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As counting gets under way in the Norwich North by-election, with a tally expected this afternoon, the Government is resigned to a dreadful result. If, as predicted, Labour lose to the Conservatives, it will be the clearest signal yet of how few really safe Labour seats could be left at the next general election: the previous incumbent, Ian Gibson, had a fairly comfortable majority of more than 5,500.
A Labour defeat is also likely to bring renewed criticism of Gordon Brown's handling of the MPs' expenses row: this is the first by-election since the affair. As we report today, senior Labour backbencher Tony Wright has already today slammed the party's “star chamber” for the high-handed way it treated Mr Gibson, a popular and independent-minded MP who resigned in disgust as a result. That criticism comes at the end of a week which saw Mr Brown's Commons reforms passed only in emasculated form, without the central measure of an attendance allowance first floated by Mr Brown in April in his notorious YouTube performance.
A big loss is likely to bring renewed criticism of Mr Brown's leadership. Yet after the failure of last month's attempted coup, he is under less threat than he was. The only realistic replacement for him is now Alan Johnson, but it is far from clear if the Home Secretary wants the job — and even less likely that Mr Brown would voluntarily step aside. Moreover, with MPs heading off on holiday, a bad result in Norwich has (almost) been factored into expectations. And while the public finances are in horrendous shape, there are growing signs of economic green shoots, with the FTSE celebrating a six-month high and less-bad-than-expected unemployment figures.
Thus the pressure is just as much on David Cameron to prove that he has the momentum to deliver real wins and not just strong opinion polls. An unconvincing performance by the Tory candidate would be deeply worrying to him: if the Tories cannot break through in a seat like this, after Government's catastrophic showing over the past few months, then Mr Cameron will have to rethink his strategy. Not since Alan Partridge has Norwich inspired such anticipation across the political spectrum.
Forgotten wounded
Former prime minister Sir John Major's intervention today over troops wounded in Afghanistan is timely. The rising number of deaths in the past few weeks has tended to obscure the much larger numbers of soldiers being wounded at the hands of the Taliban: the Ministry of Defence says more than 150 soldiers have been badly wounded within a week in recent fighting.
That is a serious military problem: wounded soldiers put greater strain on the army, since not only are they out of action but huge resources are tied up in evacuating and treating them. But the human cost is much worse: some soldiers and their families are forced to live for the rest of their lives with disabilities inflicted on the battlefield, especially by devastating roadside bombs.
Sir John's point is that compensation paid to disabled soldiers, especially those with lifelong physical or mental injuries, is inadequate. He is right: servicemen who have made such huge sacrifices deserve proper support. But we should not forget any of the wounded: they represent the real cost of this war as much as do the dead, and one that will last in some cases for decades.
Bye bye, bendies
The disappearance of bendy buses from the 507 Waterloo to Victoria route tonight will be a small step towards one of the Mayor's key election pledges — but a most welcome one. The nine bendies are the first of 386 on London's streets to be withdrawn; the rest will be phased out by 2011. They were always too big for London's streets and never much loved. It may still be years off but now we look forward to the new-generation Routemaster: now that would be a positive achievement for our bicycling Mayor.
Reader views (1)
Not quite bye bye bendies as not all the replacement Cattle Trucks that Boris has ordered have been delivered yett.
His buses are an accident waiting to happen with a large area in the front section devoid of seats and it will only take a need for the bus to brake sharply and their will be bodies everywhere. And there is no way they will handle to crowds when up to 1000 passengers come off a train every few minutes.
- Melvyn Windebank, Canvey Island, Essex, 27/07/2009 12:13
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