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Swine flu claims 12 lives in four days
Nicholas Cecil and Anna Davis16.07.09
The death toll in Britain from swine flu soared to 29 tonight.
The Government's chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson said 26 people had died in England and three in Scotland since the epidemic began.There have been 12 deaths since Monday. In seven days to last Thursday 55,000 new suspected cases had been recorded.
Health officials are now preparing for a “worst case scenario” of 65,000 deaths this year in what they fear may only be the first wave of the disease.They believe 30 per cent of the population could be infected and expect 0.35 per cent of those people to die.
The latest deaths are those of people who contracted swine flu but many are believed to have had underlying medical conditions.
Six-year-old Chloe Buckley, from West Drayton, died on Thursday night two days after going to hospital. Health officials are refusing to disclose if she was killed by the disease itself.
Today it was also revealed that Cherie Blair, the wife of former prime minister Tony Blair, may have swine flu.
She pulled out of a ceremony to receive an honorary doctorate at Liverpool Cathedral today. The BBC said this was because Mrs Blair had the virus. It came as doctors warned that patients were swamping GPs' surgeries and called for extra medics to be drafted in.
Mrs Blair was said to have felt unwell this week and to have taken Tamiflu. She has reportedly cancelled other engagements while she recuperates.
She is not believed to have passed on the virus and is expected to make a full recovery within days.
The Standard has learned that at least one GP practice is so busy it has cut the number of consultations available for non-swine flu patients.
The Amersham Vale practice at the Waldron Health Centre in Lewisham is receiving so many calls from people worried about swine flu that a GP has been taken off normal duties to carry out telephone consultations.
Dr Louise Irvine, who works at the practice, said: “Locum doctors are needed and they should be deployed to the surgeries under strain.” In total 652 people have now been treated in hospital in England for swine flu. Most of the cases have involved children under the age of 14.
The Health Protection Agency said most people's conditions were “mild” and severe in only a small minority of cases. Worldwide, there have now been 589 deaths recorded as due to the disease, with 120,000 cases recorded around the world.
But there is widespread belief that both figures are much higher.
Ten per cent of the whole population could be off work by the end of next month. Sir Liam said: “There are a range of possible scenarios but it does not mean these will come to pass. This gives the NHS a way of planning round a range of scenarios.”
The national pandemic flu service is set to be up and running by the end of next week, which should relieve pressure on GPs. People will be able to contact the service by phone or online to get medical advice.
Individuals suspected of having swine flu will be issued with a personal number and can send a “flu buddy” to a collection point to pick up Tamiflu.
Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said 16 primary care trusts in London had rates higher than the national average.
The rate of people going to their GP with flu-like symptoms dropped from 180 to 140 per 100,000, but London still has the highest rate in the country.
Tower Hamlets is the worst-affected area in Britain with more than 184 in every 100,000 needing anti-viral drugs. A spokesman for NHS London said: “The number of cases can vary from week to week and it is reassuring to see a drop in figures, but this is not a signal to scale back our approach.”
Dr Field said: “We know the highest rate in the country has been in Tower Hamlets, and there is evidence of it spreading across the capital. GPs reported to me how the workload has increased in the last two to three days and that the deaths in London made patients more anxious.”
The Government insists that a swine flu vaccine will be made available at the end of next month.
Every child aged between three and 16 will be a priority for vaccination.
Reader views (20)
Compare Japan's swine flu policy with that of the UK. The preparations are woeful in comparison - the fact that there have been five years in preparation is risible. UK (ie international) airports should have been monitored but then we like to put our airport business before people's health but was that short-sighted in terms of our own economy.
- Sadie Radcliffe, London
what happened with the government being raedy to deal with this?
That was claimed a month ago.. you'd think by now the Tamiflu would have been stocked in hospitals....
- Josh, London
It shows what liars they are, the flue is not supposed to be available........Yet................I particularly don't care about the female the " Swine"
- Themanoftruth, United Kingdom
Who gives a damn about the Blairs?Did they care about any
one except themselves?Cherie will have Tamiflu on tap,no doubt-sod the peasants-these so-called socialists look after each other."Their people"do not count,contrary to what they say.
- Maura Casey, London UK
Andrew, London:I can think of plenty of men who are equally, if not more, odious than Mrs Bliar!
I do not have the words to express in full my disdain for what this meddling harpy and her treacherous husband have done to this country.
Does that answer your question? LOL!
- Keith Lonsdale, Doncaster
I wonder if the Government Ministers already have received their supplies of Tamiflu. Probability is YES
- Gordonbay, London and Cape Town
Isn't it amazing that Cherie Blair managed to get her Tamiflu straight away! One rule for them and another for the rest of us.
