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Swine flu virus has mutated in London, scientists warn
Mark Prigg and Anna Davis14.07.09
London has already developed its own mutated strain of swine flu, scientists warned today.
They say the sheer number of infections in the capital has led to the virus mutating into a unique form.
According to the Royal College of GPs, about 12,500 new infections are being reported to London GPs each week.
Wendy Barclay, professor of influenza virology at Imperial College, warned that authorities needed to keep a close eye on London's infections as the virus could mutate into a faster-spreading or more harmful version.
"It is very important to keep a careful look for clusters of severe cases that might indicate that a mutated virus has arisen, which could be more virulent," she said.
However, researchers admit they do not know when this could happen.
Dr Oliver Pybus, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Oxford, said: "Predicting how the virus will mutate is rather like trying to predict the weather in several months' time - virtually impossible.
"The mutation rate of the flu virus is a million times faster than in animals, so it can change very quickly. London will have already developed its own strain of swine flu, even though at the moment it may not act any differently from the rest of the UK strains.
“However, the worry is that it could change, or that should a new, more dangerous version appear anywhere in the world, it will hit London first
because of the number of travellers passing through.”
The warning comes as new research shows swine flu penetrates deeper into the lungs and can inflict more damage than ordinary seasonal flu.
Tests on animals showed that swine flu thrives all over the respiratory system, including the lungs, and causes lesions instead of staying in the head, as seasonal flu does.
Experts also believe swine flu is closely related to the 1918 pandemic strain, which killed up to 40 million. Blood tests show many survivors seem to have immunity to swine flu.
Commenting on the research, Professor Ian Jones from the University of Reading said: “It shows that the new virus is about five times more pathogenic than seasonal H1N1 but that, nonetheless, the major outcome is recovery.”
Experts have predicted half the UK population could contract swine flu this year and 150,000 could die — based on figures which suggest the
H1N1 virus kills about 0.5 per cent of humans who catch it.
Virologist Nigel Dimmock, emeritus professor at the Department of Biological Sciences at Warwick University, said millions would fall ill.
He said: “It would be reasonable to assume that half the population will get flu this year. If that's all swine flu, then that would be a hugely significant number of deaths.”
“The percentage of people killed who contract the virus is believed to be around 0.5 per cent. If half the population catch swine flu then that could mean 30 million times that percentage as a number of deaths — it's an awful lot of people.
“Things are certainly not going to get any better by the end of the year. At the minute everyone is susceptible.”
The news comes after the recent deaths of the first victims of swine flu who were otherwise healthy.
Schoolgirl Chloe Buckley, six, from West Drayton, died on Thursday. She is believed to be the first child in Britain without underlying health problems to be killed by the virus, while
Dr Michael Day, 64, from Bedfordshire, was taken to hospital on Saturday and died the same day.
Click below to see the head's letter to parents with a picture of Chloe
An unnamed patient from Essex was the other victim. The co-ordinated national response to the virus is now in the “treatment” phase, as opposed to “containment”, meaning experts believe the spread of the virus is unstoppable.
Health chiefs are now working to implement a plan to vaccinate at least 30 million people by the end of the year to minimise disruption to public services and industry with people taking
time off work.
Reader views (26)
When I read some of the idiotic comments above I am reminded of why I left my home country years ago.
"It's all propaganda, Scare mongering, Ploy by the drug companies to make big bucks"! The very people who spout this rubbish are the ones that convince other weak minded fools, like themselves, not to take simple precautions such as frequent hand washing and using a tissue when they sneeze. Are the educated classes now in the minority in the UK?
- Crystal Ball, Warsaw
I have had s have swine flu, just recovered, I have severe asthma, first day i had fever, sore throat, aching all over, second day i was so ill i couldnt get out of bed, doctor gave me tamiflu, next day chest was slightly better but i was still very ill, then next day i made some miraculous recovery, Ive had seasonal flu several times and have ended up with chest infections and pnemonia on 2 occasions and this time i dont have infection i dont have pnewmonia so my comparison being that this flu is no more virulant than seasonal flu, in fact maybe milder,
- Rachael Joules, shropshire
Sorry to hear about David McCusker, but "Catch It. Bin It. Kill It" is not enough. The bin will become an open repository of filth. The tissues should be put in plastic bags and closed firmly before being binned! At our local surgery, the doctors still haven't heard of washing hands before and after examining patients!!
