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The new official prediction that British swine flu deaths could reach 65,000 will be a jolt to the public consciousness.
Around 55,000 people reported flu symptoms last week; 29 have died and more than 650 are in hospital with the disease.
London is particularly hard hit, with 10 deaths and most of the nation's hotspots for infection, with Tower Hamlets especially badly hit. Yet the best advice remains to keep calm.
Certainly the figure for predicted deaths is worrying - more than 10 times the average number of extra deaths caused by seasonal flu, and larger than any death toll since the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic.
It is also particularly worrying that the disease is attacking children most. But the 65,000 figure is purely a mathematical extrapolation from current infection rates, and the upper end of a range, the lower end of which is 21,000, in line with seasonal flu epidemics like that of winter 1999/2000.
Thus far the Government has moved quickly: stocks of the antiviral drug Tamiflu are high, and from the end of next week a new pandemic flu service will be available by phone or internet.
The service will dispense Tamiflu prescriptions largely on the basis of self-diagnosis, and there must be some doubts as to the efficacy of this process.
Already it is hard for people to know whether or not they have swine flu: such is the range of severity of symptoms that, especially with young children, it is hard to be sure without GPs swabbing for a proper diagnosis - many in London are not.
Tamiflu is a powerful drug that can produce side effects more serious than swine flu itself in some people. Indeed, a number of deaths worldwide have been linked to the drug.
The Government must spare no expense in allocating funds for drugs and emergency hospital beds.
It is terrible timing, with the public finances already under strain and the nation gripped by recession.
But with calm and compassion for those suffering the disease, we will get through the swine flu epidemic.
Cuts ahead
Today's remarks by Shadow Business Secretary Ken Clarke highlight the continuing unease within the Tory leadership over the party's tax and spending plans.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Clarke makes clear that he believes additional taxes should not fall on businesses, hinting that they should instead target individuals.
He adds that the prospect of setting out detailed spending plans as part of an election campaign fills him "with the greatest horror".
Mr Clarke has a well-known reputation for such plain speaking: this is largely why his return to the front benches last January raised eyebrows.
Nevertheless, his admission risks putting the Tories on the back foot over spending.
Earlier this week he accused Gordon Brown of a "lack of candour" for postponing the next spending review; now his comments will fuel Government accusations that the Tories plan deep spending cuts and tax rises.
Yet his comments are only really a recognition of the unavoidable: whichever party forms the next government, it will have to make painful spending cuts and probably raise taxes, too, even if it manages to avoid increasing the totemic basic rate of income tax.
For the Government of the day to avoid admitting that, as it largely has to date, is more serious than for an opposition.
Mr Brown got the public finances into their current state: the onus is on him to explain the pain that will be necessary to put them right.
Schools out
It may be raining and swine flu raging but many Londoners will still breathe a sigh of relief with the end of the school term today and the start of the holiday season.
There are the usual predictions of gridlocked roads and choked airports but those are passing inconveniences.
School's out, and with it the holidays begin. Whether you spend this first holiday weekend on a beach or in Hyde Park, enjoy it.
Reader views (1)
Bearing in mind how the government has demonstrated its complete lack of intelligence in everything it has done since 1997, does anyone believe they have organised a proper response to swine flu? Organised the provision of huge quantities of the drug? You could run a poll and 60 million people would say 'no chance.' If an MP or two gets it, then there'll be a response but not until. In any event they're off on 82 days summer hols now, so at least we'll be spared the spinning that will go on when it's revealed that what they promised was all lies.
- John Problem, Hackney UK, 17/07/2009 16:15
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