- Jk, London
The sudden acceleration of new cases to 55,000 in seven days is a cause for concern and has nothing to do with panic. Also a cause for concern is the varying mortality rate given by the authorities. The other day Liam Donaldson suggested a 5 in one thousnd death rate, now the HPA projects 3.5 per thousand. When we are getting mixed messages, it is a reasonable cause for concern. Have we got too many people involved> If Liam Donaldson is handling things, why does the HPA have to put its oar in?
- James Elliott, Eastbourne UK
Its a load of rubbish, like the 'globalist' warming scam.
- Arthur, Swindon, England
"More children will die from measles due to non-use of MMR than will die from swine flu."
Now who is scaremongering? In the western world measles is usually mild and benign. Yes, in rare cases there are deaths. But this is usually in children with underlying health problems - a bit like swine flu.
Oh and I hope Cherie gives a dose of swine flu to her odious husband.
- Mary, London UK
We are a bankrupt nation that still throws our borrowed cash at prison building in Nigeria and 65bn for nations that are developing so that they won't develop as quickly as we did and in turn may contribute to 'global warming' which is a euphemism for the weather.
In other words trying to be all Politically Correct things to all people will make us even more broke and take 40-60 years to pay off our debts.
NuLabour - tough on prosperity - tough on the causes of prosperity' - sorry this was about Swine Flu.........
Oh yes I remember now - don't expect NuLabour to get any priorities right.
- Chris Williams, Cardiff
"Odious hag", Keith Lonsdale? What a shame we don't have a picture of you to see how you compare. Or is it only women that have to endure this bile?
- Andrew, London
If you have swine flu you will not be well enough to get out of bed let alone do anything else, if you can get out of bed you dont have it. Take it from me, Ive had this already and its the worst ever.
All that is happening in this country is people wanting to be noticed. If you are well enough to worry you aint sick, leave the docs alone to deal with people who need them.
As aparting comment I wonder how long Cherie Blair had to wait on the NHS Direct line to get her call answered....Oh sorry forgot inthe soviet republic of Britain ruling classes have access to private doctors not like the rest of us citizens
- Jack, Manchester, Soviet Republic of Britain
PLEASE!
This is all becoming absurd - it's a national panic, not a national pandemic (putting aside the niceties of dictionary definitions).
The UK annual death toll on our roads is hovering at around 3,000.
Heart disease kills many times more, as does smoking, alcohol, heroin and cocaine. Those last 3 might be entirely self-inflicted, but cancer is not (other than by contracting an oncogenic virus during a one-night stand).
There will be an awful lot more (than a handful of swine flu deaths) caused by breast cancer and prostate cancer, to name just two.
Can everyone please get a sense of perspective here?
More children will die this year from bacterial and viral meningitis than from swine flu.
More children will die from measles due to non-use of MMR than will die from swine flu.
The non-adoption of MMR was due to flawed research by a discredited clinician, subsequently hyped up by the media. Don't accept all of this doom and gloom stuff. Please listen to an experienced, level-headed microbiologist, and just get on with your lives.
If you are feverish it's because your body is defending you. Leave nature to get on with things, supplemented by rest, and some paracetamol (although I prefer aspirin).
- Richard Cain, Farnborough, Hampshire
Has she got "underlying health problems"?
- Danny, NW5
How apt, a trough-snouting little piggy with swine flu!
I hope the odious hag suffers.
- Keith Lonsdale, Doncaster
Don't worry it only attacks Human beings but i bet she has tamiflu by the box load
- Terry Chambers, London
'Mrs Blair was said to have felt unwell this week and to have taken Tamiflu'
They've just been saying it won't be available for a few months, or is that just for the peasants?
- Mdj E10, london uk
My local medical practice manager told me 48 hours ago that it is a complete waste of time telephoning the Swine Flu information line.
I was advised that in the event I contract swine flu it would last six weeks and I should GO OUT AS NORMAL (and spread the germs to everyone else!).
The NHS swine flu website informs me TO STAY AT HOME.
My local medical practice manager stated: "THE PRIMARY CARE TRUST KEEP CHANGING EVERYTHING EVERY DAY".
What else would one expect from a gaggle of parasite MP's and countless "consultants" and "managers" in the NHS who do not know what day it is?
- Reuben Camara, Republic of Morecambe, UK
No helpline, NoTamiflu. No extra doctors. No helicopters. No extra troops. No this and No that. No money. Niet, niet, niet. Sounds like a Russian Government. Brown has his hand in all this.
- Albert Hall, hove england