- Anne Wotana Kaye, London, England
Caught Swine Flu Twice !
I live in North London
I contracted swine flu 16 days ago and had a temperature of 38.2C. I
was very achy and my whole body was sore. As I am type 2 diabetic I
was prescribed Tamiflu. Within 6-7 days I was 100% better-I felt
perfect.
Then a full week after I felt perfect (during this weekend just gone)
i started with a bit of sneezing and non productive coughing and
suddenly I had a rising temperature. Yesterday evening it went up to
39.95C- i felt even worse than the first time and ~I even had mild
convulsions.
I am now off work and feel very achy from head to toe-my temperature
has dropped to 37.5C. I am waiting to speak with my doctor to see if I
can take the Tamiflu again.
I feel sure that I have caught a more extreme version of this flu this
time round.
- Anthony Cohen, London UK
Forget the vaccine, that may kill you and it won't work anyway if the virus mutates. Instead, treat with Coloidal Silver. Non toxic and kills flu virus (all microbes). With a nebulizer you can inhale it to help with lung infection. Also put drops in your eyes, spray up your nose or take orally.
- Pete, London
We need to listen to the scientists in regard to this pandemic, who are the real experts on this issue. We need to close schools, to stop the spread of the virus as much as possible. Closing for a few months will allow for time for a vaccine to be implemented. As with SARS, it was not the actual virus which killed. A new virus can cause a 'cytokine storm' in the body which means an excess influx of immune cells fighting the infection, in turn causing fluid to build up in the area of infection; in this case, the lungs. This in turn can kill an otherwise healthy individual!
- Rebecca Campbell, Waltham Forest, London
When the economic crisis came, they said we were best placed among developed countries to deal with. When swine flu came, they said we were best placed among developed countries to prevent it become pandemic.
- John, London, UK
I think we are not being told the whole truth about this thing. I have felt lousy for days and won't go to the docs as it will probably pass but supposing it gets worse. I have revently returned from Naples and a plane ride can give you anything these days especially flu, if this is related to anything like 1918 it is already too late
- Stevie, liverpool england
Quote: Sean W., Edmundston, Canada. And the claim about it mutating a million times faster than in animals needs a reference because this is the first I have read of this.
What this means in standard British civil service jargon ‘’Sean’’ is this, it mutates faster in normal human beings that pay taxes; but in animals like Politicians and Bankers it doesn’t mutate nearly as fast etc; this is because they use BUPA and not the National Health Service, where you die of MRSA and other bugs, which in turn proves you had other underlying health problems when you went down with swine flu etc.
I hope this makes it easier for you to understand; but it is a well tried and tested British form of State communication to the punters that pay their wages, and to whom they in return serve honourably and without spin etc………Mick.
- Mickinlondon, london.
"Swine flu" is a giant hoax - don't be taken in by the scaremongering falsehoods. You are being conditioned to accept compulsory mass vaccination - don't be so easily led!
- Neil, London, London UK
We are told that the virus HAS mutated and then that it WILL mutate. If it has then someone needs to sequence it and release that information ASAP. Or else someone needs to get a grip on their temporal location.
And the claim about it mutating a million times faster than in animals needs a reference because this is the first I have read of this.
- Sean W., Edmundston, Canada
Its all down to economics in this country so the rich will get taken care of and the working class will be hang out to dry.Maybe Iran will invade and save us from the hands of our unjust goverment.
- Dave, london
I think the whole story is propaganda to get the sheeple to accept - even demand - the vaccine (which the pharmaceutical companies will make a tidy profit from). I am damned sure I am not having any flu vaccine mandated by this government. I'll take my chances but if the worst comes to the worst then I agree with Reuben as to the deserved fate of the rotten corrupt Establishment.
