to have job that allows you to make predictions that few of us will be around to know if they are correct or not.
I predict that by 2080 children will not go to school, they will have miniaturised computers inserted behind the left ear and will have all the knowledge in the world on tap.
The car will be a distant memory and we will travel on moving pavements with different lanes according to the speed and distance you wish to travel.
All the peoples of the world will be friends and will speak an international language.
The population of London will be 240 million and the average house will be 45 storeys high.
Now then, can anybody disprove my theories? Unfortunately I doubt if I'll be around then myself, but I used to read Dan Dare comics as a child so know my predictions are absolutely true.
As an after thought, the huge acreage of rape seed will have made way for citrus orchards and Spain, along with other Mediterranean countries will be skint as we won't need them any more. Dubai will be a forgotten country, hidden under the sand dunes awaiting explorers from future centuries to dig up the modern pyramids.
I think I'll be quite happy not to be around in 2080
- Scotty, Cambridge UK
We all have to remember that the Met Office is a Government run organisation. So they must carry the message so the government can TAX TAX TAX. Plus how are we to believe them on a forecast that predicts the weather in 2080? They can't even predict whats happening today or tomorrow. Take it with a pinch of salt.
- Richard, Cambridge UK
And of course next week, Brown & Co. will begin imposing new taxes to cover the cost of this 'temperature rise'.
- Adam, Harrow, UK
Sounds like paradise.
- Chris Milburn, East Peckham, England
Labour is definitely making things hotter! They are also responsible for all the crime! And unemployment whine whine whine whine ..... Comment sections after news stories should be banned.
- Gary, London UK
Can you trust this corrupt Government on anything they say how?.I hope the people will remember all their lies and misinformation on polling day.
- Alan R, Luton Bedfordshire
If nature is going to warm us up there will be very little we can do about it equally if the opposite happens there is little we can do. I am fully supportive of cutting pollution but how one stops the earth warming or freezing will never be solved by government slapping on taxes...to achieve what? Airlines are going bust thanks to taxes. Its a ridiculous charade
- Sheila, london uk
We'd better get going on those air conditioned tubes then.....
- Kate, London
Is this the same crowd that predicted the long hot summer for this year? Mid summers day is 3 days away.
- Ian, Reading, England
If London hits 40 celsius, the tube and train tracks will all have to be replaced, as they are currently designed to tolerate exapansion arising from temperatures only up to 33 degrees.
- Neil, London, London UK
What a waste of money. They cannot even accurately predict what the weather will do 48 hours ahead, let alone about 70 years. I just want a good summer this year and I really do not care what will happen ahead. Completely selfish I know but we should be worrying in this country over what IS happening and not what MIGHT happen.
Amber in Mitcham
- Amber In Mitcham, Mitcham Surrey
Spare me this drivel on global warming, one big con to raise taxes!
- Stuart, Ferndown, UK
No matter what the actual heat will be, a calamitous increase in cases of skin cancer will change all perceptions of warm social summer experiences.
- William, Haywards Heath UK
Global warming is a hoax.
- Neil, London, London UK
Is this the inverse of no more boom and bust? The most efficient greenhouse 'gas' is water vapour, a tax on hanging out the washing next or maybe swimming pools without covers. BONKERS.
- Mike Mines, london
Stand by for more and more of these scare stories building up to the conference in Stockholm when the west agrees to hand over large sums of money to the developing world. Hilarious listening to the socialist drop kicks explain why its getting colder !!!
- Stuz Graz, Wimbledon, London
And in what way is this a bad thing? Think about it, with the weather so lovely and warm people wont have to leave this miserable little island for a lovely warm holiday. This in turn will stop them flying in planes, and the trustafarian will need something else to moan about, or maybe they might even get a life?
- Daniel, Watford
"there is no causal link between CO2 increases and temperature increases" - Dave Davies
Oh dear! I suppose if dumb down science teaching we should expect such comments.
- Dr Andy Foster, Swindon
What's the problem guys? In Athens we have 42-43C many centuries ago!
- Nikos K, Athens, Greece
A government study will show results in favour of the government's stance on GW, ie that its all our fault! "..we need to tackle the causes of climate change .." ie, we need to find a new way to tax you.
It is only a "prediction"!
- Wen, Oxfordshire
Nobody will live in London in 2080 because it will be so ugly to live in thanks to Livingstone's tower block frenzy across the capital. Thankfully Boris is helping London by planting lots of trees which will stop global warming over the city.
- Kimberley, London
Better start stockpiling brollies, then. Every time an "expert" on the weather starts making predictions on what "could" or "may" happen as a result of climate change, the goold old British weather always comes along to prove them wrong.
- Nobby Clark, Perth, the Scottish one
So why has every year since 1998 been cooler (ave temp)than the previous, yet CO2 levels increased dramatically ? Dont believe me, check it for yourself!!!
Because there is no causal link between CO2 increases and temperature increases. Its all a fat lie.
- Dave Davies, Basingstoke, Hants
All scaremongering rubbish, Britain has already periods in its history when temperatures were much warmer than now. Was then possible to grow grapes in the North of England for example. Just as likely we are heading for a mini ice age with solar activity now in a decline cycle.
If all these taxpayer funded fats cats had been focusing on something more meaningful, such as the probability that the UK economy was heading for the rocks in 30 years time with no money to pay for pensions. Then maybe we would have a future here in the UK to look forward to.
Of course that would take honesty from a corrupt Labour Government, which believes in lie and spend.
- Harry H, London UK
It´s all New Labour´s fault!
- Graham Rodhouse, Helmond, Netherlands
Trouble is we all wait for someone else to do something. No one seems to get the mesage. When i said one day our great granchildren would see the Thames flood London, friends thought I was mad.
Meanwhile every other car is a massive 4 by 4, its normal to fly to Europe for a night, company directors wives are exdom and fly to Britain from their tax haven every week, everyone cuts down tree, has patio heaters, air conditioning, in short no one cares.
That is until, the WATER STARTS TO RISE, and its too hot to go out.
- Alan Green, Woodford Green
Temperatures could also go lower by 2c.
They cant predict what the weather will be like next week never mind in 30 to 40 years. This is the governments way of warming us up for another tax.
- Mr S.Port, London
