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Huge spike in calls to GPs about swine flu
16 Jul 2009GPs have seen a leap of almost 50% in the numbers of people contacting them with fears they have swine flu in the last week, new figures suggest.
Around 40,000 people a week in England and Wales are now complaining to their doctor of "flu-like illness", with a huge rise in the number of young children being affected.
The figures, from the Royal College of GPs' monitoring system, showed 50.3 people per 100,000 were reporting flu-like illness between June 29 and July 5.
But this leapt 46% to 73.4 people per 100,000 between July 6 and 12.
Almost one in eight workers are likely to be kept at home with the virus in the next few weeks, according to Government figures expected to be released today.
This could leave many businesses struggling to run as normal, the Financial Times reported.
Sir Liam Donaldson is expected to announce that 30% of the population is likely to be infected during this first wave of the pandemic, the newspaper said.
Yesterday's weekly report from the Royal College of GPs said: "National incidence of influenza-like illness increased for all regions and is now evident in all age groups but remains highest in five to 14 age groups."
The study said the highest number of cases was being seen in central England but the North had seen "a marked increase compared to previous weeks".
There has been a small decrease in the number of cases being seen in London although the capital remains a major hot spot for the virus.
The rate of influenza-like illness is highest among those aged five to 14, at 159.57 per 100,000 population.
The next most affected group is youngsters and babies aged up to four, at 114.12 per 100,00 population.
This is followed by people aged 15 to 44, those aged 45 to 64 and then people aged 65 and over.
The Government insisted today that the swine flu vaccine should begin arriving at the end of August, amid fears of a delay before people receive jabs.
The UK is in line to get around 60 million doses of the vaccine - enough to cover half the population - by the end of December, with the rest of the doses following next year.
The first batches are expected in August and the Government has drawn up a priority list of people to receive the jab.
However, there is expected to be some delay between when the manufacturers, Baxter and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), deliver the supplies and people receive their first vaccinations.
The jab has to be approved by the European regulators, the Government's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) before it can be used.
But there is no current timetable for when the first vaccines will actually be given to patients.
A spokeswoman for the Department of Health said: "The manufacturers have told us that they will be delivering the first supplies of the vaccine at the end of August.
"This is not the Department of Health's schedule - it is led by the manufacturers.
"The vaccine will also need to satisfy regulatory requirements before it can be used.
"We have contracts with manufacturers to supply enough vaccine for the whole population once it has been developed.
"These contracts were set up some time ago to ensure we are first in the queue.
"Creating a new vaccine is a complex scientific procedure but based on the manufacturer's current forecast, we expect to have around 60 million doses by the end of the year.
"These predictions are as accurate as possible considering that manufacturers are dealing with the production and testing of complex biological products."
The comments come after the head of the World Health Organisation said a swine flu vaccine may be further away than has been claimed.
Director general Dr Margaret Chan said: "There's no vaccine. One should be available soon, in August. But having a vaccine available is not the same as having a vaccine that has been proven safe.
"Clinical trial data will not be available for another two to three months."
Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that Dr Chan may be talking about vaccine delivery worldwide.
"There is some uncertainty because vaccine manufacture involves a complex process of testing biological products, so it can sometimes go wrong and cause delays," he said.
"We then have to license it properly and that may take a little time, but we still will be one of the first countries in the world to get the vaccine."
Asked later on if this meant that the arrival of the vaccine would be later than first promised, he said: "Towards the end of August, I think was said. That is still the expectation that we will be get the first supplies then."
NHS Direct released new figures yesterday on the number of calls it is answering about swine flu.
Yesterday, 9,697 calls relating to swine flu were answered, up on the 9,060 answered on Monday.
Almost 1.6 million people have used the online cold and flu symptom checker run by NHS Direct.
The number of UK deaths linked to the virus stands at 17.