- David Moon, Seaford, East Sussex, UK
whats cockney swine flu then, when you sneeze do ya shout WATCHA mmmmm WATCHA
- Tony, wigan
I child death is one too many, Gordy spent billion saving his mates in the banks now save us the people
- Ge, Kernow
Flu as we all know is mainly a seasonal illness when our immune system is at its lowest. That is during the winetr months when we get little exposure to the sun. This results in a vitamin D3 deficiency which means a very much higher risk from heart disease, cancer and the flu. D3 (not D) is the sunshine vitamin and it is now considered that 85% of us are deficient. If you want to boost your immunity to any form of flu take 10,000 IUs daily. This is totally safe and will do you lots of good.
- Ralph, London, England
Reuben - are you a professional moaner? Every news story, you have a pop at the establishment, whether it's relevant or not.
Get yourself a hobby, or something to brighten up your life a bit. Blackpool's just down the coast from you. Go and have some fun at the Pleasure Beach! No wait, you'd moan about not being able to moan about news items on ThisIsLondon!
- Jock, London
With London being a major transport hub, it is SO true that London is first in line for the deadly strain. If you don't believe me, then read Max Brooks's "World War Z" for a terrifying account of how a zombie plague could spread around the world in a matter of days - all thanks to air travel. Oh my. First swine flu, now zombies. I think I'm going to stay at home tomorrow.
- Roberto, London is doomed I tell you
This virus is bound to spread like wildfire in the U K. We Brits. are possibly the dirtiest people when it comes to personal hygiene. On holiday, if you see a sweaty oil covered person going in the swimming pool without taking a shower, you can bet it is a Brit. Use toilets at any supermarket and see 8 out of 10 not washing their hands but then handling the displayed food. Thank God for plastic wrapping.
- Frank Johnson, Harrogate
If you get an email saying Swine Flu can be caught from tinned ham, just delete it.
It's spam.
- Colin Amyes, London SE3
I think it has already mutated in London; not long ago there was an infection going around central London; it started with sire throats and a bad chest, it had all the symptoms of flu; but without the runny noses etc; and this infection lasted two weeks, not the normal one week.
I had this infection and so did my wife; and my friends living locally had the same infection as well, so it may already have mutated faster than you think.
If anything Londoners are well equipped when it comes to immunity from diseases; after all we get lots of them from other countries as well as our own; maybe it builds us up slowly but surely to fight the next lot of infections.
Nobody went to the doctors with this bug we had; we just carried on as normal; you see going to the doctors now is pointless; they tell you what is wrong with you; very few ever bother asking us what the problem is etc; so all you get is antibiotics even if they are not needed at all.
God help those that do go down with swine flu; because you ain’t going to get any help at all from this government; they only look after bankers and their own health.
If you doubt this remark; go to your own doctors and ask him or her; have you any vaccines etc? Guess their reply?
- Mickinlondon, london.
I went into my GP yesterday with a very sore throat that makes swallowing difficult. His reaction was that if it wasn't swine flu, I'd probably caught it sitting in his waiting room! He sent me away saying that I should take paracetamol and drinks lots of fluids!!
- David, London
Cockney flu! That´s all we need!
- Graham Rodhouse, Helmond, Netherlands
Like many others, I have been determined not to have the vaccine. But now I'm not so sure!
- Chrissy, Halifax UK
The thing is... The 'healthy' people who have died are still in at risk groups... A 6 year old will not have a fully developed immune system (and is thus more at risk) and a 64 year old will have a weakened immune system (and is again more at risk)... When will people accept that this is just like ordinary flu, except that it has originated from a different source. If people are careful, maintain levels of hygiene and keep themselves at home, dosed up on Ibuprofen then they will be fine! There body will develop a natural immunity to the disease. Stop scare mongering!
- Adam, London, UK
40,000,000 dead!
I am praying that total will include ALL 645 MP's, the entire House of Frauds and every banker in the UK.
- Reuben Camara, Republic of Morecambe, UK
